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Hurricane Florence


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Very interesting run by the EURO; however, a majority of the operational models has moved the system to the south approximately 40-60 miles towards the NC/SC border, which the EURO and its ensembles has been showing for many days now. The exceptions are the GGEM and the UKMET. This is why I personally believe the most likely place for landfall is around the NC/SC border at the moment.

I know many want to focus on what happens after 48-72 hours; however, all the models diverge because the storm is expected to slow down or even stall. This makes any forecast after the 72 hour mark extremely difficult, which is why the current cone of uncertainty is over 450 miles wide... 

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9 minutes ago, Jet Stream Rider said:

This has to be a surprising look for folks along the coast south of Charleston that may have considered themselves out of the woods.

 

ecmwf_mslp_uv850_seus_6.png

Yes that would an understatement.  This was unfortunately the exact solution I was worried about early this morning considering the disturbing trends that have developed since last night's 00z run whichI assume had more upper air soundings and data.

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