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Hurricane Florence


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1 minute ago, StormyClearweather said:

It is a bit faster than the other guidance, which is probably a good sign in some ways and a bad sign in others. 

when the models run the ridging stronger its gonna be a bit faster.....exactly how the ridge is aligned matters too....gonna be one of those cases were short term wobbles and such can change the LF spot by 20-30 miles especially with a large eye....still shows the stall and rot over central/eastern NC.... 

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Just now, downeastnc said:

when the models run the ridging stronger its gonna be a bit faster.....exactly how the ridge is aligned matters too....gonna be one of those cases were short term wobbles and such can change the LF spot by 20-30 miles especially with a large eye....still shows the stall and rot over central/eastern NC.... 

Going to be some high rainfall totals again.

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1 minute ago, Cold Rain said:

Going to be some high rainfall totals again.

yep.....real issue is going to be speed though......stalling systems are the worst...but the chances a strong Cat 3 low 4 hitting keep going down as the storm slows in the approach....the approach angle will matter to....with a large eye its gonna be a big impact for a lot of coast....then the angle and speed it moves inland will impact who gets what winds.....the only thing I am sure of at this point is to much rain. 

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40 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Wonder if there are any biases to breaking the ridge down too fast or keeping it in place too long, etc. that would be good to know here?

Here's the 500mb trend on the Euro Ensemble near landfall time.  The anomaly centers in 1) W Alaska, 2) off Pac NW coast, and 3) in SE Canada have sharpened over time....so, after the hurricane leaves the steering influence of the Bermuda High, it's getting stuck in the Carolinas underneath the increasingly more amplified eastern U.S. ridge.

NZFBE3e.gif

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