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Hurricane Florence


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3 minutes ago, griteater said:

In terms of the inland track and rainfall, Euro is a noteworthy jog north from its previous run

Starting to catch on to the ukie, fv3,hmon tracks you think? 

No matter which track it looks like NCs gonna have what's likely to be its worst natural disaster ever.

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2 minutes ago, Ser Pounce said:

Yeah.  I had tomorrow at first. When I went to double check the info I pulled up0 an old link. Sorry about that.

COLUMBIA — Gov. Henry McMaster will order evacuations along South Carolina’s entire 187-mile coastline border starting at noon Tuesday, saying residents and tourists must get out of Hurricane Florence’s potentially devastating path, according to several lawmakers briefed on the plans.

The evacuations are expected to cover some areas inland prone to flooding, including Berkeley County and parts of Dorchester County. 

The eastbound lanes of Interstate 26 heading into Charleston and U.S. 501 into Myrtle Beach will be reversed when the order takes effect, opening all lanes to evacuees.  

 
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5 minutes ago, griteater said:

That seems a bit extreme for Charleston to Hilton Head, but playing it safe

Yes! In my opinion it's not necessary for Charleston, or at least make it effective Wednesday instead. Lots of people are home from work already and now it's a scramble to figure out how not to get trapped on the wrong side of the block tomorrow if we need to go in at all.

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2 minutes ago, griteater said:

That seems a bit extreme for Charleston to Hilton Head, but playing it safe

Maybe for the extreme southern coast, but say a shift of 50-100 miles in a southward direction of the projected Euro track were to occur with only hours to spare...that would bring a large portion of SC into some pretty rough stuff, especially Charleston north and east... Way better to play it safe imho.

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1 minute ago, downeastnc said:

you would expect to see the NHC track at 5pm to not move or shift a tad bit north....I would also expect the inland plots to come east a bit....

That's what I'm expecting. (assuming you meant "now" instead of "not") Hoping the Triangle ends up west of the eyewall in future runs but know that puts you more in the worst zone.

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1 minute ago, Ser Pounce said:

Yes! In my opinion it's not necessary for Charleston, or at least make it effective Wednesday instead. Lots of people are home from work already and now it's a scramble to figure out how not to get trapped on the wrong side of the block tomorrow if we need to go to work or not.

Not only that, but it puts pressure on roads, hotels etc that people from the NC landfall zone will need.

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I don’t wish Florence on anyone and hope all avoid the worst, but selfishly IMBY, I’m pleased with the Euro trend.  Half a foot of rain is bad enough, but I don’t want any part of two feet coupled with tropical storm force winds.  We all love weather and the wonders it brings, but it’s not worth having a couple of huge oak trees on the house.

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Good AFD to save:

Area Forecast Discussion 
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC
 

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-- Highlight Changed Discussion --

000
FXUS62 KRAH 101856
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
255 PM EDT Mon Sep 10 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A front will waver over the Piedmont of NC through Tue. Meanwhile,
Hurricane Florence will track west northwest across the southwestern
Atlantic Ocean between the Bahamas and Bermuda through Wed, then
approach the Southeast U.S. Thursday and Thursday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1105 AM Monday...

Main adjustment to the near term forecast was to add the mention of
locally heavy/excessive rainfall for location primarily west of
highway 1. 12Z upper air analysis and meso analysis depict an
abundantly moist atmosphere over central NC with precipitable water
values 1.8-2.0 inches. The flow from just above the sfc through
300MB fairly unidirectional from the SW.  A mid level trough/shear
axis was noted extending from the southern Appalachians to a vort
max exiting the eastern Great Lakes. This feature projected to edge
slowly east and weaken with time. Meanwhile, a sfc boundary was
analyzed west-to-east in vicinity of the the SC border. This feature
projected to lift slowly nwd later this afternoon. Convergence along
this weak sfc feature coupled with the proximity of the mid level
shear axis will initiate/sustain scattered convection this afternoon
through this evening. Expect the greatest coverage generally west of
highway 1. Due to the deep SW flow, training of showers/storms
appears likely. This could lead to localized flooding, especially in
low lying areas as well as urbanized locations. Due to the presence
of the low level boundary, and the mid level support, scattered
convection may persist through midnight, with convection gradually
diminishing into the overnight.

Extensive low clouds across the Piedmont impeding temperature
recovery at this time. If low clouds persist through 17Z, will
likely need to adjust max temps down a category, especially along
and west of I-85.

Expect a repeat performance of the low clouds and patchy fog
overnight, mainly across the Piedmont and the northern Coastal Plain.
Min temps in the upper 60s-lower 70s.

&&

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
As of 415 AM Monday...

An upr level low/shear axis will weaken over cntl NC on Tue.
Meanwhile in the lwr levels, a surface front will linger and retreat
nwwd across the nwrn NC Piedmont and Foothills, and the sea breeze
will drift inland. These features will again focus mainly scattered
showers and storms, maximized with diurnal heating, Tue afternoon.
Low clouds and areas of fog over the nrn and wrn NC Piedmont are
likely to disperse more rapidly than previous days, with resultant
temperatures more uniformly in the mid-upr 80s throughout cntl NC.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 255 PM Monday...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: As of Monday afternoon,
Hurricane Florence has strengthened to a category 4 major hurricane
with maximum sustained winds of 130 mph. There remains significant
spread in the model solutions, making it difficult and too early to
tell where the most significant impacts within the state will occur.
With the National Hurricane Center anticipating a Thursday landfall
the average track error this far out is between 100-150 nautical
miles, and so there are many details yet to be ironed out. There is
however increasing confidence that North Carolina will suffer
significant impacts from Hurricane Florence and preparations should
be completed as soon as possible.

For residents of central NC, sustained tropical storm force winds
with gusts to hurricane force will be possible. This will likely
cause a significant number of power outages and downed trees across
the area. The greatest risk to residents of central NC will be with
inland flooding. As the storm makes landfall it is expected to slow
down, thus increasing the time Florence remains over the state. This
will enhance the flooding threat and those who already know they
live in a flood prone area need to take appropriate action to make
sure they have a safe place to go during the storm. Now is the time
to have a plan in place and ready to go and to have your hurricane
kits fully stocked. Residents need to be prepared for
potentially long periods of time without power or water.

Stay tuned to the forecast and to messaging coming from NC Emergency
Management for the latest information. You can visit the NWS Raleigh
Tropical page at http://www.weather.gov/rah/tropical for information
from the National Hurricane Center as well as local statements and
forecasts. -Ellis

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY: This stage of the forecast remains very
uncertain, as all of the forecast is reliant on the eventual track,
intensity, and survivability of Florence once it makes landfall. In
general, models tend to be in agreement with a rapidly decaying yet
nearly stationary tropical system overhead by the weekend. This slow
progression will likely keep gusty winds and heavy tropical
downpours active across much of central NC, with potentially several
inches of additional precipitation possible each day. Pinpointing
the areas likely to be hardest hit remains very difficult due to the
wide array of model spread that still exists, so please continue to
monitor for future developments in the forecast. - JJM


&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 140 PM Monday...

Lingering low stratus over portions of the Piedmont, with IFR/low
end MVFR ceilings, will lift into a scattered broken cu field by 21z
with bases 3500-5000ft. Scattered convection will develop over
portions of the Sandhills and southern Piedmont through 21Z. The
threat for scattered convection will increase across the remainder
of central NC after 21Z, persisting until 02Z.  In vicinity of the
heavier showers and storms, anticipate IFR visibilities and MVFR
ceilings, and wind gusts 25-30kts.

After 06Z, areas of low stratus and fog will redevelop across the
northern half of central NC, leading to IFR/LIFR ceilings and IFR
visibilities. The adverse aviation conditions will likely linger
through most of Tuesday morning.

Comparable conditions expected Tuesday night into Wednesday. By
Thursday, the extremely adverse affects of Hurricane Florence may
begin to impact the eastern sections of central NC by Thursday
morning, and the entire region by late Thursday, persisting into
Friday. Aviation conditions are expected to slowly improve expected
by Saturday.



&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...MWS
LONG TERM...Ellis/JJM
AVIATION...WSS
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1 hour ago, Cold Rain said:

So that's not a ton different, but you have to say it is caving to the others a little.  A couple more cycles like today, and SC should be completely out of the woods.

I would think so too, the NE trend with canes is like the NW trend with winter systems, not quite a guarantee but pretty close. With 3 days still to go and a strengthening system I still would think a scrape to OTS is still in the cards, or even a delmarva hit.

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2 minutes ago, Solak said:

@wcnc 4m4 minutes ago

HURRICANE FLORENCE: Flushing phase of lane reversal will begin at 8 a.m. tomorrow in Columbia as SCDOT prepares to reverse lanes of I-26 between Columbia and Charleston. They will flush from Columbia to the I-526 interchange in Charleston.

 
 
 
 
 
 

Huge mess coming tomorrow. Nobody's employers were contacted ahead of time so it's a mad scramble everywhere to figure out exactly where things are being closed and whether people need to come in to work. My wife is supposed to come in according to her manager (works at a doctor's office), but it's unclear whether she would actually be able to get home or not!

 

Details may be coming at the Charleston County press conference at 4.

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