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Hurricane Florence


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17 minutes ago, Solak said:

11:00 AM AST Mon Sep 10
Location: 25.0°N 60.0°W
Moving: W at 13 mph
Min pressure: 962 mb
Max sustained: 115 mph

I thought the GFS had Florence going in a more wnw direction by this point. Staying west this long can not be good for the South Carolina coast and gives the Euro solution more creditably. 

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14 minutes ago, Solak said:

11:00 AM AST Mon Sep 10
Location: 25.0°N 60.0°W
Moving: W at 13 mph
Min pressure: 962 mb
Max sustained: 115 mph

Florence has been moving practically due west the last 6 hours...straddling 25.0°N.

For those wondering about how unusual this scenario is with Florence, interesting graphics were produced several days ago...

On Sept 5...only a few impacted the US where Florence was on this date.  A few days later, a new graphic from I believe Weather Underground showed since 1851, 67 storms passing within 200 miles of Florence... ZERO made a US impact...

Florence likely will be rewriting the rulebook.

imrs.jpeg

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Just a couple of notes: Thank you again everyone for all the great posts! Thank you Solak for all the latest info!

The previous advisory showed a WNW direction I think and now we are back to straight W. Maybe just a transient variation, but something to watch. As No snow for you noted above, this would favor the more suppressed track of the Euro.

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2 hours ago, Sportybx said:

Hi all down in SC and NC . I spend my vacation every year down in Litchfield beach and this past year while on vacation my son was diagnosed with luekimia . He was air flown from litchfield to Charleston SC children’s hospital . I’ve made some amazing friends while down there and honestly everyone from the south that I’ve met have been so friendly and nice . Helped my family out in the worst of times . So if this hurricane hits I just want you all to know we here in the Bronx are praying for all you . You all are amazing people and I hope all your family and friends are all safe . 

God bless you all 

Thank you!  We will be praying for your son and family as well through his sickness!! 

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1 minute ago, Jet Stream Rider said:

Just a couple of notes: Thank you again everyone for all the great posts! Thank you Solak for all the latest info!

The previous advisory showed a WNW direction I think and now we are back to straight W. Maybe just a transient variation, but something to watch. As No snow for you noted above, this would favor the more suppressed track of the Euro.

A lot of people are reading to much into the wobbles right now,the last few frames show a more WNW motion.....the storm is suppose to still be mostly W right now and its right on the GFS track which doesnt get it to 26N until 63W so thats mostly WNW from here....but the Euro and GFS tracks dont differ that much in the short term so its not favoring the Euro by staying west right now...

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2 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

A lot of people are reading to much into the wobbles right now,the last few frames show a more WNW motion.....the storm is suppose to still be mostly W right now and its right on the GFS track which doesnt get it to 26N until 63W so thats mostly WNW from here....but the Euro and GFS tracks dont differ that much in the short term so its not favoring the Euro by staying west right now...

Yes agreed, its a good point. I thought about that as well. Everyone is looking for anything to hang our hat on. We will likely be watching for just how much will the high pressure ridge break down and how fast will the more northern component take over (if at all) even as it approaches landfall on Thursday. 

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10 minutes ago, Jet Stream Rider said:

Yes agreed, its a good point. I thought about that as well. Everyone is looking for anything to hang our hat on. We will likely be watching for just how much will the high pressure ridge break down and how fast will the more northern component take over (if at all) even as it approaches landfall on Thursday. 

Yeah if there is a bigger turn north than modeled it wont probably show up till very late in the game....which is why hurricanes suck.....though in this range you expect smaller corrections....I expect the outliers to meet in the middle so I still say Kure Beach up to Emerald Isle is still IMO the best bet for landfall....

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