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Hurricane Florence


TalcottWx
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11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

SC coast is gonna be wiped clean . Could be similar to PR last fall

Thankfully the Carolinas have a much better infrastructure than PR.. their power grid was practically held together by rubber bands and duct tape prior to Maria. Though if the south trends continue this could suddenly become a Florida problem. 

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Euro is again a SC hit.  Unlike the GFS which brings the storm inland and then up through NE as a soaker the Euro just stalls it in the Carolinas while they get epic rainfall.  Either way an OTS scenario is getting less and less and someone on on the east coast is going to get a wholp.  Especially with a southern solution, the storm will be a major at landfall.

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44 minutes ago, Modfan said:

This concerns me (at least being in FL) Ukie did the best with Irma last year and has had a North FL/GA line type of track; hoping it comes no further south!

That track could mean a landfall on places like Jacksonville and Savannah that never seem to take a fresh-off-the-ocean hit.

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1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

12z Euro ENS. Are no help

AL06_2018090712_ECENS.png

Mmm, yeah they are...

The straight up 'eye-baller' mean is right down the middle of that spread, and that is about spot on the operational guidance - therein offers a general theme that supports a landfall SE coast.

Whether that theme is correct?  different call - but that could be construed actually  as not bad agreement when using the blend and comparing to the operational version.

Although, on the right hand side of that ... is that picking up the forecast track some two days out or -  ...i'm asking because it doesn't appeal (otherwise) like they are initializing the position very well.. 

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