Jump to content
  • Welcome to American Weather

    Register now to gain access to all of our features. Once registered and logged in, you will be able to contribute to this site by submitting your own content or replying to existing content. You'll be able to customize your profile, receive reputation points as a reward for submitting content, while also communicating with other members via your own private inbox, plus much more! This message will be removed once you have signed in.

sbos_wx

Hurricane Florence

Recommended Posts

On 9/15/2018 at 10:42 AM, Typhoon Tip said:

Indirectly related to the present discussion...

My biggest concern with this Florence handling has been the Media's portrayal. 

The cinema they produce is staggering ... I mean, the 'calculated' adjective rotations they ply to 'jolt' the masses into following along ...turns these sort of specters into cash-cows for them. Call it 'cry wolf' phenomenon... it just gets saturating to the point of being jaded by them. 'Oh, right - 'nother one of those.'

I hate that...

However (ironically) if those uncertainties in intensities (and however much that also pertains to track guidance... et al) are as enigmatic (which may be too strong of a word in its own rite) as y'all are elaborating... I guess the bias on the 'over-sell' side is probably got a hidden blessing to it.  Like, if society and media et al wait around to clear up uncertainties, it would be too late in most cases; then, ...we are talking about the difference between death and perhaps mere inconvenience for having gone through a prep course proven less than necessary -

Therein is a deeper rub, too - that 'unnecessary'   - because, it is necessary until it is proven not, is too often forgotten when peering back at the end result - which of course is less than entirely fair. 

In any case, getting folks to board up windows and chain their eaves, pick up lose lawn flotsam ...generally secure property and or evacuate, I almost wonder if that should just be built into a region's sort of prerequisite requirement for living there - in an ideal world, I'm sure that people that live from Long Island, NY to Brownsville, TX within some 50 nautical miles of the shore, would just accept that every five to ten years of climo they're taking a few days off from normal life whether they want to or not, and just roll with that. 

Until such time as those uncertainties become less guiding -

Interesting that I've been in that boat for the first time in my life. Living on a flood plain, I have to accept it's going to happen. Last time it was 6" of rain in 12 hours that did it. I'm sure many would not put up with the idea that every 10 years or so your house will be inundated... But as long as you're safe, it's manageable. Our main issue was the power outage which affected the whole region for 4 or 5 days. Other than that, I was somewhat surprised that we were able to go from a completely flooded lower level - 3 feet of water or so - to completely back to normal in less than a week. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah I'm sure he put himself in a location that enhanced the wind (ie near a structure or between two barriers), as I know how this works...they go look around for the best footage and locations that viewers will find exciting. Still though, I bet there's some embellishment but it's not because he's trying to get viewers, but because he loves exciting weather and was in the heat of the battle.  

You can never truly take out the inner weenie...

In the last couple of days his crew has released a statement in his defense. But he set up exactly as I suspect, with a building to his right (our left) which had wind whipping around it.

I mean it works double, protects his crew and allows him to step into the more extreme conditions. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Such a strange evolution of the remnants of Florence. 

The high PWAT air mass is drawn north into a convergent zone that has fairly good consensus near the MA/NH border. That squeezes out the heavy rain. But the actual core of Florence gets cut off from the trough and slides SE and back out to sea. The level circulation very clearly goes back into the Atlantic across the Chesapeake.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

Such a strange evolution of the remnants of Florence. 

The high PWAT air mass is drawn north into a convergent zone that has fairly good consensus near the MA/NH border. That squeezes out the heavy rain. But the actual core of Florence gets cut off from the trough and slides SE and back out to sea. The level circulation very clearly goes back into the Atlantic across the Chesapeake.

Winds should be pretty minimal I would imagine

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
29 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Winds should be pretty minimal I would imagine

Yeah, I mean we're definitely not getting into decaying TC type wind. South of the warm front may be "breezy" but not really looking like more than a 25 knot gust.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Florence was a dodged bullet...sure, the flooding was destructive, but this could have been orders of magnitude worse.

Many in the main thread try to distract from that by focusing on IKE, blah, blah, but there is a big difference between a cat 4 and a cat 1.

I'm sorry....different ball game...case closed.

That being said, I do agree that the SS scale is outdated and poorly communicates the wide array of threats associated the tropical systems. This was still a dangerous situation, but not at all what it could have been.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Florence was a dodged bullet...sure, the flooding was destructive, but this could have been orders of magnitude worse.

Many in the main thread try to distract from that by focusing on IKE, blah, blah, but there is a big difference between a cat 4 and a cat 1.

I'm sorry....different ball game...case closed.

That being said, I do agree that the SS scale is outdated and poorly communicates the wide array of threats associated the tropical systems. This was still a dangerous situation, but not at all what it could have been.

You just have to look at the Wrightsville Beach surge. Far far lower then hazel. Another factor that hasn’t received much attention is the limited population affected. The big population centers in North Carolina are well inland unlike further up the coast. Take Charlotte or Raleigh and place them where Wilmington is and you have a whole other animal  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Florence was a dodged bullet...sure, the flooding was destructive, but this could have been orders of magnitude worse.

Many in the main thread try to distract from that by focusing on IKE, blah, blah, but there is a big difference between a cat 4 and a cat 1.

I'm sorry....different ball game...case closed.

That being said, I do agree that the SS scale is outdated and poorly communicates the wide array of threats associated the tropical systems. This was still a dangerous situation, but not at all what it could have been.

Don't say that in the main florence thread you'll get crucified.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not sure what thread to post this in but a real hard forecast in my region coming up.  Florence rain up and out!  Where does the swath set up?  Up until the 18Z GFS I was just north of the rain on both models giving me basically no rain to speak off.  Then the GFS comes north to give me 2".  Glad this is not a snow situation.  Huge bust potential through my towns up here.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Florence was a dodged bullet...sure, the flooding was destructive, but this could have been orders of magnitude worse.

Many in the main thread try to distract from that by focusing on IKE, blah, blah, but there is a big difference between a cat 4 and a cat 1.

I'm sorry....different ball game...case closed.

That being said, I do agree that the SS scale is outdated and poorly communicates the wide array of threats associated the tropical systems. This was still a dangerous situation, but not at all what it could have been.

dodged bullet, plenty of warning and still the death toll is climbing.  Up to 32 as of this evening. (maybe some bad luck but probably a lot of bad decisions)

I will say, this reinforces just how difficult it is to get anything much above Cat 2 N of 30 degrees Latitude.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

dodged bullet, plenty of warning and still the death toll is climbing.  Up to 32 as of this evening. (maybe some bad luck but probably a lot of bad decisions)

I will say, this reinforces just how difficult it is to get anything much above Cat 2 N of 30 degrees Latitude.

Imagine what the death toll would have been if it came in at 130mph...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

dodged bullet, plenty of warning and still the death toll is climbing.  Up to 32 as of this evening. (maybe some bad luck but probably a lot of bad decisions)

I will say, this reinforces just how difficult it is to get anything much above Cat 2 N of 30 degrees Latitude.

Some bad decisions but some don’t have the means to get out of town, unfortunately. 20% of Wilmington’s population of 120k is under the poverty line. To put into perspective, Bridgeport CT of 152k is 18%. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Some bad decisions but some don’t have the means to get out of town, unfortunately. 20% of Wilmington’s population of 120k is under the poverty line. To put into perspective, Bridgeport CT of 152k is 18%. 

Oh' I know.   Can you imagine the toll in modern day Bridgeport and New Haven if a repeat of 1938 rolled through?  Hartford and Springfield?   I would venture hundreds killed by trees alone...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Oh' I know.   Can you imagine the toll in modern day Bridgeport and New Haven if a repeat of 1938 rolled through?  Hartford and Springfield?   I would venture hundreds killed by trees alone...

More trees in CT now than in the '30s as agriculture shifted away from the state. I shudder to think what a contemporary beast of that magnitude would do. Think about how long it took to restore power in the hard hit towns after the May 15 tornado/macroburst. Imagine that on a regional scale. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, Hoth said:

More trees in CT now than in the '30s as agriculture shifted away from the state. I shudder to think what a contemporary beast of that magnitude would do. Think about how long it took to restore power in the hard hit towns after the May 15 tornado/macroburst. Imagine that on a regional scale. 

The CRV population has grown exponentially since then too.  It would be an infrastructure nightmare.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This thread's probably scrolled for good reason but ... I'm getting a chuckle out of the overnight model runs.

They are using sheared and/or in whole, remnant Florence vorticity field to regenerate/generate either a new TC, or a zombie Florences. Said vestige was advected seaward from off New England over night and is getting pressed back SW on a broad retrograde parabolic motion that brings it near Bermuda than close to the SE Coast again...  

Some models are doing this more coherently than others, but they all have some semblance of a similar behavior at least hinted the same.   

Wouldn't that be a hoot -

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As an afterthought/memory ... I recall a few 'cockamammy' looking GFS runs earlier last week when this was still just in CV transit that did perform big loops - it's just that it was doing it more so with an intact Flo' ...taking it off the EC then SE of CC ...performing a loop and then zipping it to England.  

There may be something to be said for that similarity on whole -  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×