Ginx snewx Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 57 minutes ago, Tanith said: That must be one strong flagpole, lol. Those waves are amazing! Looks pretty scary underneath too https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a-gJoO9A6so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Looks pretty scary underneath too https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a-gJoO9A6so Old Glory taking a beating. I've been watching the fryingpan webcam all day. Winds got to be near/at hurricane strength now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 4 hours ago, sbos_wx said: Yeah, anyone downplaying it just doesn't have a grasp on the severity of this storm. The problem is the "playing" part of the word, because it goes in both directions... Folks from all levels of [supposed] sophistication, ...be it that word smithy yolk at the end of the block on some Internet rant, or the mass-media enterprise at large that's long lost anything resembling the Journalistic Integrity set forth by the forefathers/virtues of news... they all engage in an up and/or down spinning. The whole lot of it all does a tremendous disservice to longer term 'believability'...when (not if) the time comes that the actual characteristic of whatever, really needs to be believed. There's another particularly egregious circumstances/reality we've arrive upon as a human society ...where it's been exposed ... gullibility is an epidemic - seriously. There really is unbalanced dearth in thoughtful objective consumption of information that permeates all, compared to the amount of information that is available. That's dangerous. Society(s) may or may not have always been that way - we are talking about the lowest common denominator, to which ... hate to say, usually comes with sagacious wit as a premium to put it nicely. But the internet and so many random walks of life now given a podium to sound off... it's pretty revealing what the base-line is. e-gads.. But I digress.. If that were all not enough ... probably related to all that on some level or another, some people don't act upon the exposure to threats until they are shock-jocked into doing so... Which unfortunately requires that same wheel of 10 C adjectives to get them to respond. Oy ...can't win huh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 53 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: The problem is the "playing" part of the word, because it goes in both directions... Folks from all levels of [supposed] sophistication, ...be it that word smithy yolk at the end of the block on some Internet rant, or the mass-media enterprise at large that's long lost anything resembling the Journalistic Integrity set forth by the forefathers/virtues of news... they all engage in an up and/or down spinning. The whole lot of it all does a tremendous disservice to longer term 'believability'...when (not if) the time comes that the actual characteristic of whatever, really needs to be believed. There's another particularly egregious circumstances/reality we've arrive upon as a human society ...where it's been exposed ... gullibility is an epidemic - seriously. There really is unbalanced dearth in thoughtful objective consumption of information that permeates all, compared to the amount of information that is available. That's dangerous. Society(s) may or may not have always been that way - we are talking about the lowest common denominator, to which ... hate to say, usually comes with sagacious wit as a premium to put it nicely. But the internet and so many random walks of life now given a podium to sound off... it's pretty revealing what the base-line is. e-gads.. But I digress.. If that were all not enough ... probably related to all that on some level or another, some people don't act upon the exposure to threats until they are shock-jocked into doing so... Which unfortunately requires that same wheel of 10 C adjectives to get them to respond. Oy ...can't win huh shrooms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Whatevs, I am pretty certain that my mom's car that is sitting in a parking lot about 5 miles inland from Cape fear is never going to be driven again. I hope they have a place to go back to, luckily they are on the third floor of their condo building. The water has been the issue with the stall and dump of 20+" of rain on top of the storm surge, and that doesnt appear to have improved at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 12 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Whatevs, I am pretty certain that my mom's car that is sitting in a parking lot about 5 miles inland from Cape fear is never going to be driven again. I hope they have a place to go back to, luckily they are on the third floor of their condo building. The water has been the issue with the stall and dump of 20+" of rain on top of the storm surge, and that doesnt appear to have improved at all. There are going to be a lot of bunk cars on the used market in a few weeks and there are going to be a lot of stray dogs up for adoption. My younger rescue is a hurricane Harvey refugee. We don't really have space for a third rescue or I'd go for it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 54 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: shrooms 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 Why does everyone get mad when someone states the obvious-it looks like dog dung va 2 days ago. That’s fact. Doesn’t mean it isn’t dangerous though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 1 hour ago, weathafella said: Why does everyone get mad when someone states the obvious-it looks like dog dung va 2 days ago. That’s fact. Doesn’t mean it isn’t dangerous though. People are very strange beings, only Tip can figure out their motives. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 1 hour ago, weathafella said: Why does everyone get mad when someone states the obvious-it looks like dog dung va 2 days ago. That’s fact. Doesn’t mean it isn’t dangerous though. It's endemic to tropical threads and always has been. Who the hell knows why ...but for some odd reason, people have short fuses and knee jerk to vitriol on pettiness as subtle as giga motions in a TC track monitoring it seems - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 13, 2018 Author Share Posted September 13, 2018 Ventrice fears it's entering a period of RI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 13, 2018 Share Posted September 13, 2018 She’s exploding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: She’s exploding Lawrence or Florence? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: She’s exploding It's massive and dangerous, nothing else to say really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 Based on radar, she's looking a little healthier with less dry air intrusion from the south. I wouldn't be surprised if winds are bumped up by a few knots. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 Can't see anything on that Frying Pan Shoals webcam anymore, but man is the sound of the wind intense. Holy crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 Looks so much better on radar presentation...my friend took her family to stay with friends in Jacksonville, nc Im not sure if that wS a great choice for evacuation. By 2pm, Emerald Isle was already flooding from storm surge and power went out in Jacksonville where my friend is staying... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 Isn’t Ryan streaming? Come on man.....be our blue shed guy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 5 hours ago, ice1972 said: Isn’t Ryan streaming? Come on man.....be our blue shed guy Just please don’t be that met that is live who looks like they can barely stand...in 40mph winds. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 16 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Just please don’t be that met that is live who looks like they can barely stand...in 40mph winds. Saw on the weather channel one of them wearing a helmet and it wasn't bad at all yet.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 15 hours ago, Hoth said: Can't see anything on that Frying Pan Shoals webcam anymore, but man is the sound of the wind intense. Holy crap. Yeah. It looks like they have the cam set to a past recorded feed now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 91KT gust at ILM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 17 minutes ago, dendrite said: 91KT gust at ILM. 2nd highest in their history. Ryan and Ekster nude on the beach right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 21 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: 2nd highest in their history. Ryan and Ekster nude on the beach right now. Looks like they need help. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 16 minutes ago, dendrite said: Looks like they need help. lol! really people?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 So prelim track verification is coming in now, and the winner is... the GFS. It had the lowest MAE each of days 1 through 5 for the life of Florence. The Ukie was a close second, but had the added bonus of never biting on the breakdown on the ridge and north turn early on. The Euro suffered mainly from a left of track bias early on (though still recurved). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: So prelim track verification is coming in now, and the winner is... the GFS. It had the lowest MAE each of days 1 through 5 for the life of Florence. The Ukie was a close second, but had the added bonus of never biting on the breakdown on the ridge and north turn early on. The Euro suffered mainly from a left of track bias early on (though still recurved). I wish they would run those stats over the last week, because the GFS has some Bizzarre solutions east of the Outer Banks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 But yeah the euro was definitely a little too left biased early on. Once it settled down it did have the idea of being directionally correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 It seems the Florida super ensemble, that the NHC Heavily weighs their decision heavily on, did a real nice job. Wish we could see that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 14, 2018 Share Posted September 14, 2018 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I wish they would run those stats over the last week, because the GFS has some Bizzarre solutions east of the Outer Banks. I know. I'm also curious how they get the FV3 to not over-intensify TCs like the GFS does (especially when slow or stalled). They are both uncoupled to the ocean (don't upwell cooler water), but the FV3 doesn't have the same deepening bias. It almost would seem like they have a "brake" on the TCs, which doesn't seem like something you want for truly intense storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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