tamarack Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 16 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Storm surge and flooding are always the greatest threat Only exception to that rule that comes to mind was Andrew - IIRC, it came ashore at/near low tide and kept moving, though an hour of 100-150 wind is pretty good at trashing things. Edit: Family with homes one town behind ILM and at 25'+ elev (don't have their street address - might be 50+) have headed for Charlotte, one hopes to a place on high ground. Their house is engineered to withstand 130 mph, but this language from MYR - Damage greatly enhanced by large projectiles - might make that engineering worthless when some 500-lb object comes crashing thru the walls at 75 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 12 minutes ago, mreaves said: And this man is weenie tagged? Hopefully you boarded up your house and made the right preparations for the heavier showers we may or may not see next week from Florence. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 12, 2018 Author Share Posted September 12, 2018 22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Hopefully you boarded up your house and made the right preparations for the heavier showers we may or may not see next week from Florence. Actually just had a torrential downpour. It appears the ridge is weakening and it will make landfall on Long Island. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 I'm worried about the enhanced dews we will feel from this catastrophic event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 12, 2018 Author Share Posted September 12, 2018 4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I'm worried about the enhanced dews we will feel from this catastrophic event I will see you after the storm, my friend. Prayers up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: It's not entirely impossible that this thing spins down... coming ultimately over land as a weakened(ing) entity. Not entirely, but in some amount of IKE ... The Euro almost shows that with the mid level components of the vortex opening up some over Sunday while it's still technically not yet onshore. Thing is, the waters within 50 or 60 naut miles of the Carolines are quite warm, but not as thermally charged as it is some 100 mi farther out across the breadth of the g-stream. Such that a spinning near stationary tumult could overturn some of the thermalcline - much to the chagrin of the media-machine that's profitizing so well off their 'button pushing' Nothing would please me more than to somehow dullard the affect of this thing... and, have them look like giant a-holes for this whole saga .. .Huh! But then again, they'd just blame it on the Meteorologist and the common hoi polloi, with their stunningly razor sharp analytic insights/judgement, would have no problem following along with that spin and situate their criticism at the "right" source. Tip, It might have been you that made a post like this last year with Irma. Sometimes once a hurricane goes through a period of RI and then levels off or slowly weakens it never gets it's act 100% back together again. Even though shear is weak and SST are warm I wonder if Flo will hold server or just slowly weaken from this point on. I doubt we will see the winds increase back up over 140 or 145mph. Eye has temporarily become cloud filled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 You know what? Im so done with stupid people. Ive been talking with a friend who lives on Emerald Isle, NC. A barrier Island. She just texted me and said she may not evacuate her family because the track has shifted south so it is not goingnto be bad anymore. I had been chatting with her for almost 2 hours about how bad things could get and storm surge combined with wave height and the fact that there is only 1 main route on and off Emerald Isle and it could get flooded out. And her power could be off for weeks...it will at least be off for days, and how there will be no emergency services if they realize they have made a big mistake and need to be evacuated. OH MY GOD!!! I just cant deal with stupid anymore. So be it, if **** hits the fan and people are stranded and need help but it's too late, i wont feel bad at all. She and her neighbors who want to stay, the only thing they heard out of all the info was Track Shifted South...and to them, it means all the bad stuff has gone away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 47 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: Actually just had a torrential downpour. It appears the ridge is weakening and it will make landfall on Long Island. I'm under a flood advisory and worried as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 5 minutes ago, #NoPoles said: You know what? Im so done with stupid people. Ive been talking with a friend who lives on Emerald Isle, NC. A barrier Island. She just texted me and said she may not evacuate her family because the track has shifted south so it is not goingnto be bad anymore. I had been chatting with her for almost 2 hours about how bad things could get and storm surge combined with wave height and the fact that there is only 1 main route on and off Emerald Isle and it could get flooded out. And her power could be off for weeks...it will at least be off for days, and how there will be no emergency services if they realize they have made a big mistake and need to be evacuated. OH MY GOD!!! I just cant deal with stupid anymore. So be it, if **** hits the fan and people are stranded and need help but it's too late, i wont feel bad at all. She and her neighbors who want to stay, the only thing they heard out of all the info was Track Shifted South...and to them, it means all the bad stuff has gone away. I do not think it's so much about stupidity as people wanting to look out for what they have. And in many cases it's about people hoping for the best. I think for many people it is a difficult position to be in. After all they are leaving behind essentially everything they have worked their entire lives for. And you are speaking with someone(her) who probably has a lot of fear about the entire situation. It's always easier to be outside of the situation than being directly in the situation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 8 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: I do not think it's so much about stupidity as people wanting to look out for what they have. And in many cases it's about people hoping for the best. I think for many people it is a difficult position to be in. After all they are leaving behind essentially everything they have worked their entire lives for. And you are speaking with someone(her) who probably has a lot of fear about the entire situation. It's always easier to be outside of the situation than being directly in the situation. It also may depend on where on Emerald Isle they are....much of the interior part of that barrier island is actually in the 20-25 feet above sea level range with several areas over 30 feet, so it is fairly safe from surge. Obviously if they are lower down, then I would think it is very foolish to stay. As long as they don't mind and are prepared for being without power for a week-plus, then I could see staying there. I think I personally would get out, especially with kids.....but it's not as obvious as, say, Wrightsville Beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It also may depend on where on Emerald Isle they are....much of the interior part of that barrier island is actually in the 20-25 feet above sea level range with several areas over 30 feet, so it is fairly safe from surge. Obviously if they are lower down, then I would think it is very foolish to stay. As long as they don't mind and are prepared for being without power for a week-plus, then I could see staying there. I think I personally would get out, especially with kids.....but it's not as obvious as, say, Wrightsville Beach. She is in a good spot to be relatively safe from storm surge. But she has not prepared any supplies for staying. I told her she could be without power for weeks, and she may only be an isolated spot not effected by storm suge. Staying in your house is the not the determing factor whether or not your house gets demaged or destroued. You choosing to stay in your house just determines if you and your family will get destroyed or damaged as the same time your property is getting destroyed or damaged. Hey, so be it for those people who choose not to evacuate. But i wont feel bad for them if they gamble and loose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 32 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: I do not think it's so much about stupidity as people wanting to look out for what they have. And in many cases it's about people hoping for the best. I think for many people it is a difficult position to be in. After all they are leaving behind essentially everything they have worked their entire lives for. And you are speaking with someone(her) who probably has a lot of fear about the entire situation. It's always easier to be outside of the situation than being directly in the situation. What's the difference - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 1 minute ago, #NoPoles said: She is in a good spot to be relatively safe from storm surge. But she has not prepared any supplies for staying. I told her she could be without power for weeks, and she may only be an isolated spot not effected by storm suge. Staying in your house is the not the determing factor whether or not your house gets demaged or destroued. You choosing to stay in your house just determines if you and your family will get destroyed or damaged as the same time your property is getting destroyed or damaged. Hey, so be it for those people who choose not to evacuate. But i wont feel bad for them if they gamble and loose. Yeah there is no doubt that if you choose to stay, then you have to prepare for a long time without regular services like electricity and running water. If she hasn't prepared for that, then it is foolish to stay...especially if there are kids involved, who will have a tougher time adjusting to such conditions. I'm not sure I'd want to gamble the house would be fine anyway where she is because that area could still get some pretty big winds....like 100+ gusts could still be on the table there. Whats worse than not having electricity and water? Not having electricity and water without a roof over your head. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yeah there is no doubt that if you choose to stay, then you have to prepare for a long time without regular services like electricity and running water. If she hasn't prepared for that, then it is foolish to stay...especially if there are kids involved, who will have a tougher time adjusting to such conditions. I'm not sure I'd want to gamble the house would be fine anyway where she is because that area could still get some pretty big winds....like 100+ gusts could still be on the table there. Whats worse than not having electricity and water? Not having electricity and water without a roof over your head. She has a husband 2 kids a dog and a cat. We both grew up in Medway and went through Hurricane Gloria. Gloria was strong enough to knockndown trees in our area. And power was out for a handful of days, and roads were blocked because of downed trees. Was Gloria a Hurricane by the time her effects got to our area? Maybe??? Prob not...but she packed quite a punch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Moonlit Sky Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 57 minutes ago, #NoPoles said: You know what? Im so done with stupid people. Ive been talking with a friend who lives on Emerald Isle, NC. A barrier Island. She just texted me and said she may not evacuate her family because the track has shifted south so it is not goingnto be bad anymore. I had been chatting with her for almost 2 hours about how bad things could get and storm surge combined with wave height and the fact that there is only 1 main route on and off Emerald Isle and it could get flooded out. And her power could be off for weeks...it will at least be off for days, and how there will be no emergency services if they realize they have made a big mistake and need to be evacuated. OH MY GOD!!! I just cant deal with stupid anymore. So be it, if **** hits the fan and people are stranded and need help but it's too late, i wont feel bad at all. She and her neighbors who want to stay, the only thing they heard out of all the info was Track Shifted South...and to them, it means all the bad stuff has gone away. That's...not great. I was just on vacation in Emerald Isle. I went for a run daily and my run tracking app suggests that half the island away from the Atlantic side beach is below sea level. There's literally one bridge off Emerald Isle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Evacuating sucks too, I can sympathize with people wanting to ride out the storm at least away from surge prone areas. Need to stockpile food and water and gas though.. One thing that people don't think about is after the storm your car may be damaged, the roads may be impassable and stores/services my not be available. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 12 minutes ago, bobbutts said: Evacuating sucks too, I can sympathize with people wanting to ride out the storm at least away from surge prone areas. Need to stockpile food and water and gas though.. One thing that people don't think about is after the storm your car may be damaged, the roads may be impassable and stores/services my not be available. Yes, evacuating sucks... but to stay put and your choice of planning is to hope for the best, and not have any supplies??? Im not a fan of that at all... its stupid and there is no other way to describe it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 22 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: What's the difference - Tip. When someone is fearful they do not think right for the most part. And that makes the decision making process all that more difficult. Yes people should put their safety and the safety of their loved ones first BUT they are also usually very concerned about their personal belongings. The great unknown is not knowing what they are going to return to and that not only includes their personal belongings but also their lifestyle and livelihood. The majority of us here have never been in a situation that has required us to make that decision. Who knows how most of us would respond in that situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 It is better to evacuate and find out you didnt need to, than to not evacuate and have your roof blown off and your only bridge to the mainland under water, and not have a few weeks worth of supplies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 36 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah there is no doubt that if you choose to stay, then you have to prepare for a long time without regular services like electricity and running water. If she hasn't prepared for that, then it is foolish to stay...especially if there are kids involved, who will have a tougher time adjusting to such conditions. I'm not sure I'd want to gamble the house would be fine anyway where she is because that area could still get some pretty big winds....like 100+ gusts could still be on the table there. Whats worse than not having electricity and water? Not having electricity and water without a roof over your head. Even if the house is built to withstand those wind speeds, can it survive 50-100 lb debris moving nearly as fast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 1 minute ago, tamarack said: Even if the house is built to withstand those wind speeds, can it survive 50-100 lb debris moving nearly as fast? Probably not. That's why most people should just evacuate. I'm sure there are some people who know what they are doing who could stay and ride it out. But those are few and far between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Another terrible Euro run for ILM to CHS. The eye just crawls SW along the shore towards CHS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah there is no doubt that if you choose to stay, then you have to prepare for a long time without regular services like electricity and running water. If she hasn't prepared for that, then it is foolish to stay...especially if there are kids involved, who will have a tougher time adjusting to such conditions. I'm not sure I'd want to gamble the house would be fine anyway where she is because that area could still get some pretty big winds....like 100+ gusts could still be on the table there. Whats worse than not having electricity and water? Not having electricity and water without a roof over your head. The odd thing is when people talk about how well their house is built and all of this macho type talk about survival and "toughing it out". It was probably mentioned before, but if you have a cat 5 resistant house then good for you. But unless you have a completely self sustaining property to go along with it it won't matter if the one lane road is impassible for days, and there is no power, gas, or water as well. ...Plus you make the job of the rescuers and other emergency people that much harder. 1 hour ago, #NoPoles said: It is better to evacuate and find out you didnt need to, than to not evacuate and have your roof blown off and your only bridge to the mainland under water, and not have a few weeks worth of supplies Definitely keep us informed on how your foolish friend makes out down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 Anyone know what ever happened to the GOES floater satellite images on NHC website? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 1 hour ago, #NoPoles said: She has a husband 2 kids a dog and a cat. We both grew up in Medway and went through Hurricane Gloria. Gloria was strong enough to knockndown trees in our area. And power was out for a handful of days, and roads were blocked because of downed trees. Was Gloria a Hurricane by the time her effects got to our area? Maybe??? Prob not...but she packed quite a punch. You're not old enough to remember Gloria...no way... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 9 minutes ago, MarkO said: Anyone know what ever happened to the GOES floater satellite images on NHC website? Mark, I use this site https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso-meso1-02-48-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Moonlit Sky Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 12 minutes ago, MarkO said: I haven't looked at winds, but a good part of Emerald Isle is above 500 year flood. There should be places to evacuate too as well. That's not to say I agree with them staying, but if I were there I'd probably stay as well. Welp--the house we were staying in is underwater there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 39 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: You're not old enough to remember Gloria...no way... Dude, im 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 12, 2018 Share Posted September 12, 2018 13 minutes ago, #NoPoles said: Dude, im 40 I’m a bit younger than you and even I remember it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 12, 2018 Author Share Posted September 12, 2018 Just now, dendrite said: I’m a bit younger than you and even I remember it. I'll be 30 in 3 years which should frighten all of you OLDDDDDDD folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now