Hurricane Florence

[tunafish]

27 minutes ago, #NoPoles said:

Where can i find a good storm surge simulation? I have friends evacuating emerald isle, nc

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/092646.shtml?inundation#contents

[MarkO]

FEMA has a kmz file you can overlay on Google Earth that shows 100 and 500 year floods:

https://hazards.fema.gov/femaportal/wps/portal/NFHLWMSkmzdownload

[#NoPoles]

Jeez, my friend just told she is evacuating to Jacksonville. I think she will be driving closer the the most destructive area

[NECT]

22 hours ago, CT Rain said:

Not sure yet but probably somewhere inland a bit. No desire to get stuck or to drown. 

Lol. I didn't think you'd be heading to OBX. It's more of a comment on how fragile of an existence there is down there. OBX is basically a thin strip of land in the middle of the Atlantic. A decent storm surge could have a long lasting effect.

[weathafella]

3 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

 There is  no denying that the Carolinas have experienced some bad Tropical systems.   My original post that, whineminster responded to, was referring to the fact that historical precedent indicates anything N of Fl or the Gulf Coast is unlikely to landfall above Cat 2.

Maybe Florence becomes the anomaly to that but we wait and see. 

Is that true historically?   I seem to recall many NC hits of cat 3ish.  Not much different vs FL/Gulf actually.   Can someone verify?

[NECT]

3 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

 There is  no denying that the Carolinas have experienced some bad Tropical systems.   My original post that, whineminster responded to, was referring to the fact that historical precedent indicates anything N of Fl or the Gulf Coast is unlikely to landfall above Cat 2.

Maybe Florence becomes the anomaly to that but we wait and see. 

TS Maria, which I think was a Hurricane for a short time, floated around offshore of the NC coast last year, and brought some pretty significant flooding to OBX. A major hurricane making landfall near there could be really bad.

[NECT]

4 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

A very good friend of mine, her husband and 2 dogs moved to Mrytle Beach last year.  About 3 or 4 miles inland.  New modest home.  No trees.  They bought a generator last winter when they got an inch or snow and lost power.  They have plenty of gas for it.  They are asking me for advice.  Do they travel hundreds of miles trying to find a hotel or ride it out?  She knows Im a weather geek and asked me to call this eve after looking at the latest models.   My thinking is that if the eyewall comes ashore or partially ashore 50 miles north in the Wilmington area they would at okay at first.  West offshore wind.  By the time the storm drifts SW it would be downgraded somewhat.  So they would definitely loose power but be okay that far inland from major structural damage.  A new home built to code could handle 80-85mph gusts. If I had a new home that far inland I would hesitate to just pack up and leave not knowing when I could return.  

I'd defer to the NWS. Maybe they'd be OK, but here's the local NWS statement for Myrtle Beach.

Hurricane Florence continues to approach the Carolina coast as a
major hurricane. The likelihood of of life-threatening storm surge
inundation, damaging winds, and flooding rainfall across southeastern
North Carolina and northeastern South Carolina continues to increase.
Life-threatening conditions will also continue in the surf zone at
area beaches. The worst conditions are expected to occur later Thursday
into Friday.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Protect against life-threatening wind having possible devastating
impacts across interior southeastern North Carolina and
coastal northeastern South Carolina. Potential impacts in
this area include:
    - Structural damage can be expected to sturdy buildings, with
      some suffering severe or total destruction. Complete
      destruction of mobile homes and other poorly constructed
      buildings is likely. Damage greatly enhanced by large
      projectiles. Locations may be uninhabitable for a significant
      period of time.
    - Numerous large trees may be snapped or uprooted, along with
      fences and roadway signs gone.
    - Many roads will become unsafe and impassable from large debris.
      Many bridges, causeways, and other elevated roadways will
      become impassable.
    - Extensive power and communications outages can be expected.
    - Many vessels will break free from their moorings.

Also, protect against life-threatening wind having possible extensive
impacts across interior northeast South Carolina.

* SURGE:
Protect against life-threatening surge having possible extensive
impacts across southeastern North Carolina north of Cape Fear.
Potential impacts in this area include:
    - Large areas of deep inundation with storm surge flooding
      enhanced by battering waves. Structural damage to buildings is
      likely, with several potentially washing away. Damage will be
      compounded by floating debris. Some locations may become
      uninhabitable for an extended period.
    - Inundation is likely to impact vulnerable homes along tidal
      creeks and waterways farther inland.
    - Drinking water and sewer services will likely become impacted
      by the storm surge. Surge waters will contain hazardous
      materials.
    - Large sections of coastal roads will become flooded, or
      wash-out altogether.
    - Severe beach erosion is expected with significant dune loss.
      Sands from displaced dunes will likely deposit onto the barrier
      island roads.
    - Major damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers is
      possible. Many small craft broken away from moorings,
      especially in unprotected anchorages with some lifted onshore
      and stranded inland.
    - Navigation may be difficult, especially near inlets and
      waterways, as some navigational aids may be off station or
      missing. Debris is possible in the waterways and other
      navigable channels.

Also, protect against life-threatening surge having possible
significant impacts across northeastern South Carolina and the
coast of Brunswick County NC.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
devastating impacts across southeastern North Carolina. Potential
impacts include:
    - Extreme flooding from rainfall may prompt numerous evacuations
      and rescues.
    - Rivers and streams may overwhelmingly overflow their banks with
      deep moving water. Creeks and ditches will become severely
      flooded and contain strong currents.
    - Flood waters may enter numerous structures, and some may become
      uninhabitable or washed away. Road scours or complete road
      failure is likely in many locations, along with the potential
      for sinkholes. Many streets and parking lots will flood, and
      may be impacted by swift, flowing water. Numerous road and
      low-lying bridge closures are likely with some weakened or
      washed away. Driving conditions will be very dangerous.
    - The delivery of drinking water and sewer services may be
      interrupted. Flood waters may be polluted and contain hazardous
      materials.

Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
limited to extensive impacts across northeastern South Carolina.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts
across southeastern North Carolina. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Tornadoes can cause damage to trees, vehicles, boats, and
      buildings. Unsecured mobile homes and poorly constructed
      structures are particularly vulnerable.

Elsewhere across northeastern South Carolina, little to no impact is
anticipated.

[40/70 Benchmark]

http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2018/09/powerful-hurricane-florence-continuing.html

[Rtd208]

 

[Modfan]

21 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Lol. There’s a reason why canes don’t hit those areas directly . Shape of coastline . It’s got MYB to Cape Fear all over it

Looks like my idea of a GA/SC hit looking better.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

On 9/8/2018 at 8:45 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

GA/SC threat increasing. gfs otl with track and intensity, as usual.

Red tag this guy. 

22 hours ago, Modfan said:

I think this goes close to Savannah/SC line, SW trend not done

and maybe even red tag this guy too.

[Damage In Tolland]

18 minutes ago, Modfan said:

Looks like my idea of a GA/SC hit looking better.

It’s coming right into ILM. Then SW

[Modfan]

14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s coming right into ILM. Then SW

I was thinking of a more direct hit in that area vs the Matthew track along the coast lol!

[Baroclinic Zone]

Latest has this not moving inland at all until at least 00z Sunday.  Just wobbles ans straddles the coast and comes onshore in SC on the GFS and GA on the Euro.

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Latest has this not moving inland at all until at least 00z Sunday.  Just wobbles ans straddles the coast and comes onshore in SC on the GFS and GA on the Euro.

Devastating coastal flooding in those scenarios.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Yea, interior SE have escaped the 1/500 year flood solutions. Now the coast faces a Tyson uppercut and an ear bite. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

45 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Devastating coastal flooding in those scenarios.

 Yeah, but at least that scenario affects a much smaller portion of the population and should result in far fewer human casualties. People on the coast are much more likely to flee a hurricane than people inland are to flee potential catastrophic flooding. 

[TalcottWx]

13 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

 There is  no denying that the Carolinas have experienced some bad Tropical systems.   My original post that, whineminster responded to, was referring to the fact that historical precedent indicates anything N of Fl or the Gulf Coast is unlikely to landfall above Cat 2.

Maybe Florence becomes the anomaly to that but we wait and see. 

This isn't about strength. It was *surely* be a cat 4~ when it approaches. The seas will *surely* rise like a cat 4 (even if it weakens in terms of strength). The rains will *surely* be catastrophic. 

[dendrite]

27 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

 Yeah, but at least that scenario affects a much smaller portion of the population and should result in far fewer human casualties. People on the coast are much more likely to flee a hurricane than people inland are to flee potential catastrophic flooding. 

Maybe, maybe not. That's quite a stretch of the coast, and a bit inland in upstream rivers, that would see water piling up...especially with it crawling southward.

[Baroclinic Zone]

11 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Maybe, maybe not. That's quite a stretch of the coast, and a bit inland in upstream rivers, that would see water piling up...especially with it crawling southward.

That's my feeling.  This is unfolding to be an epic flooding event for the Southeast.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

23 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Maybe, maybe not. That's quite a stretch of the coast, and a bit inland in upstream rivers, that would see water piling up...especially with it crawling southward.

 I have spent zero time on the coast of the Carolinas so I really don't know the infrastructure and topography.   I agree that if the water is coming at you in both directions the potential for massive damage is there. My statement was more about coastal folks being much more prepared than inland residents in terms of "knowing when it's time to go".

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

 I have spent zero time on the coast of the Carolinas so I really don't know the infrastructure and topography.   I agree that if the water is coming at you in both directions the potential for massive damage is there. My statement was more about coastal folks being much more prepared than inland residents in terms of "knowing when it's time to go".

Google up a google map with Satellite view and look at the development on the coast from Hatteras to Myrtle beach, then imagine 5 to 6 tide cycles of surge up to 13 feet with 20 to 30 ft waves. Theres a lot of property going by by. If this goes as modeled it will completely transforn the coast line.

[Whineminster]

19 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Google up a google map with Satellite view and look at the development on the coast from Hatteras to Myrtle beach, then imagine 5 to 6 tide cycles of surge up to 13 feet with 20 to 30 ft waves. Theres a lot of property going by by. If this goes as modeled it will completely transforn the coast line.

is the surf up on south facing beaches yet? I can get down to the Cape this weekend but not until Sunday, I wanna swim in some big waves. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Google up a google map with Satellite view and look at the development on the coast from Hatteras to Myrtle beach, then imagine 5 to 6 tide cycles of surge up to 13 feet with 20 to 30 ft waves. Theres a lot of property going by by. If this goes as modeled it will completely transforn the coast line.

It's not quite as low lying as the Bayou of LA/MS but it's flat low lands.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

17 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Google up a google map with Satellite view and look at the development on the coast from Hatteras to Myrtle beach, then imagine 5 to 6 tide cycles of surge up to 13 feet with 20 to 30 ft waves. Theres a lot of property going by by. If this goes as modeled it will completely transforn the coast line.

Just looked, wow, I shake my head that type of building was allowed.  That Atlantic Beach -> Cherry Beach area is just stupid development feet from the beach. 

[mreaves]

10 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Just looked, wow, I shake my head that type of building was allowed.  That Atlantic Beach -> Cherry Beach area is just stupid development feet from the beach. 

Remember, the NC legislature decided they didn't need to worry about sea level predictions 

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/north-carolina-sea-level-rise-hurricane-florence_us_5b985a87e4b0162f4731da0e

[Typhoon Tip]

3 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Latest has this not moving inland at all until at least 00z Sunday.  Just wobbles ans straddles the coast and comes onshore in SC on the GFS and GA on the Euro.

It's not entirely impossible that this thing spins down... coming ultimately over land as a weakened(ing) entity.  Not entirely, but in some amount of IKE ...  The Euro almost shows that with the mid level components of the vortex opening up some over Sunday while it's still technically not yet onshore.  

Thing is, the waters within 50 or 60 naut miles of the Carolines are quite warm, but not as thermally charged as it is some 100 mi farther out across the breadth of the g-stream.  Such that a spinning near stationary tumult could overturn some of the thermalcline - much to the chagrin of the media-machine that's profitizing so well off their 'button pushing' 

Nothing would please me more than to somehow dullard the affect of this thing... and, have them look like giant a-holes for this whole saga .. .Huh!  But then again, they'd just blame it on the Meteorologist and the common hoi polloi, with their stunningly razor sharp analytic insights/judgement, would have no problem following along with that spin and situate their criticism at the "right" source.

[Weatherexpert]

This is going to be a life threatening storm surge for those in the target. For those of us in the New England area expect heavy rainfall as well as wind. Never be too careful. Listen to your instinct they will always be right. This is Weather expert logging off. Stay safe my friends and we will meet again after the storm.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

That's my feeling.  This is unfolding to be an epic flooding event for the Southeast.

Agree. I previosuly meant way interior like VA and NW NC escaped epic floods. Coast and just inland would be crushed. 

[mreaves]

1 minute ago, Weatherexpert said:

This is going to be a life threatening storm surge for those in the target. For those of us in the New England area expect heavy rainfall as well as wind. Never be too careful. Listen to your instinct they will always be right. This is Weather expert logging off. Stay safe my friends and we will meet again after the storm.

And this man is weenie tagged?