FlashFreeze Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 getting ready to head back north knowing that whenever I’m able to get back here my place will be uninhabitable or perhaps gone, this whole place will look totally different, I really feel for the people who have no place to go, it’s ominous knowing that there’s just about guaranteed devastation three days away, it’s surreal, today is an absolutely beautiful day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 10, 2018 Author Share Posted September 10, 2018 2 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Ha. Yes, we say south of Morehead even. Bet ya a round of beer at a gtg I may eventually go to within the next 10 years. Sounds good. I have landfall north of Morehead. I am due for a g2g. Don't think I've been to one in the past five years. Something ALWAYS comes up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 eps ticks south again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: Sounds good. I have landfall north of Morehead. I am due for a g2g. Don't think I've been to one in the past five years. Something ALWAYS comes up. I’ve never been. Weekdays for anyone with a job outside of EMA is tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 10, 2018 Author Share Posted September 10, 2018 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I’ve never been. Weekdays for anyone with a job outside of EMA is tough. Just noticed you're from Southbury, that's where my gf is from. (OT) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: Just noticed you're from Southbury, that's where my gf is from. (OT) That's where my mom lives too. ...Interesting. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 10, 2018 Author Share Posted September 10, 2018 5 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: That's where my mom lives too. ...Interesting. I could take this in so many weird directions I don't know where to begin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 10, 2018 Author Share Posted September 10, 2018 I have so much trouble finding the spaghetti models and ensemble with individual member tracks on weathermodels.com ...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 4 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: I have so much trouble finding the spaghetti models and ensemble with individual member tracks on weathermodels.com ...... spaghettimodels.com? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 8 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: I have so much trouble finding the spaghetti models and ensemble with individual member tracks on weathermodels.com ...... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 10, 2018 Author Share Posted September 10, 2018 12 minutes ago, JC-CT said: spaghettimodels.com? No... The new Maue site. It's so damn confusing. Only paid for it two days ago to gear up for winter. So much cheaper than wxbell too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 1 hour ago, sbos_wx said: This is horrific for the Appalachians. Upslope + Harvey rain. Exactly. Wanna go? Good thing the Appalachians aren't that populated. Hopefully Army Corp has lowered some pool levels in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 24 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: I have so much trouble finding the spaghetti models and ensemble with individual member tracks on weathermodels.com ...... He hasn't moved them over, they are on weather.us still https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/799-w-396-n/2018091012-240.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 22 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I think he meant the other kind of model, like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 10, 2018 Author Share Posted September 10, 2018 7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: He hasn't moved them over, they are on weather.us still https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/799-w-396-n/2018091012-240.html Really stopped paying attention for that time period when he moved over. Last time I had one bookmarked was wxbell. Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 6 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: No... The new Maue site. It's so damn confusing. Only paid for it two days ago to gear up for winter. So much cheaper than wxbell too. Maue is probably worth paying for because of the graphics alone. Pretty top notch stuff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 00z EPS was more or less right on the SC/NC border for mean track, with the 12z CMC and GEFS at the NC/VA border after a bit of a loop. I haven't seen a mean track yet for the 12z EPS, but based on the spaghetti it looks like it won't have moved far from the SC border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 8 minutes ago, bobbutts said: I think he meant the other kind of model, like 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, Hoth said: LMAO Seinfeld classic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 A big chunk of eps members are into SC. Only a couple north enough where sbos gets his free beer while I hang out with his gf. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 So Florence is moving 3 tics W 1 tic N. SC is where she goes I mean blows, wait, ah fagget-a-bout it. If fact to the left of guidance since W track took over. A MONSTER! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 10, 2018 Author Share Posted September 10, 2018 37 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: 00z EPS was more or less right on the SC/NC border for mean track, with the 12z CMC and GEFS at the NC/VA border after a bit of a loop. I haven't seen a mean track yet for the 12z EPS, but based on the spaghetti it looks like it won't have moved far from the SC border. Kinda have a feeling this chews a bit further north into the high as we saw when it was originally a major. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 Reading the 5pm NHC discussion they mentioned that new disturbance heading towards the Gulf. Looking pretty healthy late this afternoon. If the SE ridge gets broken down sooner than later wouldn't that perhaps give the southern solutions more credence? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 57 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: Kinda have a feeling this chews a bit further north into the high as we saw when it was originally a major. Jay, to me what current guidance is showing matches climo likeliest. So it would be hard to go against that given how the US coast is laid out and current progs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 33 minutes ago, weathafella said: Jay, to me what current guidance is showing matches climo likeliest. So it would be hard to go against that given how the US coast is laid out and current progs. Does the disturbance near the Keys influence a more North or South track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 how long has it been since New England was truly inline for something this notorious ? I guess we had a couple of winter storms... 2015 ...but it just isn't the same. Seems we reside in a charmed protection around here - nice.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: how long has it been since New England was truly inline for something this notorious ? I guess we had a couple of winter storms... 2015 ...but it just isn't the same. Seems we reside in a charmed protection around here - nice.. I still think October 2011 snowstorm was the real impacting event...the volume of long term power outages was pretty incredible. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 11 minutes ago, Modfan said: Does the disturbance near the Keys influence a more North or South track? I thInk no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 16 minutes ago, Modfan said: Does the disturbance near the Keys influence a more North or South track? The ensemble sensitivity is pointing towards influence on Florence being "local." Local on the north side though. It's the ridge building over the top that really forces the northern/eastern or southern/western solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 19 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: how long has it been since New England was truly inline for something this notorious ? I guess we had a couple of winter storms... 2015 ...but it just isn't the same. Seems we reside in a charmed protection around here - nice.. The 18Z GFS was interesting since it has Flo looping around in the Carolinas long enough for the trough coming down from Canada yanking it NE through us as a 985mb low, around day 8. Any chance of that happening? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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