dryslot Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 On 9/7/2018 at 2:49 PM, dryslot said: Carolinas So am I Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 OP GFS track has wobbled some but has not deviated far from the same general path it's had over the last 6-8 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 Cat 4 now. Bombs away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 Rapid intensification to a Cat 4. Stronger storms more poleward. Since this has intensified quicker than models a more northward path. I'm favoring the GFS. 12Z keeps Florance stall offshore. So at this point, the greatest threat would be extreme NC. Intense hurricanes have the extreme winds in the eyewall. If that remains just offshore damage will be much less. Will be interesting to see if the 12Z Euro starts caving towards a more NE solution or continues to hold ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 I’ll go euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 GFS is curious but brutal for the Carolina shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: I’ll go euro. Same here. The GFS solution while interesting looks odd. What are the odds of that looping scenario playing out? I want to see what the FV3 shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, nutmegfriar said: GFS is curious but brutal for the Carolina shore. That is my thought too. The people further inland would probably prefer that the GFS solution plays out.To say the least it's going to be fascinating to watch. I know it is very unlikely but it would be great if Florence spared NC/SC/VA and then meandered OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 4 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: Same here. The GFS solution while interesting looks odd. What are the odds of that looping scenario playing out? I want to see what the FV3 shows. Historically how often do modeled loops actually work out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 Yeah you can toss the gfs . Classic bias of breaking ridge down . Worst natural disaster in NC/ VA in history oncoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 I wanna take a road trip. Disaster tourism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said: Historically how often do modeled loops actually work out? Not very often but sooner or later such a scenario is going to play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Yeah you can toss the gfs . Classic bias of breaking ridge down . Worst natural disaster in NC/ VA in history oncoming I couldn’t agree more. This is going to be a real heartbreaker lost everything kind of storm. Those piedmont Rivers are going to have 1000 year floods. This is going to be allot more then some rich guys second home on the OBX falling into the ocean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 2nd pass on recon, 943mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 13 minutes ago, Whineminster said: I wanna take a road trip. Disaster tourism. There was a big sign blocking the road at the end of my block after sandy that said “you loot or hoot we shoot” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 21 minutes ago, Whineminster said: I wanna take a road trip. Disaster tourism. Take your own supplies with you and don't get in the way, or make rescuers waste their time/resources saving your butt. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 Worst threat to this part of the Carolinas since Hazel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 1 hour ago, sbos_wx said: I just googled a map of North Carolina because I have no knowledge of its' geography (lol) I guess I'd favor it going north of Morehead City, more so Hatteras itself. Ha. Yes, we say south of Morehead even. Bet ya a round of beer at a gtg I may eventually go to within the next 10 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 9 minutes ago, JoMo said: Take your own supplies with you and don't get in the way, or make rescuers waste their time/resources saving your butt. He’s not worth saving. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 20 minutes to the Euro. I didn't see the end of the GFS. Assumed it moved it off the coast and OTS. Brings it right back inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 Looks like Josh Morgerman picked Florence over Mangkhut to chase. Tells you everything you need to know. As an aside, anyone on the coast seeing an increase in surf yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 6 minutes ago, Hoth said: Looks like Josh Morgerman picked Florence over Mangkhut to chase. Tells you everything you need to know. As an aside, anyone on the coast seeing an increase in surf yet? Eh. CONUS threat will take more precedence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 10, 2018 Author Share Posted September 10, 2018 2 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said: OP GFS track has wobbled some but has not deviated far from the same general path it's had over the last 6-8 runs. Culd u plz unpin tis it will not stike new englan who care Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted September 10, 2018 Author Share Posted September 10, 2018 1 hour ago, Whineminster said: I wanna take a road trip. Disaster tourism. This is horrific for the Appalachians. Upslope + Harvey rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adiabatic13 Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 5 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: A blue Rockport, TX shed would suffice though. Yes, that shed was incredibly tough; the manufacturer should market them as storm shelters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 2 hours ago, dendrite said: I’ll go euro. The GFS has actually led the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 That being said, the late GFS loop is a pretty garbage solution. The GFS may have led the way with a steady westward track, but the stall is going to give it problems because it doesn't coupled ocean and air. Stalled TC over unmixed waters = poor forecast intensity, which will lead to poor forecast track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 14 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: This is horrific for the Appalachians. Upslope + Harvey rain. Yeah, heading inland to escape the winds may be a lose/lose scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted September 10, 2018 Share Posted September 10, 2018 Euro doubters aplenty on Twitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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