Hurricane Florence

[HIPPYVALLEY]

23 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

18z GFS is fun

Kevin ran it out of his basement.  Luckily it will probably have a different solution at 0z.

[Hoth]

Just what we need, another foot of rain, give or take.

[TalcottWx]

46 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We aren’t seeing anything. Other than swells. Move on man . It’s a OBX LF .. then hard right OTS. It’s kind of easy now 

Plain ignorant to decide on a solution yet

[Baroclinic Zone]

 The track to just East of the Carolina area seems pretty set as of right now.  Whether or not id moves inland, stalls, loops, gets shot N or back out to see remains to be seen.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

This doesn’t look that anomolous. Cat2/3 LF. 

Regardless of whether it peaks at cat 4 or 5, mark my words...it will landfall in NC as a cat 3 if it does end up that far north.

I hope it goes south of there, personally.

[Seth.P]

6 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

 The track to just East of the Carolina area seems pretty set as of right now.  Whether or not id moves inland, stalls, loops, gets shot N or back out to see remains to be seen.

Going more N seems unlikely due to the ridge, but I agree with everything else.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, Seth.P said:

Going more N seems unlikely due to the ridge, but I agree with everything else.

Not initially, I agree but don't discount any digging trough over the Midwest that could draw this up the coast.  I would not say it's a likely scenario but one that has popped up on modeling.

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

18z GFS is fun

Especially at KHAT - 42" RA and 2 days of sustained Cat 1 (or 2) winds as the storm churns in place just offshore tickling the outer banks with its eyewall. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Regardless of whether it peaks at cat 4 or 5, mark my words...it will landfall in NC as a cat 3 if it does end up that far north.

I hope it goes south of there, personally.

How long it meanders and where is the big problem. If sustained cat2/3 winds are prolonged twice or three times more than your typical eye crashing onshore at 10-12 mph, then it does becomes an anomalous setup. 

[weatherwiz]

Going to be continuing to entraining quite a bit of dry air over the next couple days...at least.

[SlantStickers Anonymous]

3 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

18z GFS is fun

I’m a big fan of an outcome like that. 

[Hoth]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

Going to be continuing to entraining quite a bit of dry air over the next couple days...at least.

Meh, I think it will be able to isolate itself pretty well in the coming days.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

1 hour ago, Hoth said:

Meh, I think it will be able to isolate itself pretty well in the coming days.

It already has insulated itself with tremendous deep convective banding surrounding the core that is developing hot towers now.  A good blog post last night Ray.  Very informative.

[78Blizzard]

The Outer Banks would be completely destroyed if the 0z GFS verified.

[ice1972]

So does trip insurance pay out a year in advance? Cuz that’s what I’m facing with this asshat Flo....Carolla completely wiped from the earth along with my July 2019 rental....Fuk 

[ice1972]

I’m sure somehow the trip insurance I bought won’t pay out

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

And the eps shifted south. DITs favorite met:

 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

 

I realize he's saying "IF  correct"... as some sort of qualifier, but I disagree whether the Euro verifies or not - not that you or anyone asked...

But setting expectations for the GFS to be correct at 120+ hours (or any model for that matter..) for handling particular nuances with track-guidance and/or intensity profiles, re tropical entities, is tantamount to fantasy to begin with and isn't very realistic. It's no "bust" - that's absurd.

The reality is, it's just too far outside the wheel-house/responsibility for the general ambit of modeling technology. 

I will remind folks ... the Euro had Florence up near 55N/55W when it was at D5 ...way back early in Florence's existence (roughly within a day or two of designation)... how well did that work out? 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

36 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I realize he's saying "IF  correct"... as some sort of qualifier, but I disagree whether the Euro verifies or not - not that you or anyone asked...

But setting expectations for the GFS to be correct at 120+ hours (or any model for that matter..) for handling particular nuances with track-guidance and/or intensity profiles, re tropical entities, is tantamount to fantasy to begin with and isn't very realistic. It's no "bust" - that's absurd.

The reality is, it's just too far outside the wheel-house/responsibility for the general ambit of modeling technology. 

I will remind folks ... the Euro had Florence up near 55N/55W when it was at D5 ...way back early in Florence's existence (roughly within a day or two of designation)... how well did that work out? 

Yea. I don’t think the Cap Hatt LF then stall off the coast makes much sense but at this lead time, it doesn’t mean it’s a bust by the gfs. IF we get inside D3 and it still shows something like that when the end result will be, for example, Charleston....then yea, thats a bust. 

We all know DT loves to hammer the gfs anytime he gets the chance but he’s a little hammer happy so far.

[Modfan]

UKie early on Showed a N FL/GA line hit; I think will compromise and see a mid GA coast to SC line landfall.

Do the remains of Gordon and Florence pose any flooding concerns for SNE? I know Hartford west in CT had a very wet August

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea. I don’t think the Cap Hatt LF then stall off the coast makes much sense but at this lead time, it doesn’t mean it’s a bust by the gfs. IF we get inside D3 and it still shows something like that when the end result will be, for example, Charleston....then yea, thats a bust. 

We all know DT loves to hammer the gfs anytime he gets the chance but he’s a little hammer happy so far.

It's an attempt at fairness .... sure. 

I'm not blaming a three-year-old for failing a ten-year-old's I.Q. test, but ...if the former does well, more power to 'em

Seriously, we can compare the relative verification score ...both against one another and individually - but yeah... three days 'seems' a reasonable expectation. I might even go four.  But, the storm gets up to Hatteras (if so... like 132 hours off 00z GFS) and then supposedly the stall gets underway that lasts for a day or two... good luck... That's hoping on a lot of moving parts being accurately conveyed -

Hey, maybe it works out that way.

 

[FlashFreeze]

I came to Murrells Inlet SC 3 years ago and there’s been a tropical system every year, Matthew ended up being a cat 1 when it went south of us instead of hitting Myrtle Beach as a 3, there was more than just a little damage, if this place is hit by a 3 or 4 the devastation will be immense, I am less than half a mile from the ocean, at my lofty elevation of 21’ the storm surge could be an issue assuming there’s anything left to be an issue with after 125 mph+ winds, if it hit Long Island and went up the Ct River valley as a cat 3 like in 1938 the damage would be phenomenal, as the saying goes, watch what you ask for, you might get it, at Home Depot there’s a line of trucks loaded with plywood, generators and gas cans, batteries and bottled water are going fast

[bobbutts]

1 hour ago, FlashFreeze said:

I came to Murrells Inlet SC 3 years ago and there’s been a tropical system every year, Matthew ended up being a cat 1 when it went south of us instead of hitting Myrtle Beach as a 3, there was more than just a little damage, if this place is hit by a 3 or 4 the devastation will be immense, I am less than half a mile from the ocean, at my lofty elevation of 21’ the storm surge could be an issue assuming there’s anything left to be an issue with after 125 mph+ winds, if it hit Long Island and went up the Ct River valley as a cat 3 like in 1938 the damage would be phenomenal, as the saying goes, watch what you ask for, you might get it, at Home Depot there’s a line of trucks loaded with plywood, generators and gas cans, batteries and bottled water are going fast

It's even crazier at the Home Depot after a storm hits.  After Charley I had a contractor/friend do my roof, and he had his life threatened by someone trying to scam our shingles from him while picking them up at the depot.

Good luck with this one down there, hopefully the track stays to your north (unless you want the storm).

 

 

[PowderBeard]

4 hours ago, Modfan said:

 

Do the remains of Gordon and Florence pose any flooding concerns for SNE? I know Hartford west in CT had a very wet August

More of an issue than flooding is how saturated the ground is and how easily trees are uprooting. There have been a couple days that had ~15mph gusts that resulted with trees uprooting and closing roads in Belchertown/Amherst area.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

[Damage In Tolland]

Spread widening instead of closing 

[Hoth]

Is there a reason this thread is pinned? Feels kinda like one of those winter threads where we put up 50 pages of analysis for a storm that whiffs everyone but James. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

8 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Is there a reason this thread is pinned? Feels kinda like one of those winter threads where we put up 50 pages of analysis for a storm that whiffs everyone but James. 

Perhaps it's a storm worth discussing?

[Hoth]

7 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Perhaps it's a storm worth discussing?

It certainly has historic potential and is worthy of discussion, but I thought the centralized tropical forum was created for that, while regional sub forums were more for local impact. Doesn't matter either way I guess.