Hurricane Florence

[40/70 Benchmark]

32 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Wow, do you people know how to read?  Stop it with the attacks like I am someone hyping the situation.  Some of the guidance support a monster of that caliber.  I would say she is near 145mph as she passes Bermuda and intensifies to a 155mph hurricane towards the US coast.  I am not sure if landfall occurs, I am sure we will be better equipped to handle that question later on this weekend.

This sure looks to me like you were implying that a 155mph tempest would be approaching the US coast.

 

[SlantStickers Anonymous]

46 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Wow that does not bode well for the US no matter in which it makes landfall.  Potential intensity is 175mph at day 5, that is as it nears Bermuda.  The headlines by the news will be hype-worthy.

I’ll do the best thing that can be done for this storm and invoke the sacred incantation: 

“not happening, James.” 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Most of us know this....but climo simply alludes to a favored outcome based upon a long term mean.

AKA...climo dictates that we see very little snowfall in April, but sure....April 1, 1997 did happen, but would you favor that outcome any given year?

No.

Some of us aren't clear on what exactly climo refers to.

[CoastalWx]

Climo does argue against landfall given latitude and the H5 setup. 

[CoastalWx]

However, ridging all summer has been highly anomalous and I think should be considered. Given that, a TC in that locale has not made landfall in the US. 

[CT Rain]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

However, ridging all summer has been highly anomalous and I think should be considered. Given that, a TC in that locale has not made landfall in the US. 

Yup. I think the most likely setup is some kind of close shave/graze and then OTS. Or... we jam it west into the Carolinas with a ridge flex.

Never say never though. Near record ridging/blocking downstream can do some funky sh*t.

[Vice-Regent]

3 hours ago, Hoth said:

Florence is exhibiting the same separate blob of convection off its eastern flank that Matthew had in the Caribbean. Is that some artifact of the high shear? I recall Matthew was in a sheared environment as well (and still made cat 5).

It's the hyper trades blowing through that region. It seems more mysterious than it is. Rather hostile environment but Florence is robust.

For reference.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=-48.50,19.21,1231/loc=-45.990,24.647

[40/70 Benchmark]

50 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Yup. I think the most likely setup is some kind of close shave/graze and then OTS. Or... we jam it west into the Carolinas with a ridge flex.

Never say never though. Near record ridging/blocking downstream can do some funky sh*t.

Agree.

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You’re the best. Keep fighting the good fight and never give up. 

 

[Ginx snewx]

GFS 0 Z is basically Jose 2017

[CoastalWx]

Euro crushes MYR and ILM.

[MJO812]

Euro and cmc landfall well south

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

6z gfs finally starting to uderstand physics.....and then it still wants to run into the big ridge, fail.

[Hoth]

33 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

6z gfs finally starting to uderstand physics.....and then it still wants to run into the big ridge, fail.

That run verbatim would be a disaster for the Chesapeake. Good thing it's the GFS and we get a few of those runs each summer.

[Bostonseminole]

9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This makes absolutely, positively zero sense.

Major hurricane landfalls in New England are so exceptionally rare that climo absolutely favors benign outcomes.

Additionally, not one hurricane....ever, that crossed the position that Florence in right now has EVER struck the US mainland.....0.000000000.

As for intensity, you are just regurgitating what I have already said...sure, it may peak at 155mph, but it will not hit the mid atlantic coast that that intensity. 

 

always a first..:)

[40/70 Benchmark]

41 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

always a first..:)

Yes. My only point is that climo is against it. 

I think its Carolinas or fish.

[Bostonseminole]

26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes. My only point is that climo is against it. 

I think its Carolinas or fish.

fish seems unlikely, carolina seems reasonable still ~ 7 days out

[Bostonseminole]

the UKMET seems to be hinting at even further south, GA coast, N. Florida..

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'm not ready to declare a fish as "unlikely" yet, but the LF idea is gaining steam. I mentioned yesterday that this scenario had an Andrew vibe to me in the sense that it nearly got sheered apart and veered to the north, and now looks poised to bend back to the west and go to town under a building ridge.

This could be bad. I think the James 155mph coast approach scenario has a better shot of unfolding into SC/GA, rather than NC, but we'll see.

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

the UKMET seems to be hinting at even further south, GA coast, N. Florida..

Worst case.

[Great Snow 1717]

The WC is already in overdrive in covering the potential impact from Florence.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

Meant to say it last night but great posts. I agree with you. Right now, I think this is either a Carolinas system or OTS and I still lean OTS despite what the guidance says. This looks live a very sensitive setup to me, and a trend toward a US impact could just as easily trend the opposite direction in a few days if ridging doesn't turn out to be as strong. It's a little interesting to me right now, but I'll prefer to wait until early next week before jumping on the bandwagon. 

I'm not sure how you can declare a fish as unlikely when we are nearly a week out and a subsequent US LF is unprecedented from a system in its present location.

That said, real shot of high impact, especially from Carolina points southward.

[weatherwiz]

Is there any way to view depth of SST's off the east coast? I'm also wondering that if the high allows Florence to slow down so much that it eventually rapidly weakens...perhaps before a landfall...if one were to happen. That brings me to the depth of the SST's b/c even though they support strengthening if the depth of the sufficiently warm waters is rather shallow upwelling would quickly erode the SST's. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Is there any way to view depth of SST's off the east coast? I'm also wondering that if the high allows Florence to slow down so much that it eventually rapidly weakens...perhaps before a landfall...if one were to happen. That brings me to the depth of the SST's b/c even though they support strengthening if the depth of the sufficiently warm waters is rather shallow upwelling would quickly erode the SST's. 

I don't think that is a big issue because if this stalls before it makes LF, its probably isn't going to make LF.

[weatherwiz]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think that is a big issue because if this stalls before it makes LF, its probably isn't going to make LF.

Good point. Getting a landfall after a stall is even more anomalous then getting a landfall in the projected synoptic pattern. Plus there certainly would be some front moving towards the coast which would maybe steer it a bit farther away from the coast...or maybe it ingests moisture and we get a soaker down the road

[weatherwiz]

6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah. I don't hold it against them, but I think often times wx folks see potential and then contort themselves to prove how that potential can be realized, mitigating factors be damned. I think it's better to do the inverse, especially with tropical. Recognize the potential but look at the factors that would keep a system from realizing that potential.

Can there be a high impact event somewhere along the EC next week? Absolutely. But we're so far out and the setup looks complicated enough that I think smart money is still on a less impactful outcome, particularly up here were we generally need a lot to align for a landfall, let along a sig tropical event. 

I think looking at the 26c depth is your best bet but if someone knows of another source that'd be awesome. 

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/at.html

(note the website is giving me some trouble today but is usually reliable)

This is great...thank you. Yeah took a bit to load lol

[Bostonseminole]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah. I don't hold it against them, but I think often times wx folks see potential and then contort themselves to prove how that potential can be realized, mitigating factors be damned. I think it's better to do the inverse, especially with tropical. Recognize the potential but look at the factors that would keep a system from realizing that potential.

Can there be a high impact event somewhere along the EC next week? Absolutely. But we're so far out and the setup looks complicated enough that I think smart money is still on a less impactful outcome, particularly up here were we generally need a lot to align for a landfall, let along a sig tropical event. 

I think looking at the 26c depth is your best bet but if someone knows of another source that'd be awesome. 

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/at.html

(note the website is giving me some trouble today but is usually reliable)

it's really not that far out, that high will need to start influencing florence around 4 days from now, I know thing can change in 4 days, but IMO it's seems unlikely the models are so far off on it's strength.

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Bostonseminole said:

it's really not that far out, that high will need to start influencing florence around 4 days from now, I know thing can change in 4 days, but IMO it's seems unlikely the models are so far off on it's strength.

 

 

Good point. 

We'll see.

[40/70 Benchmark]

You would like to think that the EURO would have a good handle on that high at day 4.

I'll try to blog tonight...wife works, so I have a window.

[bobbutts]

1 hour ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

The WC is already in overdrive in covering the potential impact from Florence.