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Brian5671

Hurricane Florence Catch all Thread

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As I hamVe said many times I am still pretty new to this and I am a novice but one thing I do know is that with 6 days to go the probabilities have increased but NOTHING is written in stone yet. I think everyone should take notice regardless of where you live on the coast but to  hug each model run is foolish with the storm still pretty far away. If I was a betting man I would say the models will look different by Monday Tuesday , Im not by any means saying its a miss but at this point no one , not even a computer model has the certainty down. Keep up the posts and pics guys this is all very informative 

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3 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

flo will probably pass well to our south while we get a heat wave

Quite possible with the big ridge

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4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

JB says into the Carolina's with a curve Northward after landfall...lots of rain central PA/MD/VA

That's how it looks right now

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4 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said:

So basically we either get a lot of rain, a lot of wind, or another stretch of 90+/75+.

Yay.

Pretty boring

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From the NHC's 11:00 AST discussion:

The risk of other direct impacts associated with Florence along
the U.S. East Coast next week has increased.  However, there is
still very large uncertainty in model forecasts of Florence's track
beyond day 5, making it too soon to determine the exact location,
magnitude, and timing of these impacts.  Interests near and along
the U.S. East Coast should monitor the progress of Florence through
the weekend and ensure they have their hurricane plans in place.
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Ukie might have won this. It always has been south the whole time.

Alot of people thouht this was going to hit the area.

I lost alot of sleep tracking this lol

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5 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Ukie might have won this. It always has been south the whole time.

Alot of people thouht this was going to hit the area.

I lost alot of sleep tracking this lol

Ant you do realize its still 6-7 days away..... hurricanes have greater than a 300 miles error at that point in time.  Definitely wouldn't let guard down.  However, at this time a NC landfall is looking more and more likely. 

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10 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Ukie might have won this. It always has been south the whole time.

Alot of people thouht this was going to hit the area.

I lost alot of sleep tracking this lol

silly for fantasy range...day 5 or less is worth losing sleep over not day 8

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24 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

Definitely starting to feel better about my flight out of LGA Friday morning. UKIE and GGEM have it going into Savannah now LOL.

AT this rate it might steam roll across FL and head into GOM.... unlikely but possible.

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12z had this up the coast yesterday. I was really looking forward to TS conditions next week.

 

Sad times but thank god it's not a winter storm.

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3 hours ago, Gravity Wave said:

Yeah this threat is all but dead for our area unless the WAR suddenly gets weaker for next week, which seems unlikely.

Plenty of time left

18z gfs has the war slightly weaker. Alot of rain for our area.

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4 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Plenty of time left

18z gfs has the war slightly weaker. Alot of rain for our area.

Yes plenty of time but it’s unlikely at this point. I wouldn’t mind a nice rainstorm or a tropical storm. Still plenty of time for this to head north though Anthony

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If the Euro and DT's thoughts are correct we would probably see minimal remnant impacts from Florence, maybe an inch or two of rain at best. Obviously still a bit of a ways out yet and alot can change over the next couple of days so we will have to see how things play out. But if we experience the heavy rain expected Sunday/Monday even and 1-2" that the remnants of Florence could produce for our area could cause some issues. He also noted in his video that with the strong WAR in place if anyone thinks Florence is coming to New England, NJ, NYC its not happening.

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13 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

If the Euro and DT's thoughts are correct we would probably see minimal remnant impacts from Florence, maybe an inch or two of rain at best. Obviously still a bit of a ways out yet and alot can change over the next couple of days so we will have to see how things play out. But if we experience the heavy rain expected Sunday/Monday even and 1-2" that the remnants of Florence could produce for our area could cause some issues. He also noted in his video that with the strong WAR in place if anyone thinks Florence is coming to New England, NJ, NYC its not happening.

Well if his verification record is anything like his winter forecast I am going to start preparing now......

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Someone may have to write an encomium for the entire EC.   Cat3 menaces coastline for a week w/o coming on shore!!!???

Hours 120 to 300.

THERE WAS A BEACH NAMED CONEY....          WHERE THE PEOPLE AND BARKERS WERE CALLED PHONEY....... 

T'WAS THERE A GIRL NAMED FLORENCE WAS JILTED .....                                                   SO THE ENTIRE EAST COAST SHE TILTED.

Lol.

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The 06z GFS is clueless on what to do with Florence IMO. Stick with the Euro as I think it has a much better handle on things and even then there will probably be further adjustments.

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