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Hurricane Florence Catch all Thread


Brian5671
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1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

The “new info” was probably the GFS. No other model was running at that time. It’s too soon to reach firm conclusions, but Florence should be watched. A threat still exists. The EPS shows it.

Thanks Don, Dr Knabb was showing the spaghetti plot of the EPS and it does show a bigger threat today than there was yesterday.

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49 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Annoyed that Lee Goldberg just said that "based on new info" he feels the storm will recurve, he did say it was very early though to be predicting anything.

That was Jose right!  Another one was (I think) Matthew in 2016, remember early runs had it doing a Sandy-esque turn into the coast and it ended up going into SC with record rains and I think that was another one that stalled just offshore of us- both that and Jose brought welcome relief from hot humid weather with cool 30 mph gusts but no rain up here.

 

 

4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The “new info” was probably the GFS. No other model was running at that time. It’s too soon to reach firm conclusions, but Florence should be watched. A threat still exists. The EPS shows it.

The Op GFS should not even be used at this point, as stated above the Euro and its ensembles are the way to go right now. Also noted in the New England thread the 18z GEFS had some big hits per one poster just not sure exactly where since I haven't seen it for myself.

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57 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

 

The Op GFS should not even be used at this point, as stated above the Euro and its ensembles are the way to go right now. Also noted in the New England thread the 18z GEFS had some big hits per one poster just not sure exactly where since I haven't seen it for myself.

Some of the hits on the 18z GEFS included: NC, the NC-VA border, central-southern NJ, and eastern Long Island.

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14 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I'd love for this thing to get really close but only enough to generate huge swells because I'm not crazy enough to want another hurricane landfall. 

I'm an extreme weather fan so I'm not going to apologize for wanting to see hurricane conditions again.  I can't control the weather so dont hate on me. 

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1 minute ago, Rjay said:

I'm an extreme weather fan and I'm not going to apologize for wanting to see hurricane conditions again.  I can't control the weather so dont hate on me. 

My mentality has always been never to blame for those who love extreme weather, but just as equally don't get upset at those who root for a non-extreme outcome. As long as we remain civil and actually make sense with our posts, there is no reason both sides can't co-exist.

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1 minute ago, Seth.P said:

My mentality has always been never to blame for those who love extreme weather, but just as equally don't get upset at those who root for a non-extreme outcome. As long as we remain civil and actually make sense with our posts, there is no reason both sides can't co-exist.

See.  Not so hard to be reasonable.

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I would be inclined to go with a landfall in either SC/NC/VA since it seems like the Euro has been honing in on that area for a while now. We would probably still see some kind of impacts here mostly from remnants but that would obviously depend on track and strength after Florence makes landfall. Obviously there would also be marine impacts as Florence approaches the US East Coast.

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1 hour ago, Rtd208 said:

I would be inclined to go with a landfall in either SC/NC/VA since it seems like the Euro has been honing in on that area for a while now. We would probably still see some kind of impacts here mostly from remnants but that would obviously depend on track and strength after Florence makes landfall. Obviously there would also be marine impacts as Florence approaches the US East Coast.

What about a split the difference kind of scenario where it skirts the outer banks and then heads north or NNE

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3 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

My comments were based off the 00z Op Euro which showed no such scenario.

Yeah, I was talking about a split the difference scenario which would split the difference between the Euro and the GFS.  

 

I just saw the new cone and it takes Bermuda out of the cone and takes the storm south, so they are going with the southern track.  These storms recurve eventually it's just a matter of how far west it gets before it does that.

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1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

Yeah, I was talking about a split the difference scenario which would split the difference between the Euro and the GFS.  

 

I just saw the new cone and it takes Bermuda out of the cone and takes the storm south, so they are going for the southern track.  These storms recurve eventually its just a matter of how far west it gets before it does that.

The GFS is just plain wrong and not all hurricanes recurve after landfall.

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3 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

The GFS is just plain wrong and not all hurricanes recurve after landfall.

They do when they get caught up in the westerlies, but if they get too far inland before they do, all you get is a remnant or extratropical low.  Even Gordon is going to recurve, it'll just do so after it reaches the midwest and gets absorbed into a front.  Eventually everything goes west to east or southwest to northeast.

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19 minutes ago, Neblizzard said:

GFS is a nightmare scenario for the mid Atlantic up thru our area.  It’s trended more towards EURO. 

Looks similar to the 1933 hurricane track that was mentioned "the Chesapeake Bay" hurricane that killed 47 people, hit DC and went through interior PA.  FYI this is similar to the EPS, which are more accurate than the OP Euro at this time range (Euro OP was going too far to the south over Myrtle Beach.)  So the two models are sort of meeting in the middle as they usually do, but closer to the EPS than anything else.

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5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Looks similar to the 1933 hurricane track that was mentioned "the Chesapeake Bay" hurricane that killed 47 people, hit DC and went through interior PA.  FYI this is similar to the EPS, which are more accurate than the OP Euro at this time range (Euro OP was going too far to the south over Myrtle Beach.)  So the two models are sort of meeting in the middle as they usually do, but closer to the EPS than anything else.

It’s still too early to know where   Florence will track , but the odds are increasing for an east coast hit.  The massive WAR will give her plenty of fuel and runway.  06z GFS verbatim shows 10-12 inches of rain for the area.  The next few days will be telling on the models 

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1 minute ago, Neblizzard said:

It’s still too early where Florence will track , but the odds are increasing for an east coast hit.  The massive WAR will give her plenty of fuel and runway.  06z GFS verbatim shows 10-12 inches of rain for the area.  The next few days will be telling on the models 

Yeah I think we'll know a lot better after that front passes by Monday-Tuesday.

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Models continuing the 2018 stronger WAR the closer in we get pattern. Notice how the 0z Euro and EPS track this into the Carolinas and really slow it down as it heads north. The 2018 record breaking WAR will be one of the most significant features of the 2010's. This looks like the first storm to pass above 20N and 45W that will make it to the US without safely recurving OTS. Just goes to show what an extreme WAR pattern this is.

Since 1950, 8 #hurricanes have been within 100 miles of #Florence's current location. None of these have made US landfall. Unfortunately, Florence is not forecast to take a climatological track. pic.twitter.com/tMVu76dB6P

New run stronger WAR

ecmwf_z500a_us_8.thumb.png.a325504d4fe95c170e13bcc1f9220b90.png

 

Old run weaker WAR

ecmwf_z500a_us_9.thumb.png.a7a992eba9da550fe6684efd151e6b34.png

 

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13 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

This is still not a done deal in regards to the track. I remember last year when the models had a few storms modeled up here and then changed at the last minute.

This isn’t over by a long stretch . These models flipped 4 times already . By Monday night we will prob have more of a answer but the fun of tracking is the best part 

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