snow1 Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Uh? Have you seen the latest models? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 7 minutes ago, snow1 said: Have you seen the latest models? Um yes They aren't good for our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 Hurricane models shifted west again at 18z Majority hit the Mid Atlantic coast up to our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 Latest conehttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT06/refresh/AL062018_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/204622_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 3 hours ago, Will - Rutgers said: It'll depend on the strength of the ridge and any kickers that might come along but all else being equal I think there's a fairly significant model bias to slowing storms down too much as they get caught in the westerlies. Seems like extratropical and tropical systems tend to clear a good deal faster than they get modelled. How many times on this board do you hear that such-and-such model shows snow starting on Friday night and it's still snowing at hour 72, and then that doesn't happen, lol. Some do slow down though like Eduouard in 1996, the slowing down of the forward speed caused it to weaken though and not even E NE saw much outside of some tropical storm winds. We had a couple of storms slow down just offshore in the last couple of years also with similar results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 The media is starting to warn the public about this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 Ukie remains south and we all know it was correct last year as well. Can’t ignore the consistency. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 12 minutes ago, snow1 said: Ukie remains south and we all know it was correct last year as well. Can’t ignore the consistency. It could be consistently wrong too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewYorkweatherfan Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 I don’t understand why some people want a category 5 to hit the city! That would be catastrophic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 39 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Some do slow down though like Eduouard in 1996, the slowing down of the forward speed caused it to weaken though and not even E NE saw much outside of some tropical storm winds. We had a couple of storms slow down just offshore in the last couple of years also with similar results. Oh absolutely, and you might be thinking of Jose last year, which was around the benchmark's latitude and then just went nowhere. It'll always depend on the setup. And some of the modelling indicates scenarios where high pressure really traps this thing. I'm just a hard sell on it until we get much closer. The storm is going to change in size and intensity, probably very significantly, in a way that will change how it interacts with any ridging. The strength and positioning of said ridging isn't set in stone, and then you'll have more discrete low pressure features that could give this a lane to escape, which are even harder to model. Just way too early. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sportybx Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 gFS coming in more east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 Models will get better now. Storm is weakening it seems. Let’s hope this stays south. We don’t need it here 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 6 minutes ago, Sportybx said: gFS coming in more east This should have been more west than what it showed due to a stronger ridge in the Atlantic than the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 11 minutes ago, NewYorkweatherfan said: I don’t understand why some people want a category 5 to hit the city! That would be catastrophic. It's not going to be a cat 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: This should have been more west than what it showed due to a stronger ridge in the Atlantic than the 12z run. Stop the wishcasting please. This will trend more east like all Mets are saying. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 1 minute ago, snow1 said: Stop the wishcasting please. This will trend more east like all Mets are saying. Stop being an annoying weenie. Who is saying east ? No one is wishcasting 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewYorkweatherfan Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 25 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Stop being an annoying weenie. Who is saying east ? No one is wishcasting You’re right let this play out. There is definitely a chance of a hurricane bigger than sandy to hit our area next week. Still too far out to know. If it trends north this will end up Irene track like. That would most likely be a cat 3 hitting New York Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 46 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said: Oh absolutely, and you might be thinking of Jose last year, which was around the benchmark's latitude and then just went nowhere. It'll always depend on the setup. And some of the modelling indicates scenarios where high pressure really traps this thing. I'm just a hard sell on it until we get much closer. The storm is going to change in size and intensity, probably very significantly, in a way that will change how it interacts with any ridging. The strength and positioning of said ridging isn't set in stone, and then you'll have more discrete low pressure features that could give this a lane to escape, which are even harder to model. Just way too early. Annoyed that Lee Goldberg just said that "based on new info" he feels the storm will recurve, he did say it was very early though to be predicting anything. That was Jose right! Another one was (I think) Matthew in 2016, remember early runs had it doing a Sandy-esque turn into the coast and it ended up going into SC with record rains and I think that was another one that stalled just offshore of us- both that and Jose brought welcome relief from hot humid weather with cool 30 mph gusts but no rain up here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 Lol I missed all this fun bickering. Now memories of last winter and spring are all coming back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 The Op Euro and its ensembles should currently be the model of choice until we start getting a bit closer IMO. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 Right now if Florence does impact the east coast I would favor NC/VA for landfall with secondary/remnant impacts the most likely outcome here which could still pose plenty of problems for our area depending on track and strength at that point. Obviously the verdict is still out on any details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 8 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Right now if Florence does impact the east coast I would favor NC/VA for landfall with secondary/remnant impacts the most likely outcome here which could still pose plenty of problems for our area depending on track and strength at that point. Obviously the verdict is still out on any details. I’m most worried about rainfall, whether or not the metro takes direct landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 Banned 2 people in this thread already. Can we make it 3? 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 1 minute ago, Nibor said: I’m most worried about rainfall, whether or not the metro takes direct landfall. I wouldn't be worried about any specific detail yet. Lots of options on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, Rjay said: I wouldn't be worried about any specific detail yet. Lots of options on the table. Absolutely, I’m just thinking hypothetically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 Just now, Nibor said: Absolutely, I’m thinking hypothetically. Fair enough. Nothing wrong with discussing the weather on a weather forum. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 6 minutes ago, Rjay said: I wouldn't be worried about any specific detail yet. Lots of options on the table. Your work is truly never done lol, good practice for winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: Fair enough. Nothing wrong with discussing the weather on a weather forum. Yeah that's why I bring up prior history with storms, it's interesting to try and match things up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 6, 2018 Share Posted September 6, 2018 42 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Annoyed that Lee Goldberg just said that "based on new info" he feels the storm will recurve, he did say it was very early though to be predicting anything. That was Jose right! Another one was (I think) Matthew in 2016, remember early runs had it doing a Sandy-esque turn into the coast and it ended up going into SC with record rains and I think that was another one that stalled just offshore of us- both that and Jose brought welcome relief from hot humid weather with cool 30 mph gusts but no rain up here. The “new info” was probably the GFS. No other model was running at that time. It’s too soon to reach firm conclusions, but Florence should be watched. A threat still exists. The EPS shows it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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