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Central PA Fall 2018


pasnownut
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1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

lol.  I may have made progress on the belly and the grey a bit, but I've got a lot of work to do. 

Mind you this was merely for fun, and to just cast a bit of "its gonna be ok" into the warmish period coming up, as it looks to be transient and a "no need for toasters" kinda warmup. 

You guys talking about 2015 made me start to twitch/tick all over again.  Hope i never relive a Christmas like that in PA.  It's just not right.

 

I agree. 

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4 hours ago, pasnownut said:

lol.  I may have made progress on the belly and the grey a bit, but I've got a lot of work to do. 

Mind you this was merely for fun, and to just cast a bit of "its gonna be ok" into the warmish period coming up, as it looks to be transient and a "no need for toasters" kinda warmup. 

You guys talking about 2015 made me start to twitch/tick all over again.  Hope i never relive a Christmas like that in PA.  It's just not right.

 

Not only isn't it right, it's just not fair. I mean...we don't get 40 degree days in July. 

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Since there's not much to talk about, I'll just throw this out there to give the Christmas miracle a little hope....:whistle:

Just use your imagination....and a little meteo madness that most of us supposedly come here for....and draw your own conclusions.

Purely for fun

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_43.png

 

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50 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Since there's not much to talk about, I'll just throw this out there to give the Christmas miracle a little hope....:whistle:

Just use your imagination....and a little meteo madness that most of us supposedly come here for....and draw your own conclusions.

Purely for fun

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_43.png

 

so, nut says its gonna snow for Christmas..................At least thats how i read it :thumbsup:

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24 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

Well the Accuweather long range forecast, from 3 weeks ago, calling for winter to hold off until Late January is looking better and better by the day.  

I'll say that is for sure. I hope the November snow was not a tease for us right now. Boring and nothing looks good at this point with where things are headed. 

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4 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

It actually looks like a little something on the 23rd sneaking in

the way i look at it, when things "looked" great.....we got jack.

So now that things look boring/mundane, lets look for something and see where we go.

Pattern isn't ripe for snow, but its not a shut the shades deal either.  More of a see/saw.....yee/haw kinda deal till we near Christmas.  

Gut says that a week from now, we may be sending the dogs out to track.  Sure hope so.  IF...big if....we can get a zonal/split flow kinda deal like some OP/Ens guidance has hinted at, it could be fun as we are approaching peak snow climo, so its "easier" for it to snow round these here parts. 

Headed on the road to play santa to clients, so someone find something for us to gaze at today.  

Nut

 

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23 hours ago, pasnownut said:

the way i look at it, when things "looked" great.....we got jack.

So now that things look boring/mundane, lets look for something and see where we go.

Pattern isn't ripe for snow, but its not a shut the shades deal either.  More of a see/saw.....yee/haw kinda deal till we near Christmas.  

Gut says that a week from now, we may be sending the dogs out to track.  Sure hope so.  IF...big if....we can get a zonal/split flow kinda deal like some OP/Ens guidance has hinted at, it could be fun as we are approaching peak snow climo, so its "easier" for it to snow round these here parts. 

Headed on the road to play santa to clients, so someone find something for us to gaze at today.  

Nut

 

Hey Santa, 23rd-24th 

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2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Do you think most of CTP has the chance to change over to snow or just a portion of the area ?

looks to me like NE/poconos is best spots to see the snow from tomorrows event. Meso's like that region most, but some upslope will also be seen back in the laurels/cent mountains at elevation.

I hope it happens for those that can get it, because things have turned rather scroogish beyond next week. Lets just say that 500MB maps have colors in all the wrong places.  Too far out to get worried, but I'm starting to worry.

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Here is my two cents so far on this Winter.  November this year acted like a Winter month we had a great storm and lots of below normal temps.  December so far not so great. It hasn't been a furnace, but snowfall wise blah.  We just missed a big ticket storm last week which would have made a big difference around here. It is mid December and we are looking at a possible two to three week crap pattern. In a crap pattern we may luck out and score, but I would not count on it. If January, February, and March produce which I think they will, December will be a distant memory.   Snow around the holidays is great, but not common.  Anyway too much talking from me.  Lots of Winter to go!  I think we will all be happy when this Winter ends.

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7 minutes ago, daxx said:

Here is my two cents so far on this Winter.  November this year acted like a Winter month we had a great storm and lots of below normal temps.  December so far not so great. It hasn't been a furnace, but snowfall wise blah.  We just missed a big ticket storm last week which would have made a big difference around here. It is mid December and we are looking at a possible two to three week crap pattern. In a crap pattern we may luck out and score, but I would not count on it. If January, February, and March produce which I think they will, December will be a distant memory.   Snow around the holidays is great, but not common.  Anyway too much talking from me.  Lots of Winter to go!  I think we will all be happy when this Winter ends.

Yes, it hurt that the storm last week missed by about 200 miles to our south. If we even got 3-6 inches from that, we would be on a top 10 snow year pace. As it is, we are in a good pace now, even if we get shut out in December.

Most of our great years, the snow comes in a 6-8 week period. Heck, 2010 around here was basically 1 great week in February !

The last run of the Euro weeklies set up a great looking pattern by mid January. If that is the case, we would have 2 solid months to score more snow through the middle of March.

The next couple of weeks do not look great, but also they do not look like a shut out pattern. We may just need to time something just right.

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Here is the 12z GEFS our through 384 hours, which takes us to New Year’s Eve. There are a few ensemble members that would make us happy! 

We have had many “great” patterns in the past that haven’t brought much snow. We have also had luck in patterns that have not looked great from a couple of weeks out. It doesn’t have to be cold, but just “cold enough” to get snow in December.

2958F765-2E16-4706-A4BC-6640C6146159.png

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We need to keep our eye on a possible snow event for Christmas Eve & Christmas morning.

The models have been recently showing a weak over running type of storm that could produce an advisory level event. If the High pressure area to the north can strengthen slightly to lock in just a little more cold air, without suppressing the storm, we could be in a good spot for a chance at some Christmas snow ! 

D78FA41F-38A2-4C7A-9567-9F68A6D9524B.png

D459EAA7-A54C-41ED-9B53-4B7AD5BEBD37.png

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