Central PA Fall 2018

[Blizzard of 93]

7 hours ago, sauss06 said:

we've all seen this dog and pony show before! 

Yes, we see this roller coaster with most east coast storms. Many of our better storms over the years have gone through these weather model ups & downs, before ending up delivering the snow.

I think this is far from over, especially for those of us south of I -80.

The 18z GFS & GEFS were a step in the right direction.

[Itstrainingtime]

2 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Yes, we see this roller coaster with most east coast storms. Many of our better storms over the years have gone through these weather model ups & downs, before ending up delivering the snow.

I think this is far from over, especially for those of us south of I -80.

The 18z GFS & GEFS were a step in the right direction.

I agree with you...I'd be somewhat surprised if at least some snow doesn't sneak into southern PA.

[pasnownut]

2 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Yes, we see this roller coaster with most east coast storms. Many of our better storms over the years have gone through these weather model ups & downs, before ending up delivering the snow.

I think this is far from over, especially for those of us south of I -80.

The 18z GFS & GEFS were a step in the right direction.

If we can see a continuation with overnights it will be a big confidence boost as right now it’s just 1 run and not a trend.  That said I agree and feel that the NS energy will not be as strong as modeled and will correct to a solution that is better for us. 

[Blizzard of 93]

As CTP mentioned in their discussion this morning, the Canadian 0z run last night was ideal for CTP snow.

The New GFS upgrade at 6z brought the storm further north & put the LSV back in the game with 3-6 inches of snow. The run crushed MD & VA. We only would need a 50-100 mile shift north on this run to get into the heavy snow.

Hopefully 12z treats us well !

[sauss06]

45 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

As CTP mentioned in their discussion this morning, the Canadian 0z run last night was ideal for CTP snow.

The New GFS upgrade at 6z brought the storm further north & put the LSV back in the game with 3-6 inches of snow. The run crushed MD & VA. We only would need a 50-100 mile shift north on this run to get into the heavy snow.

Hopefully 12z treats us well !

One thing for certain, your enthusiasm always keeps me hopeful.

With setups like this, i always think we have a chance. Didn't someone once say, systems like this always move north? whats 50-100 miles among friends right?   

[Itstrainingtime]

25 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

One thing for certain, your enthusiasm always keeps me hopeful.

With setups like this, i always think we have a chance. Didn't someone once say, systems like this always move north? whats 50-100 miles among friends right?   

He's a great asset to our forum. His enthusiasm is genuine and i for one appreciate how many times he's lifted my spirits. 

As I said last night I'd be surprised if we don't get something out of this. My wife's trip to NC is likely going to get cancelled because regardless of what happens here the high country of NC is looking primed for a pummeling. So with that, we might as well join in on the fun as well. 

It seems like the cold is taking it's time moving in. Still didn't make it below freezing last night. 

[pasnownut]

56 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

One thing for certain, your enthusiasm always keeps me hopeful.

With setups like this, i always think we have a chance. Didn't someone once say, systems like this always move north? whats 50-100 miles among friends right?   

Yeah, blizz is the shizz.  Being the other resident snow whacko, its good to be along side him.

Yes, storms like this will often do the north jog Ao@ 2-3 day leads, so we have time with this.  I am not YET rooting it north, as if it starts now, you'll see too far W solutions start showing up and tainting our precious white gold potential.  Just look for subtle changes in confluence, 500 flow pattern, tilt axis, ridging etc. 

Thats the way we can baby step our way into a doozy.

[Superstorm]

Yeah, blizz is the shizz.  Being the other resident snow whacko, its good to be along side him.
Yes, storms like this will often do the north jog Ao@ 2-3 day leads, so we have time with this.  I am not YET rooting it north, as if it starts now, you'll see too far W solutions start showing up and tainting our precious white gold potential.  Just look for subtle changes in confluence, 500 flow pattern, tilt axis, ridging etc. 
Thats the way we can baby step our way into a doozy.

Agreed. Too north too soon then we will be fighting taint or a snow to rain situation.


.

[canderson]

If we do end up getting decent snow Sunday-Monday the MA forum will need serious triage, especially those south of Maryland. 

[paweather]

The OP GFS was still pretty darn suppressed. DT is going nuts out on FB My goodness still so much time.

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, paweather said:

The OP GFS was still pretty darn suppressed. DT is going nuts out on FB My goodness still so much time.

And its replacement still gives alot of hope.  That is right where we want it, if past tendencies show up with this model.

[CarlislePaWx]

7 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

And its replacement still gives alot of hope.  That is right where we want it, if past tendencies show up with this model.

Wow...Nice!

[paweather]

25 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

And its replacement still gives alot of hope.  That is right where we want it, if past tendencies show up with this model.

agreed. 

[Itstrainingtime]

A whole lot of variability and moving parts. Could be a mostly clear Sunday/Monday, a major snowstorm, or anything in between. I'm liking some of the big daddy solutions starting to surface on the ensembles...

[pasnownut]

Fv3 has been rather unwaivering in its presentation, so it should gain alot of traction.....or go down w/ the ship.  Grades out in next 96-144 hours.  

 

[canderson]

Fv3 is the updated GFS correct, and they'll retire the "old" GFS after a few months? Or am I incorrect? 

[pasnownut]

7 minutes ago, canderson said:

Fv3 is the updated GFS correct, and they'll retire the "old" GFS after a few months? Or am I incorrect? 

correct.  Just had this discussion over in the MA forum.

 

Op run goes operational in 2019, but the Ens will be in Q2 of 2020.  

[pawatch]

Looks like it is going to be a long week. Models figuring out the southern soulution but still not figuring out the suppression to the north.

Some of the models showing OTS and others North & South. Curious to see how the Fv3 performs 

[CarlislePaWx]

18Z FV3 is SOUTH again with 3" line in DC vs MDT at 12Z.  Still lots of time to shift back north I'd say.

[canderson]

0z GFS gets 1” to the PAborder but it’s still well south. Not sure we’ll get this storm, seems like suppression wants to suddenly reign  

 

 

. 

[CarlislePaWx]

45 minutes ago, canderson said:

0z GFS gets 1” to the PAborder but it’s still well south. Not sure we’ll get this storm, seems like suppression wants to suddenly reign  . 

Actually, this run compared to previous runs are significantly further north.  As you said, measurable precip now reaches the M/D line.  That's improvement.  Way too early to give up on this one.

[pasnownut]

2 hours ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Actually, this run compared to previous runs are significantly further north.  As you said, measurable precip now reaches the M/D line.  That's improvement.  Way too early to give up on this one.

looking over 0Z's, I'm liking where we sit right now.  Nice trend N on precip maps on old GFS, Fv3 was about the same and CMC ticked S.  Euro came north as well.  You can also see the confluence looking better in the NE, and should lead to less suppressed solutions if that continues.  L structure is rather unique as it leaves behind a piece and the ULL closes off briefly.  I have a feeling this may turn into something as Showme suggested the other day.  Not sure it does anything for us, but its not something I've seen very often, so fun to watch.  

 

[Blizzard of 93]

16 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

looking over 0Z's, I'm liking where we sit right now.  Nice trend N on precip maps on old GFS, Fv3 was about the same and CMC ticked S.  Euro came north as well.  You can also see the confluence looking better in the NE, and should lead to less suppressed solutions if that continues.  L structure is rather unique as it leaves behind a piece and the ULL closes off briefly.  I have a feeling this may turn into something as Showme suggested the other day.  Not sure it does anything for us, but its not something I've seen very often, so fun to watch.  

 

Yes, I like where we sit now as well.

The 0z Euro & the old GFS shifted north. Good snow on both models gets to just south of DC. 

Overall with this general set up, I like where we sit with about 5 days to go. The precip shields on the northwest side of the storm looks way underdone on the Euro & GFS. When considering the origin of the storm, the low position off of the NC/VA coast & the track from the south, there should be a much more pronounced area of precip further north than currently shown.

This storm & it’s associated precip look to be well established starting in the south central states. I like especially how the Euro tonight has significant snow into the southern parts of IL, IN, & OH, as well as a good portion of WV. Typically, when we see precip into those areas, it doesn’t take much to get precip into southern PA.

I would be more concerned if we were seeing snow only along the coast back to I-95 & hoping that it backed enough north & west to get us in the game. We usually fall short in those situations. This time I am more optimistic with seeing that good precip in the Midwest, heading into Kentucky & WV, & western VA. This should not miss us if the storm moves just a little bit more to the north.

In general, I think this set up will not take too much to get at least the LSV into the game. We probably won’t ever get into the bullseye, but I think we could still get a decent event here.

 

[Blizzard of 93]

The 0z EPS last night looked great!

There are about 20 of the 51 members that bring at least a few inches of snow to the LSV. A few members delivered great hits.

The overall mean low position & clusters of low locations off the coast improved also.

The mean snow amount also jumped up to 3-4 inches for the LSV.

Hopefully 12z keeps things going!

[Atomixwx]

You'll have to forgive me if I'm having a hard time buying a storm missing us low and inside in early December. That just seems opposite of anything that has ever happened here. 

I feel like when we get weekend storms, the model tide turns on Wednesday. Let's see what happens.

[Itstrainingtime]

Visiting Cape May today for Christmas. Hit snow as soon as we hit Jersey. Expecting some accumulations along the coast.

[anotherman]

4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Visiting Cape May today for Christmas. Hit snow as soon as we hit Jersey. Expecting some accumulations along the coast.

Cape May is awesome!  Have fun in the snow.  Also, you changed your username and I was confused.

[pasnownut]

21 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

You'll have to forgive me if I'm having a hard time buying a storm missing us low and inside in early December. That just seems opposite of anything that has ever happened here. 

I feel like when we get weekend storms, the model tide turns on Wednesday. Let's see what happens.

Seeing that we are still at 4+ days out, this is correct and why we shouldn't invest every minute parsing through op runs at this juncture.  Look for overall trends and subtle shifts on pattern, trough axis, jet structure etc, and weigh on Ens guidance until tomorrow, then you can start nitpicking the ops apart and seeing how it can go right...or wrong.  This is far from over.  

[sauss06]

13 minutes ago, anotherman said:

Cape May is awesome!  Have fun in the snow.  Also, you changed your username and I was confused.

i had to look twice as well. 

13 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Seeing that we are still at 4+ days out, this is correct and why we shouldn't invest every minute parsing through op runs at this juncture.  Look for overall trends and subtle shifts on pattern, trough axis, jet structure etc, and weigh on Ens guidance until tomorrow, then you can start nitpicking the ops apart and seeing how it can go right...or wrong.  This is far from over.  

I'm planning on a snow storm, buying beer and snacks. However i won't go as far as gassing up the snow blower, we all know thats trouble. 

 

37 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

You'll have to forgive me if I'm having a hard time buying a storm missing us low and inside in early December. That just seems opposite of anything that has ever happened here. 

I feel like when we get weekend storms, the model tide turns on Wednesday. Let's see what happens.

see above 

[Rd9108]

Just now, sauss06 said:

i had to look twice as well. 

I'm planning on a snow storm, buying beer and snacks. However i won't go as far as gassing up the snow blower, we all know thats trouble. 

 

see above 

Are you a volunteer or paid firefighter? Off topic but just had to ask.