paweather Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 On 11/30/2018 at 1:25 PM, pasnownut said: Watch the rest of the GFS run. That storm track would absolutely crush most of this subforum. HP is big and is there, and likely would be undermodeled for CAD signal if it is at 1041mb. Yes moves unfavorably (not sure i buy that move) to more of an easterly fetch, but at 700 we are fine, and only lower levels are in trouble. 500 evolution is not a great look, but plenty of time for this to change. FWIW GEFS looks notably different (better) at 500 so, i'd hang my little hat on it for now... However the outcome, this looks like one to watch. Agreed GFS now goes snow to rain for us but an improvement. Long ways away. let’s hope the trends go favorable next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 1, 2018 Author Share Posted December 1, 2018 1 minute ago, paweather said: Agreed GFS now goes snow to rain for us but an improvement. Long ways away. let’s hope the trends go favorable next week. And the Euro is well south if the GFS and gives DC and south a beatdown. Fv3 was decent (although I didn’t look hard as I was doing brakes and rotors in wives SUV.). Point is a notable storm continues to look more likely. All we can hope for at this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 The 12z EPS took a good step up in snow amounts for next weekend’s snow potential, especially for the LSV. There are several EPS ensemble members that provide great snow hits for CTP, with the best possible jackpot area being the southern half of PA. There are still a cluster of EPS ensemble members showing nothing for our region, & some still have minimal amounts that probably reflect cutter or inland storm tracks. The Ops will continue to shift around the next few days. The potential is certainly there for a memorable Early December snow storm for CTP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 1, 2018 Author Share Posted December 1, 2018 51 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The 12z EPS took a good step up in snow amounts for next weekend’s snow potential, especially for the LSV. There are several EPS ensemble members that provide great snow hits for CTP, with the best possible jackpot area being the southern half of PA. There are still a cluster of EPS ensemble members showing nothing for our region, & some still have minimal amounts that probably reflect cutter or inland storm tracks. The Ops will continue to shift around the next few days. The potential is certainly there for a memorable Early December snow storm for CTP. Good to hear and agree. Op runs are just for fun at this juncture and should be taken with a grain of salt. Consensus and early track is all we really can take away from this lead time. Ens runs till about 5 days then we can start adding weight to the Op runs. It sure is easy to wanna believe though. No two ways about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 1 hour ago, pasnownut said: And the Euro is well south if the GFS and gives DC and south a beatdown. Fv3 was decent (although I didn’t look hard as I was doing brakes and rotors in wives SUV.). Point is a notable storm continues to look more likely. All we can hope for at this juncture. No doubt Blizz and PA signal is well there. We want a strong high up to our north just not too strong ;-) but the setup looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 I think most of us in CTP could live with this 18z GFS result next weekend! The track is far from settled, but I like where we sit right now. On to the 0z runs tonight ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 1, 2018 Author Share Posted December 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I think most of us in CTP could live with this 18z GFS result next weekend! The track is far from settled, but I like where we sit right now. On to the 0z runs tonight ! MA forum is somewhat in a tizzy, but vs 12z, this was a step in the right direction. First show of a transfer to the coast, and mid levels were better IMO. Much work to be done, but at a week out....plenty of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 6 minutes ago, pasnownut said: MA forum is somewhat in a tizzy, but vs 12z, this was a step in the right direction. First show of a transfer to the coast, and mid levels were better IMO. Much work to be done, but at a week out....plenty of time. Yes, I would rather take our chances with this kind of set up instead of dealing with a coastal storm that crushes I-95 but then puts us on the fringes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 :looks at 0z GFS: It moved, fellas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 16 minutes ago, canderson said: :looks at 0z GFS: It moved, fellas. Yes! It is perfect. It’s like I got to draw the map! The placement of the low off of the Delmarva coast is ideal. If only we could lock this in now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 The 0z Euro joined the party & brought the goods to the LSV. With this low position & track, I think precip would be heavier & even more expansive further back into CTP. I think most of the LSV crew here would be happy with this current outcome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 It’s going to be a looonnng week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 2, 2018 Author Share Posted December 2, 2018 29 minutes ago, sauss06 said: It’s going to be a looonnng week yep. 6z's now bring suppression depression into the mix when last evening we were cutting.... so many hazzards to this sport. Gut says too early in season for this system to be suppressed so far south. I was/am more worried about too far NW track. Will be fun to watch. One good takeaway is warmup continues to look less ominous. Happy Sunday all! Nut 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Recent history and the calendar push hard against a suppressed system. I guess it can happen but it’d be against the norm and highly unusual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 2, 2018 Author Share Posted December 2, 2018 41 minutes ago, canderson said: Recent history and the calendar push hard against a suppressed system. I guess it can happen but it’d be against the norm and highly unusual. Did you read my post in the MA forum....its like were inside each others brain..... cant agree more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 2 hours ago, pasnownut said: Did you read my post in the MA forum....its like were inside each others brain..... cant agree more. I avoid that subforum like the plague, but that’s funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 2, 2018 Author Share Posted December 2, 2018 16 minutes ago, canderson said: I avoid that subforum like the plague, but that’s funny. Necessary evil for me. its where i have to go for my weather analysis fix. We can rock it pretty well in here, but just not as frequently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 I've never rooted against snow in my 53 years but I am for for next weekend. My wife and daughters are leaving Sunday morning for a little 500 mile trip to the high country of North Carolina. At the very least I hope the timing is delayed...though I realize that hurts our snow chances big time. I'll be much quieter than normal for this go round as the last thing I want to be is a wet blanket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 12 minutes ago, maytownpawx said: I've never rooted against snow in my 53 years but I am for for next weekend. My wife and daughters are leaving Sunday morning for a little 500 mile trip to the high country of North Carolina. At the very least I hope the timing is delayed...though I realize that hurts our snow chances big time. I'll be much quieter than normal for this go round as the last thing I want to be is a wet blanket. Now you know why I am the way I am wrt snowstorms. I'm the one doing that kind of driving in a 70' long vehicle that weighs up to 80,000 lbs and bends 1/4 of the way back. Snow and ice are extremely dangerous and nerve wracking conditions for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, Voyager said: Now you know why I am the way I am wrt snowstorms. I'm the one doing that kind of driving in a 70' long vehicle that weighs up to 80,000 lbs and bends 1/4 of the way back. Snow and ice are extremely dangerous and nerve wracking conditions for me. Yeah...I get it for sure. I HATE rooting against snow. I feel like a trader. Hopefully there's a way we can score and she can get down their safely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 The EPS at 0z improved very much from the 12z run yesterday. The mean snow amount & the low locations of most of the EPS ensemble members improved as well. We are still very much in the game with 6 days still to go ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 3, 2018 Author Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The EPS at 0z improved very much from the 12z run yesterday. The mean snow amount & the low locations of most of the EPS ensemble members improved as well. We are still very much in the game with 6 days still to go ! CMC looked decent as well. Gonna be a long week for sure as this one looks to be a formidable early season event for the lucky ones in the bullseye. Seeing the GFS camp head so far south is concerning, but having the King/CMC on our side is not bad at this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 hour ago, pasnownut said: CMC looked decent as well. Gonna be a long week for sure as this one looks to be a formidable early season event for the lucky ones in the bullseye. Seeing the GFS camp head so far south is concerning, but having the King/CMC on our side is not bad at this juncture. LOL King/CMC. Lots of different solutions right now. Plenty of time, long week ahead. If we miss this one, the positive is we are early into the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 The 12z GFS doesn't even get precip above the North Carolina/Virginia border it appears. Talk about a swing and a miss - it's more like a "let's play volleyball on a baseball field." 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 20 minutes ago, canderson said: The 12z GFS doesn't even get precip above the North Carolina/Virginia border it appears. Talk about a swing and a miss - it's more like a "let's play volleyball on a baseball field." we've all seen this dog and pony show before! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 3, 2018 Author Share Posted December 3, 2018 47 minutes ago, sauss06 said: we've all seen this dog and pony show before! Thankfully yes but GFS is either way wrong or heartbreak hotel. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 This next storm potential has had a strong signal pretty much right off the bat as it got into the D8-10 range. Very clear to me that at least so far in this early season the southern stream is a major factor in our sensible weather pattern. Given the source region I would expect this potential system to be a moisture laden one. I think the problem currently on the models is the storm pattern is being progged as progressive. The western ridge isn't anchored and progresses east as the next trough and system impacts the west coast. So I think amplification and northward progression will be limited at least some... but there's plenty of time for this to trend back north. This may be a system with a sharp cutoff and that may fall in this region somewhere. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 55 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: This next storm potential has had a strong signal pretty much right off the bat as it got into the D8-10 range. Very clear to me that at least so far in this early season the southern stream is a major factor in our sensible weather pattern. Given the source region I would expect this potential system to be a moisture laden one. I think the problem currently on the models is the storm pattern is being progged as progressive. The western ridge isn't anchored and progresses east as the next trough and system impacts the west coast. So I think amplification and northward progression will be limited at least some... but there's plenty of time for this to trend back north. This may be a system with a sharp cutoff and that may fall in this region somewhere. I can make a guess where Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 hour ago, MAG5035 said: This next storm potential has had a strong signal pretty much right off the bat as it got into the D8-10 range. Very clear to me that at least so far in this early season the southern stream is a major factor in our sensible weather pattern. Given the source region I would expect this potential system to be a moisture laden one. I think the problem currently on the models is the storm pattern is being progged as progressive. The western ridge isn't anchored and progresses east as the next trough and system impacts the west coast. So I think amplification and northward progression will be limited at least some... but there's plenty of time for this to trend back north. This may be a system with a sharp cutoff and that may fall in this region somewhere. The Agh county border will be the sharp cut off. That's usually how these things play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 2 hours ago, 2001kx said: I can make a guess where Eric Horst believes a miss is likely all the way down here, so there's that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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