AllWeather Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 7 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: Nice video on the FB, son. Thanks duderino! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Dew points in lower teens. Gotta love that.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 abc 27 going for 3-7" for south central pa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 18z suite is great for everyone. Colder and bit more juiced. Reinforces at least the lower end. Also good to see low dews to better help wet bulbing. Have fun all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 DT going more aggressive: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 He may be pretty spot on with his contours, which I rather like. Whether his numbers verify remain to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, Voyager said: He may be pretty spot on with his contours, which I rather like. Whether his numbers verify remain to be seen. Agreed. And anyone who busts tomorrow, be it high or low, deserves a pass with this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, canderson said: Agreed. And anyone who busts tomorrow, be it high or low, deserves a pass with this setup. Absolutely! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 32 minutes ago, canderson said: Agreed. And anyone who busts tomorrow, be it high or low, deserves a pass with this setup. Totally agree. This is a crazy setup being mid November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Exactly, this thing could range from nuisance to high impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 39 minutes ago, canderson said: Agreed. And anyone who busts tomorrow, be it high or low, deserves a pass with this setup. I gave your wife a pass with this setup. High. #HIYO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 32 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: I gave your wife a pass with this setup. High. #HIYO She says you buste ... nevermind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 She says you buste ... nevermind.Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 27 minutes ago, canderson said: She says you buste ... nevermind. That's right. You ain't notice her breakouts lately? What do you think's been causing that? Cheeseburgers and Hershey Bars? Not quite #DroppinLoads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 The EPS ensemble mean at 12z today was flat out impressive. This would normally be a nice map for a 10 day period in mid winter! Here it is for the storm that is on our doorstep! Even if you cut the amounts in half, it would still be a great snow storm for the middle of November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 11 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The EPS ensemble mean at 12z today was flat out impressive. This would normally be a nice map for a 10 day period in mid winter! Here it is for the storm that is on our doorstep! Even if you cut the amounts in half, it would still be a great snow storm for the middle of November. Everything I read today seems to point to a ripe winter pattern by the end of the month. Good times, or at least good tracking times are ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 This radar showing the wall of precip streaming north into our cold air dome with dew points in the teens has me fired up! P.S. we get to do this for 4 more months ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, maytownpawx said: Everything I read today seems to point to a ripe winter pattern by the end of the month. Good times, or at least good tracking times are ahead. The EPS that I posted is just for our current storm with amounts through Friday! Yes, the pattern also looks great heading into early December ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 The winter of 2012/13 started November 12th and ended sometime in March. We're due. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Going frame by frame on the 0z HRRR on Tropical Tidbits with sim radar and all I can say is "wow"... IMBY it gives 8 hours of snow before a flip to sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 38 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: This radar showing the wall of precip streaming north into our cold air dome with dew points in the teens has me fired up! P.S. we get to do this for 4 more months ! That radar is juiced...if only it was going to be all snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 25 minutes ago, Voyager said: Going frame by frame on the 0z HRRR on Tropical Tidbits with sim radar and all I can say is "wow"... IMBY it gives 8 hours of snow before a flip to sleet. Seems to show the entire Susq. Valley, or close, in 6-12" with an 1-2" deform band goodbye at the end. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 37/16! A crapload of moisture incoming. Wishing it was Jan 14 instead of Nov 14 cause I’m greedy but let’s do this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, canderson said: 37/16! A crapload of moisture incoming. Wishing it was Jan 14 instead of Nov 14 cause I’m greedy but let’s do this. 32/19 here. This storm could do more than most Jan storms as it is. Many winters we get no storms with the potential for a foot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 NAM to me looks cold. And very wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 The 3k High Res NAM really upped the ante for the LSV on its 0z run ! In previous runs it was only showing a couple inches in York & Lancaster, but now it shows this : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The 3k High Res NAM really upped the ante for the LSV on its 0z run ! In previous runs it was only showing a couple inches in York & Lancaster, but now it shows this : Keep in mind, these are 10:1 output maps. Doesn’t factor in sleet. The model output for rimed flakes/sleet will add up as snow in this format. In this storm, Ferrier Method is superior over 10:1 maps. Cut those map map totals in half for the LSV, and it still might be overdone. Warm air aloft waits for no one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Horst wrote on Twitter 30 minutes about how tricky this forecast is and if Lancaster is a degree or two colder then it’s 6”+ for them. . Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: Horst wrote on Twitter 30 minutes about how tricky this forecast is and if Lancaster is a degree or two colder then it’s 6”+ for them. . Pro Aloft in particular. Riding a very fine line between cold enough throughout the profile to support snow for longer. New NAM holds off the sleet a little longer than previous runs/other models because of the stronger omega in the DGZ, helps keep the column at/below freezing, and staves off the WAA aloft until later in the afternoon. If the omega is modeled too strong, then you don’t have that opportunity and you change over quickly. It really could go either way. If it’s all snow, it probably won’t be 10:1. Sloppy, wet, heavy stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 6 minutes ago, AllWeather said: Keep in mind, these are 10:1 output maps. Doesn’t factor in sleet. The model output for rimed flakes/sleet will add up as snow in this format. In this storm, Ferrier Method is superior over 10:1 maps. Cut those map map totals in half for the LSV, and it still might be overdone. Warm air aloft waits for no one. I agree, but the trend has been colder on the models from 12z ,& the 3k NAM in particular has made a significant jump up with snow totals for the LSV at 0z Ratios will play a large role, but the trend is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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