Superstorm Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 Looks like first freeze of season at Millersville. Let the games begin.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 46 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Looks like first freeze of season at Millersville. Let the games begin. . i didn't park in garage, i had to scrape this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 Am I only one who finds fall weather very mundane? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 4 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Am I only one who finds fall weather very mundane? No, i'm sure there are others. I'm not one of them, but i'm sure you'll find some who are in your camp! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 Lol just talk of Frost and stuff is boring to me, and I do like the nice days don't get me wrong, but 54 and partly cloudy for week stretches are blehhh to interesting weather enthusiasts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 6 hours ago, Wmsptwx said: Am I only one who finds fall weather very mundane? Having read this, I have just decided that you're the kind of guy who thinks Mike's Hard Lemonade is the height of edge and anything other than missionary position is the gyration of godless heathens and sodomites. And yes, you're the only one. Also: Buncha GD drunks in this forum. I'm going to crash both of your Halloween parties. Dressed as the other. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 While hilarious, your statement is false....nothing exciting about Frost advisories and dry cold fronts....unless that's your thangggg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 On 10/19/2018 at 7:21 AM, Superstorm said: Looks like first freeze of season at Millersville. Let the games begin. . Let the games begin indeed! The latest Euro weeklies look fantastic from now through the end of the run through the first week of December. The trough is in the east, with a ridge in the west & higher heights up top near the pole.This run features temps below normal for the eastern half of the US for the next 6 weeks. The 46 day snow map, for what it’s worth, shows all of CTP getting on the board by the end of this run on December 3rd. It has near 3 inches of snow in the southern part of CTP & closer to 6 inches north of I-80 & near I-99. By the way, there is a chance of an interesting coastal storm the last few days of October that we need to watch ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 Lots of us might see some flakes mixed in overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 Went on a short drive and it is snowing on top of Wopsy Mountain just above town a little while ago. My house is around 1300' and mangled flakes started past 1500' with a full transition after 2000'. Start of a dusting and 34ºF and wind driven big snowflakes at the top (a tad above 2400'). That's about a 5 mile drive up from my house. 511 cams showing a solid coating on the US 219 and 22 corridors in Cambria County. Now mixing here since I've gotten back and wind is howling. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted October 21, 2018 Author Share Posted October 21, 2018 2 hours ago, MAG5035 said: Went on a short drive and it is snowing on top of Wopsy Mountain just above town a little while ago. My house is around 1300' and mangled flakes started past 1500' with a full transition after 2000'. Start of a dusting and 34ºF and wind driven big snowflakes at the top (a tad above 2400'). That's about a 5 mile drive up from my house. 511 cams showing a solid coating on the US 219 and 22 corridors in Cambria County. Now mixing here since I've gotten back and wind is howling. My wife told me that there were flakes missing in (friends were posting on FB) during backend of frontal passage. Of course flood lights went on and I kept getting up during every 10 min. looking out the window for first catpaw confirmation....I saw none. Its nice to know I'm not alone with my passion for snow. Y'all make me feel......well......normal (ish). looks like late november weather is here for the week. Flakes are flying and a couple chances at ground whiteners in the typical spots. Enjoy your Sunday gang. Lots to do.....winters coming !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 Modeling has been hinting at a timeframe (Oct 28-30ish) where an amplification in the pattern could yield the first legit coastal threat of the fall/winter. Todays 12z Euro showed a nice coastal right on the Delmarva next Sat night/Sun morning. The GFS has the same southern wave but late northern stream interaction resulting in a miss, but the feature is obvious and on a pretty familiar positioning vs other guidance for GFS standards. The Canadian went off the deep end with a Delmarva 967mb bomb curling into eastern PA at 975mb. Probably quite overzealous there, but ensemble guidance lends decent support (considering D6-7 range) for some kind of a coastal system. Of note with this potential would be a charged southern stream given the East Pac hurricane (Willa) being progged to be drawn up through Mexico into the Gulf. It could be a very robust coastal storm if we got the well timed phase. The European taken at face value with the finer details was probably only a couple degrees off of being a paste bomb in at least a sizeable portion of interior central PA but I would still interpret a elevational heavy snow threat in some of the higher Laurels/northern PA locations on that solution. We shall see how this evolves this week...the potential is there at least. I will say I would be quite concerned if an early season heavy snowfall were to materialize at any point in the next 2-3 weeks given the progress of our "fall foliage" so far this fall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
medmax Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 Just moved back to PA this summer from New England (Boston area). I was excited to have the weekend off and have four tickets for my friends and I to go see the PSU game. What is this I hear about an early nor-easter tied to the Pacific hurricane? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 1 hour ago, medmax said: Just moved back to PA this summer from New England (Boston area). I was excited to have the weekend off and have four tickets for my friends and I to go see the PSU game. What is this I hear about an early nor-easter tied to the Pacific hurricane? Prepare now for heartbreak and disappointment mixed in with "I've never seen it snow this hard" once a year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
medmax Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 From York originally. I’m familiar with the horrible slushy, icy crap we get here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 18 minutes ago, medmax said: From York originally. I’m familiar with the horrible slushy, icy crap we get here Honestly down here we've had an insane run the past 10 or so years and no one can really complain. Like, we had an 8.5" last March that was awesome fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 21 hours ago, MAG5035 said: Modeling has been hinting at a timeframe (Oct 28-30ish) where an amplification in the pattern could yield the first legit coastal threat of the fall/winter. Todays 12z Euro showed a nice coastal right on the Delmarva next Sat night/Sun morning. The GFS has the same southern wave but late northern stream interaction resulting in a miss, but the feature is obvious and on a pretty familiar positioning vs other guidance for GFS standards. The Canadian went off the deep end with a Delmarva 967mb bomb curling into eastern PA at 975mb. Probably quite overzealous there, but ensemble guidance lends decent support (considering D6-7 range) for some kind of a coastal system. Of note with this potential would be a charged southern stream given the East Pac hurricane (Willa) being progged to be drawn up through Mexico into the Gulf. It could be a very robust coastal storm if we got the well timed phase. The European taken at face value with the finer details was probably only a couple degrees off of being a paste bomb in at least a sizeable portion of interior central PA but I would still interpret a elevational heavy snow threat in some of the higher Laurels/northern PA locations on that solution. We shall see how this evolves this week...the potential is there at least. I will say I would be quite concerned if an early season heavy snowfall were to materialize at any point in the next 2-3 weeks given the progress of our "fall foliage" so far this fall. This evenings CTP AFD starts the hype. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 Henry "the Kiss of Death" Margusity has also begun hyping things along with Steven DiMartino. I wonder if Brad Sweitzer will be out tracking the crippling snowfall that is headed for York, PA and only York, PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 The CTP afternoon discussion today gave a good summary of the potential coastal storm this weekend. The models of course are portraying a wide variety of storm tracks. It will be interesting to watch this storm develop over the next few days. The 18z GFS today says that a good portion of CTP gets some snow this weekend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 That's a weird placement of a random 5 inch projection at the point where Franklin, Perry, Juniata, and Huntingdon counties meet considering that's almost going to be one of the lowest-lying areas of the state. I think the elevation of Blain and Blairs Mills is about 600 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 On October 20, 2018 at 10:53 AM, Blizzard of 93 said: Let the games begin indeed! The latest Euro weeklies look fantastic from now through the end of the run through the first week of December. The trough is in the east, with a ridge in the west & higher heights up top near the pole.This run features temps below normal for the eastern half of the US for the next 6 weeks. The 46 day snow map, for what it’s worth, shows all of CTP getting on the board by the end of this run on December 3rd. It has near 3 inches of snow in the southern part of CTP & closer to 6 inches north of I-80 & near I-99. By the way, there is a chance of an interesting coastal storm the last few days of October that we need to watch ! I'm interested to see what the weather brings this winter after such a wet summer. Will it be wet/dry winter.... Are we in El Niño weather pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted October 23, 2018 Author Share Posted October 23, 2018 24 minutes ago, pawatch said: I'm interested to see what the weather brings this winter after such a wet summer. Will it be wet/dry winter.... Are we in El Niño weather pattern? El nino has 75% likelihood of verifying. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 Damn look at this nor'easter on the GFS. Holy smokes if it were January we might all faint. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 I have a very hard time believing that a nor'easter is going to develop in marginally cold air in October and not drop a ****load of concrete on folks 100 or so miles west of the centre. I just keep thinking it's October 29, 2011 all over again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 Just now, Atomixwx said: I have a very hard time believing that a nor'easter is going to develop in marginally cold air in October and not drop a ****load of concrete on folks 100 or so miles west of the centre. I just keep thinking it's October 29, 2011 all over again. Isn't the problem here temps moderate quite a bit out ahead and since it can't usher in true arctic air it'll now allow so much of a concrete mess? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 Should be an interesting Weekend, lots of rain maybe some flakes love this weather right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 3 hours ago, canderson said: Isn't the problem here temps moderate quite a bit out ahead and since it can't usher in true arctic air it'll now allow so much of a concrete mess? Yes, I believe especially when the system is coming in more of a SW/NE track. Hopefully the storm can pull in some cold with it to prevent a total wash. I can't entirely remember the 10/29/11 event and the mechanisms in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 5 hours ago, Atomixwx said: I have a very hard time believing that a nor'easter is going to develop in marginally cold air in October and not drop a ****load of concrete on folks 100 or so miles west of the centre. I just keep thinking it's October 29, 2011 all over again. We'll have to see how the models address temps aloft the next couple days as we get closer to the timeframe of this potential storm. Right now they seem to have moderated a bit in the last several runs, being close but not there for a widespread snowfall. The placement of the surface and 850mb lows are very good, but just not enough cold available. I'm still pretty confident on this ending up at least a high elevation snow threat in the Laurels/northern mountains but not sure about the central counties and LSV. It is kinda similar to the 2011 event but minus the tropical source via Hurricane Willas eventual remnants. This will probably be a wetter storm but unfortunately a warmer one than that one. We had a more impressive cold air mass in place for 2011, which made that storm have a feel of a storm a month or so later than it occurred. It's hard to get that kind of a widespread storm this early. Storm isn't really tremendously deep on models right now either (including the crazy Canadian). I think we'd need a more dynamic low (in the 980s or more) to maybe promote cooling aloft via that. Also, if we do get the Oct 2011 repeat...I sure wouldn't want the winter 11/12 repeat to go with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted October 24, 2018 Author Share Posted October 24, 2018 I'll tell you what. Glad I'm a couple years past dressup for haloween. 534 thicknesszzz traversing rt 6 w/ 540's south of the MD line is going to make for some cold trick n treatin.... as that northern vort is lagging far enough behind to not help the weekend catpaw potential for most (save the laurels and N mountains like Meteo Mag alluded to), the system on its heels-Tues (if you were rooting on snow) would potentially show some surprises. Mind you this is just boredom and extrapolating verbatim happy hour GooFuS runs for the heck of it but it shows a coastal transfer with enough cold to get mood flakes on the backside for central and NE locals. No matter how the evolution pans out, its fun to be surfin model runs again. Looks active. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted October 24, 2018 Share Posted October 24, 2018 looks like rain from sometime Friday evening right through Monday. Wet and raw in the low 40s. The 2011 event, MDT official was 9.7. it had quite a cutoff too. South and east was much better then west. i only recorded 3". Wasn't someone from the weather channel in Harrisburg for this event? And i agree with Mag, the rest of that winter sucked. We only had a handful of events with Saturday January 21st, 5.25" as the biggest. i only recorded 13.25 for the season. Saturday should make for an interesting time in Happy Valley. Glad i don't have tickets for that game, 330 kickoff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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