Central PA Fall 2018

[pasnownut]

14 hours ago, canderson said:

We will go straight from 80 to 40 and miss autumn entirely. This year SUCKS. 

relax young spritle....

Happy leaf peekin....

[pasnownut]

and even further out....

GFS bias likely warms as we near....but it looks like the end of this God forsaken sticky sh!t is near.  Headin to Cedar Run for my 25th anniversary this afternoon, so keep an eye on the fort while I'm gone.  Dont let the warmies play w/ da models while I'm away :).  Happy Weekend all!!

Nut

[Wmsptwx]

Lol I am wondering who the first one excited over -30 wind chills will be.

[sauss06]

14 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

and even further out....

GFS bias likely warms as we near....but it looks like the end of this God forsaken sticky sh!t is near.  Headin to Cedar Run for my 25th anniversary this afternoon, so keep an eye on the fort while I'm gone.  Dont let the warmies play w/ da models while I'm away :).  Happy Weekend all!!

Nut

Happy Anniversary bro. 

[sauss06]

Just now, Wmsptwx said:

Lol I am wondering who the first one excited over -30 wind chills will be.

well, 

[Wmsptwx]

Happy anniversary nut

[Itstrainingtime]

PA tornado count is now up to 15! (Source: SPC)

[canderson]

I’m in Dallas. It’s hot as summer here too still.

[Itstrainingtime]

On 10/5/2018 at 4:03 PM, canderson said:

I’m in Dallas. It’s hot as summer here too still.

You go to the Red River rivalry? Hook 'em Horns! 

Very muggy here in Pittsburgh. Drove through a torrential thunderstorm on the pike near Monroeville yesterday.

[canderson]

12 hours ago, maytownpawx said:

You go to the Red River rivalry? Hook 'em Horns! 

Very muggy here in Pittsburgh. Drove through a torrential thunderstorm on the pike near Monroeville yesterday.

I did. Now in Austin for a few days. 

It’s 6:02 p.m. and OU still sucks! 

[TheDreamTraveler]

73 degrees here around Harrisburg at 4 am. Humid, hot, trees have barely started to change color, and there's crickets chirping still lol. I can't believe we have 3 more nights of this. Luckily the temperature just plummets into the low 60s and high 50s afterwards but then we see some higher 60's later on. I had a feeling that was going to happen. Can we get a more normal cooler autumn for once?

I thought it was interesting that a lot of places around here have had their warmest min temp averages on record for september. Would explain why the trees haven't started to change color yet.

[sauss06]

2 hours ago, TheDreamTraveler said:

73 degrees here around Harrisburg at 4 am. Humid, hot, trees have barely started to change color, and there's crickets chirping still lol. I can't believe we have 3 more nights of this. Luckily the temperature just plummets into the low 60s and high 50s afterwards but then we see some higher 60's later on. I had a feeling that was going to happen. Can we get a more normal cooler autumn for once?

I thought it was interesting that a lot of places around here have had their warmest min temp averages on record for september. Would explain why the trees haven't started to change color yet.

Yeah, really sucks. It was 80 degrees last night coming home from the Hockey game. It was more like July 7th at 8pm them October 7th at 8 pm. 

I had to turn the air back on last night. Looks like Thursday is the magic day...............when fall arrives 

[pasnownut]

Nice weekend in the northwoods.  Sticky and all, but still a nice time.  Colors have started north of WSPT and at cabin, I'd say its well underway.  Looking forward to true fall this upcoming weekend.  Its been long enough for us.  SER appears to be going going.....and hopefully gone.

Nut

[sauss06]

42 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Nice weekend in the northwoods.  Sticky and all, but still a nice time.  Colors have started north of WSPT and at cabin, I'd say its well underway.  Looking forward to true fall this upcoming weekend.  Its been long enough for us.  SER appears to be going going.....and hopefully gone.

Nut

Whats affect is Tropical Storm Michael going to have on us, if any? 

[Voyager]

On 10/5/2018 at 9:36 AM, Wmsptwx said:

Lol I am wondering who the first one excited over -30 wind chills will be.

It can assure that it won't be me...lol. I just had a glorious 4 day run south to Florida. It was 90+ degrees for three of them... 

4 hours ago, TheDreamTraveler said:

Can we get a more normal cooler autumn for once?

Sure. Next time we have a normal April with no snowstorms... 

[sauss06]

51 minutes ago, Voyager said:

It can assure that it won't be me...lol. I just had a glorious 4 day run south to Florida. It was 90+ degrees for three of them... 

Sure. Next time we have a normal April with no snowstorms... 

Hush your mouth with this 90 degree Chit 

[pasnownut]

46 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

Whats affect is Tropical Storm Michael going to have on us, if any? 

Looks like alot of disparity among the op runs.  GEM/GFS say we drench....Euro/ICON say southern slider.  With SER in its waning stages, and frontal boundary on the doorstep, my gut says while we get a "good" rainer, the southern slider solutions like the Euro depict would hold more water .  See what i did there?  

Any slower northward movement of TS Michael would further support my thinking as well.  If frontal boundary lags, then more northern options could be in play. 

Thats what my guts saying......or is that the coffee.....??

Nut

[sauss06]

2 hours ago, pasnownut said:

Looks like alot of disparity among the op runs.  GEM/GFS say we drench....Euro/ICON say southern slider.  With SER in its waning stages, and frontal boundary on the doorstep, my gut says while we get a "good" rainer, the southern slider solutions like the Euro depict would hold more water .  See what i did there?  

Any slower northward movement of TS Michael would further support my thinking as well.  If frontal boundary lags, then more northern options could be in play. 

Thats what my guts saying......or is that the coffee.....??

Nut

could bring us some decent precip. Friday/saturday

[Wmsptwx]

Wednesday and Thursday look soggy.

[pasnownut]

Hoping after Friday we get cool and dry.  Looks like it anyway.  

[pasnownut]

Looking at overnights, it really looks like Thursday night is the start of true fall round these parts.  Looking forward to it.  AOBN for as far as the eye (model) can see.  Ensemble 2m temp anomalies look to support this at varying degrees.  

I'm in.

Nut

[sauss06]

56 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Looking at overnights, it really looks like Thursday night is the start of true fall round these parts.  Looking forward to it.  AOBN for as far as the eye (model) can see.  Ensemble 2m temp anomalies look to support this at varying degrees.  

I'm in.

Nut

finally.

 

[canderson]

Got back from Texas around 2:30 a.m. Was in a black hole so haven't followed much of anything except UT football and the Red Sox. Good to see fall arrives tomorrow. 

And I just saw a massive hurricane is about to hit Florida. I had no idea. Wow. 

[anotherman]

[anotherman]

[anotherman]

[sauss06]

I believe they're gonna get rocked. WOW

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, canderson said:

Got back from Texas around 2:30 a.m. Was in a black hole so haven't followed much of anything except UT football and the Red Sox. Good to see fall arrives tomorrow. 

And I just saw a massive hurricane is about to hit Florida. I had no idea. Wow. 

Welcome back.  Hope you werent in the black hole pictured above. 

 

Yikes

[MAG5035]

A much overdue significant shift in the pattern is being preceded by today's landfall of major hurricane Michael... the strongest storm to impact the Continental US (wind wise) since Hurricane Andrew in 1992 and likely the strongest Oct CONUS impact on record. Hurricane Hazel in mid Oct 1954 is the only one I can think of that came anywhere close. That one impacted the Carolinas as a somewhat weaker Cat 4 (which is a rare event in the Carolina region even during peak tropical season) and came roaring up through the heart of PA as a Cat 1 hurricane.

Similarly to Michael, Hurricane Opal in 1995 peaked as a 150mph Cat 4 in the Gulf but weakened to a lower end Cat 3 prior to landfalling near Pensacola. Storms reaching that magnitude are not necessarily unprecedented this time of year the Gulf of Mexico but a storm impacting as such certainly is, particularly in that section of the Gulf Coast... where in general most northward moving hurricanes typically get influenced by shear being picked up by an approaching trough. It is obvious looking at the GOES 16 satellite imagery of the approach and landfall that this thing peaked at the right (worst) time. Just prior to landfall the eye cleared out and achieved that perfect symmetrical "look" that is a hallmark of high end major hurricanes. There's going to be some major wind damage to go along with the major surge impacts from this hurricane. 

With regards to our sensible weather here in C-PA.. the direct rainfall shield from what's left of the storm by that point would appear to be mainly south and east of us save for maybe SE PA. What we will have is rainfall associated with the frontal boundary which will likely gather some of Michael's moisture and perhaps yield a period of enhanced rainfall before the frontal passage. In the wake of all that will be a major drop in temperatures for the weekend and perhaps beyond. Temps in the Laurels might not get out of the 40s on Saturday. Long range GFS in particular could potentially stir up some flakes in the mountains in theory as it builds a pretty significant western ridge and eastern trough for a time and brings sub 0ºC air at 850mb into the commonwealth this weekend and then again later next week. Talk about a massive pattern shift after one of the warmest starts to October ever. 

[canderson]

1 hour ago, MAG5035 said:

A much overdue significant shift in the pattern is being preceded by today's landfall of major hurricane Michael... the strongest storm to impact the Continental US (wind wise) since Hurricane Andrew in 1992 and likely the strongest Oct CONUS impact on record. Hurricane Hazel in mid Oct 1954 is the only one I can think of that came anywhere close. That one impacted the Carolinas as a somewhat weaker Cat 4 (which is a rare event in the Carolina region even during peak tropical season) and came roaring up through the heart of PA as a Cat 1 hurricane.

Similarly to Michael, Hurricane Opal in 1995 peaked as a 150mph Cat 4 in the Gulf but weakened to a lower end Cat 3 prior to landfalling near Pensacola. Storms reaching that magnitude are not necessarily unprecedented this time of year the Gulf of Mexico but a storm impacting as such certainly is, particularly in that section of the Gulf Coast... where in general most northward moving hurricanes typically get influenced by shear being picked up by an approaching trough. It is obvious looking at the GOES 16 satellite imagery of the approach and landfall that this thing peaked at the right (worst) time. Just prior to landfall the eye cleared out and achieved that perfect symmetrical "look" that is a hallmark of high end major hurricanes. There's going to be some major wind damage to go along with the major surge impacts from this hurricane. 

With regards to our sensible weather here in C-PA.. the direct rainfall shield from what's left of the storm by that point would appear to be mainly south and east of us save for maybe SE PA. What we will have is rainfall associated with the frontal boundary which will likely gather some of Michael's moisture and perhaps yield a period of enhanced rainfall before the frontal passage. In the wake of all that will be a major drop in temperatures for the weekend and perhaps beyond. Temps in the Laurels might not get out of the 40s on Saturday. Long range GFS in particular could potentially stir up some flakes in the mountains in theory as it builds a pretty significant western ridge and eastern trough for a time and brings sub 0ºC air at 850mb into the commonwealth this weekend and then again later next week. Talk about a massive pattern shift after one of the warmest starts to October ever. 

Talk dirty more please.