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Central PA Fall 2018


pasnownut
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service State College PA
338 PM EDT TUE OCT 2 2018

The National Weather Service in State College PA has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Southern Warren County in north central Pennsylvania...

* Until 445 PM EDT.

* At 337 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located near Titusville, moving east at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado and ping pong ball size hail.

  SOURCE...Weather spotters reported funnel cloud.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include...
  Sheffield, Grand Valley and Tidioute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the
tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

&&

LAT...LON 4178 7961 4176 7902 4163 7907 4163 7961
      4168 7962
TIME...MOT...LOC 1937Z 272DEG 31KT 4171 7971

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.50IN
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Tornado Watch #392 issued for a sizable majority of PA minus the southern tier counties within the last hour effective until 11pm. Happy October!

NW PA really under the gun right now, new tornado warning issued for Crawford County, of the PDS variety. 

Quote

Tornado Warning PAC039-022015- /O.NEW.KCLE.TO.W.0009.181002T1939Z-181002T2015Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Cleveland OH 339 PM EDT TUE OCT 2 2018 The National Weather Service in Cleveland has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northwestern Crawford County in northwestern Pennsylvania... * Until 415 PM EDT. *

At 338 PM EDT, a large and extremely dangerous tornado was located near Meadville, moving east at 35 mph. Another rotating storm capable of producing a tornado is 5 miles west of Conneautville, moving east at 35 mph toward Conneautville. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes#commaOrEllipsis()businesses#commaOrEllipsis()and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. *

This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern Crawford County, including the following locations... Venango, Conneautville, Woodcock, Saegertown, Blooming Valley and Springboro. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly tornado is developing. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.

&& LAT...LON 4171 8050 4180 8047 4178 8002 4156 8000 TIME...MOT...LOC 1938Z 276DEG 32KT 4170 8018

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED TORNADO DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE HAIL...1.00IN

 

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3 pretty distinct couplets evident on PBZ radar, with the lead couplet (the one with the CTP Warren County Tornado warning just issued most pronounced. Far NW PA isn't overly great for radar coverage at the low levels. PBZ is about the best but beam height is 7-8k feet or so. 

1494091012_ScreenShot2018-10-02at3_46_21PM.thumb.png.99bc1bce71a9a1ccb86fb4338dce5cb0.png

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service State College PA
351 PM EDT TUE OCT 2 2018

The National Weather Service in State College PA has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Northwestern Northumberland County in central Pennsylvania...
  Southeastern Lycoming County in north central Pennsylvania...
  Northwestern Montour County in central Pennsylvania...
  Northwestern Columbia County in central Pennsylvania...

* Until 445 PM EDT.

* At 351 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located over Montgomery, moving east at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
  Delaware Run around 400 PM EDT.
  Muncy around 410 PM EDT.
  Exchange around 420 PM EDT.
  Iola, Jerseytown and Eyers Grove around 440 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Millville and Turbotville.

This includes Interstate 180 from mile markers 5 to 13.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4108 7651 4111 7684 4112 7690 4114 7690
      4115 7696 4114 7696 4114 7698 4117 7699
      4121 7697 4123 7647
TIME...MOT...LOC 1951Z 274DEG 19KT 4117 7691

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
353 PM EDT TUE OCT 2 2018

The National Weather Service in Binghamton has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Southeastern Bradford County in northeastern Pennsylvania...

* Until 430 PM EDT.

* At 353 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located near Franklindale, or 9 miles southwest of Towanda,
  moving east at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
  Monroeton around 405 PM EDT.
  New Albany and South Branch around 410 PM EDT.
  Wyalusing around 425 PM EDT.
  Sugar Run around 430 PM EDT.
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2 hours ago, Tibet said:

411 
NWUS51 KCLE 021850
LSRCLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
250 PM EDT TUE OCT 2 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     TORNADO          5 E CONNEAUTVILLE       41.76N 80.27W 
10/02/2018                   CRAWFORD           PA   TRAINED SPOTTER 

            CONFIRMED TORNADO. NURSING HOME STRUCK BY TORNADO.


&&

$$

LOMBARDY

 

That doesn't sound good

Hopefully, the people had taken shelter in advance of the tornado.

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1 minute ago, Superstorm said:

 


High dewpoints = high minimums = near record warmth


.

 

Story of the summer - it really wasn't about the heat, it was all about the humidity and extremely warm nights without hardly any radiational cooling. 

Hope everyone made out okay yesterday. That event wasn't modeled too well, correct? I think that the Binghamton office had put out a HWO yesterday morning but beyond that i don't recall seeing much to indicate weather of that magnitude in the CTP forecast area...

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Based on the latest guidance, Harrisburg could have a mean temperature of approximately 69° for the first week in October. That would place the first week of October 2018 among the ten warmest such weeks on record. Records go back to 1888.
The 10 warmest first weeks in October are:
1. 74.4°, 1941
2. 72.6°, 1959
3. 71.0°, 2013
4. 70.6°, 2007
5. 70.2°, 1922
6. 70.1°, 1900
7. 69.8°, 1931
8. 69.1°, 1898
9. 69.0°, 1927
10. 68.8°, 1995
From among that set of years, both 1900 and 2007 went on to see October finish with an average monthly temperature of 60° or above. Only six years have had such warm Octobers. The six warmest years are:
1. 62.0°, 2007
2. 61.5°, 1984
3. 61.3°, 1947
4. 61.2°, 2017
5. 60.6°, 1900
6. 60.5°, 1971
Should 2018 finish with a 60° or higher mean temperature, 2017 and 2018 would be the first occurrence of consecutive years with such October warmth.
 


Don (or anyone else),

Do you know of any site where I can get standard deviation values for yearly rainfall for climate reporting sites around Pennsylvania? Trying to avoid having to download all the data and calculate it myself.


. Pro
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1 hour ago, Jns2183 said:

 


Don (or anyone else),

Do you know of any site where I can get standard deviation values for yearly rainfall for climate reporting sites around Pennsylvania? Trying to avoid having to download all the data and calculate it myself.


. Pro

 

Unfortunately, I am not aware of any sites that provide the standard deviations for temperature or precipitation.

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52 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

 

 


Where do you obtain the data sets you use for your analysis?


. Pro

 

I use these the regional climate sites, which can be found at:

http://www.rcc-acis.org/aboutacis_rcc.html (click on the map for the appropriate region)

Two that I use most frequently are:

http://climod2.nrcc.cornell.edu/

https://mrcc.illinois.edu/

 

 

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15 hours ago, maytownpawx said:

I wonder which will be warmer?: (I'm going to both)

  • Steelers-Falcons this Sunday in Pittsburgh (Current forecast high is 82)
  • Jaguars-Texans on 10/21 in Jacksonville

Tough call. Ya know, last year i think you and i were at the same Steelers game. We too were going to go this game, but had to change plans. 

11 hours ago, canderson said:

We will go straight from 80 to 40 and miss autumn entirely. This year SUCKS. 

My nephew and i were having this conversation last night. 

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