Hoosier Posted September 4, 2018 Share Posted September 4, 2018 New advisory is 60 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted September 4, 2018 Share Posted September 4, 2018 First outer band of Gordon is approaching Navarre FL.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted September 4, 2018 Share Posted September 4, 2018 Really dead on the discussion in here lol, less than a drying up clipper hitting mid Atlantic with borderline temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J_Keith_Lee Posted September 4, 2018 Share Posted September 4, 2018 Satellite representation appears to be poor and both recon planes found pressure is slowly rising this morning. I think it's unlikely Gordan reaches hurricane status prior to landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted September 4, 2018 Share Posted September 4, 2018 Yeah, pretty disorganized still late in the going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted September 4, 2018 Share Posted September 4, 2018 I was just going to say IR rep looked a little better, more organized...shows my knowledge lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 4, 2018 Share Posted September 4, 2018 The storms near the center have collapsed over the last hour or so and lightning strikes have ceased after quite a few hours of steady activity. It's probably a combination of some shear and the fact that we're near the diurnal minimum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted September 4, 2018 Share Posted September 4, 2018 Yea, clearly no weakening, just nothing really going off either...will be interesting several hours ahead. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted September 4, 2018 Share Posted September 4, 2018 IR looking solid still, clearly not a big hit but still interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 4, 2018 Share Posted September 4, 2018 10 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: IR looking solid still, clearly not a big hit but still interesting. The center is looking better on radar with deep convection again to both the North and East of the circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted September 4, 2018 Share Posted September 4, 2018 Ehhh I would stay put, these things like to jog west a little closer to land. Definite pickup in NE circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted September 4, 2018 Share Posted September 4, 2018 IR is much improved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 4, 2018 Share Posted September 4, 2018 The radar presentation actually looks quite solid, especially in terms of a tropical storm. The convection in the developing eyewall is pronounced to the North and Northeast of the center. Wherever that tracks will probably experience close to hurricane conditions briefly. If you're looking to chase I would definitely pick a spot somewhere near Mobile or perhaps slightly East of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted September 4, 2018 Share Posted September 4, 2018 It really is organizing nicely and colder cloudtops around center, blown away by lack of interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted September 4, 2018 Share Posted September 4, 2018 For what its worth I am very interested and have been lurking and reading ALL of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted September 4, 2018 Share Posted September 4, 2018 Good to see, hopefully more knowledgeable posters than me stop by, but trend is definitely strengthening this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 4, 2018 Share Posted September 4, 2018 8 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: It really is organizing nicely and colder cloudtops around center, blown away by lack of interest. It's partly because the Atlantic has been such a disappointment the last several years, excluding last year of course. But mainly it's that a high end TS, low end Hurricane landfall on the gulf coast isn't uncommon. If Gordon had more time over water you would see more interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 4, 2018 Share Posted September 4, 2018 FWIW still not seeing that much in terms of lightning strikes over the water in the last few hours despite improvements elsewhere. Most of the lightning currently is in the outer most banding over Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted September 4, 2018 Share Posted September 4, 2018 Yea, probably....for me lack of activity has me more willing to follow anything remotely interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted September 4, 2018 Share Posted September 4, 2018 Not sure, IR and cloudtypes look better presentation wise, but I am far from expert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 4, 2018 Share Posted September 4, 2018 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: It's partly because the Atlantic has been such a disappointment the last several years, excluding last year of course. But mainly it's that a high end TS, low end Hurricane landfall on the gulf coast isn't uncommon. If Gordon had more time over water you would see more interest. Honestly doubting we see a hurricane out of this. If you look at velocity, there is no inner core wind maxima whatsoever and the storm is still lopsided to the north and east. Maybe even slightly decoupled in this direction as well? I don't think it intensifies much more before landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 4, 2018 Share Posted September 4, 2018 1 minute ago, Wmsptwx said: Yea, probably....for me lack of activity has me more willing to follow anything remotely interesting. Some people are happy just to have something interesting to track and others don't care unless a major hurricane is landfalling. It's no different around here than it is during Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted September 4, 2018 Share Posted September 4, 2018 Just now, hlcater said: Honestly doubting we see a hurricane out of this. If you look at velocity, there is no inner core wind maxima whatsoever and the storm is still lopsided to the north and east. Maybe even slightly decoupled in this direction as well? I don't think it intensifies much more before landfall. Agreed, was just making a point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted September 4, 2018 Share Posted September 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, hlcater said: Honestly doubting we see a hurricane out of this. If you look at velocity, there is no inner core wind maxima whatsoever and the storm is still lopsided to the north and east. Maybe even slightly decoupled in this direction as well? I don't think it intensifies much more before landfall. Thanks for information, lol likely giving up ghost on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted September 4, 2018 Share Posted September 4, 2018 I’m in Fort Walton Beach at work, getting ready to head home to Navarre in about an hour. It’s been raining for about 3hrs with a 15-20 mph wind, gusts to around 30 so far. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 4, 2018 Share Posted September 4, 2018 Gordon has struggled to establish a good surface vortex. Even though it has remained closed and evident at 850-700mb, it's been very weak on the southern side of the LLC from recon data. Stong convergence is occuring right now out of the SSE however and Gordon has good lift into the MLC which is well-established on radar. Nice MCS convection is also represented on satellite above this feature. Given time, this probably would have been a hurricane, and there is a slight chance this can still occur before landfall. I agree this is unlikely though. It's running out of time. However, in place of the strong NE core band, there may very well be some hurricane force gusts in there. Somebody is going to get more than a breezy rain storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 4, 2018 Share Posted September 4, 2018 Best wind speeds/gusts Buoy 42039: 40mph gusts Buoy 42012 (Orange beach): 40 mph gusts Buoy 42040: 27 mph gusts Pensacola Naval air station (Airport KNPA): 36 mph gusts Destin Airport: 33 mph Orange Beach/Gulf Shores: 23 mph gusts wave heights peaked at 17 ft at Buoy 42039 This is not really super amazing, with only 40 mph gusts. The convective core is already close to Gulf Shores and Pensacola. How many more hours can it go before landfall? Maybe 6 or 7 hours. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted September 4, 2018 Share Posted September 4, 2018 Yea, looking less impactful by the minute, the observation tells the tale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 4, 2018 Share Posted September 4, 2018 Latest super-res reflectivity... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted September 4, 2018 Share Posted September 4, 2018 Getting our worst weather currently with sustained wind of 30mph with gusts of 45mph here at the house. Went to the beach about an hour ago and took some vid & pics. . 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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