CIK62 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 California not getting any precipitation relief for about 8 more days to the northern part of the state, and 10 days to the southern sectors. Then I suppose some people will be worrying about mudslides instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 18 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Such snowfall is uncommon at this time of year. If the City can get an inch, that would be quite special given the time of season. Didn’t want to derail the storm thread. The highest snow total I’ve witnessed in November was 5 inches from the snowstorm that followed a week after Sandy. I believe Central Park measured around the same and areas along coastal NJ received nearly a foot. With how rare November snowfall is it's interesting to think of how abnormal, meteorologically, things were in that brief period of time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 11 minutes ago, Nibor said: Didn’t want to derail the storm thread. The highest snow total I’ve witnessed in November was 5 inches from the snowstorm that followed a week after Sandy. I believe Central Park measured around the same and areas along coastal NJ received nearly a foot. With how rare November snowfall is it's interesting to think of how abnormal, meteorologically, things were in that brief period of time. Yes. That was an amazing storm. Central Park picked up 4.7" and Newark received 6.2". Here's a photo from near where I live: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Yes. That was an amazing storm. Central Park picked up 4.7" and Newark received 6.2". Here's a photo from near where I live: That was a very surreal system with the snowy landscape paired against the Sandy devastation. I had like 7". 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 5 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: That was a very surreal system with the snowy landscape paired against the Sandy devastation. I had like 7". That describes it very well. It was an amazing spectacle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 Congrats Houston https://spacecityweather.com/ This is quite an early cold spell for Houston. The trace of sleet and snow recorded at Bush Intercontinental Airport on Tuesday broke the record for earliest observed snow at the site, previously set on Nov. 23, 1979. Houston’s Hobby Airport also recorded its earliest trace of freezing precipitation. And although this morning’s freeze for parts of Houston did not set any records, this first freeze has come three to four weeks earlier than normal. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 when the AO NAO went negative in certain great winters in November it repeated the negatives into December and beyond in some cases... the nine years had a stronger block in December...2010 had a stronger -ao but a lesser - nao...2002 had a stronger -nao but a lesser -nao in December...some years with blocking didn't pan out...the forecast for the nao/ao is for both to get very negative...this raises the chances for a great December... year.....AO and dates..........NAO and dates............... 2010...-4.058...11/26...........-2.696...11/30 2010...-5.265...12/18...........-1.544...12/14 2009...-0.620...11/29...........-0.946...11/15 2009...-5.821...12/21...........-2.111...12/14 2002...-3.455...11/24............-1.025...11/23 2002...-2.757...12/30............-1.585...12/10 2000...-3.114...11/05............-1.412...11/06 2000...-4.688...12/29............-1.658...12/07 1995...-1.953...11/15............-1.751...11/16 1995...-4.343...12/19............-1.846...12/07 1977...-2.245...11/20...........-0.862...11/15 1977...-3.071...12/07............-2.132...12/07 1976...-2.188...11/21............-1.266...11/21 1976...-5.287...12/30............-2.220...12/23 1968...-4.201...11/15............-1.383...11/06 1968...-4.547...12/29............-1.697...12/06 1963...-2.770...11/11............-2.471...11/09 1963...-4.470...12/20............-2.397...12/14 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 https://www.wsj.com/articles/natural-gas-is-getting-more-expensive-and-so-could-heating-bills-1542196800?mod=e2fb tl;dr: Natural Gas Is Getting More Expensive, and So Could Heating Bills Investors are bracing for continued gains in natural-gas prices this winter—a development that could pinch U.S. consumers who use the fuel for home heating. The rapid surge has rattled investors and traders, as the market goes into the winter heating season with less supplies in storage than any other year since 2005. Natural-gas prices have climbed more than 50% this year-- with most of that happening since last month-- while crude oil has fallen more than 20% from its October peak. That should lead to higher heating bills this winter, particularly if temperatures are colder than predicted. The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects natural-gas heating bills to rise by 5% compared with last year on higher prices. If the winter is 10% colder than forecasts, the government agency predicts that natural-gas costs will rise by 16%. Last winter, a severe storm drove natural-gas futures above $3/mmBtu. The Northeast, which lacks the pipelines needed to move natural gas, experienced even sharper price swings, with regional prices surging as high as $175/mmBtu. “The cold to this extent was not really on anyone’s radar. Now forecasters are scrambling,” said Jacob Meisel, chief weather analyst at Bespoke Weather Services. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 remember a few weeks ago when the dewpoint was 70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 2 hours ago, forkyfork said: remember a few weeks ago when the dewpoint was 70 I believe the 1 degree dewpoint at Boston is a new record low for November 14th. BOSTON MOCLDY 34 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 6 minutes ago, bluewave said: I believe the 1 degree dewpoint at Boston is a new record low for November 14th. BOSTON MOCLDY 34 1 the swing has to be a record 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 12 hours ago, North and West said: https://www.wsj.com/articles/natural-gas-is-getting-more-expensive-and-so-could-heating-bills-1542196800?mod=e2fb tl;dr: Natural Gas Is Getting More Expensive, and So Could Heating Bills Investors are bracing for continued gains in natural-gas prices this winter—a development that could pinch U.S. consumers who use the fuel for home heating. The rapid surge has rattled investors and traders, as the market goes into the winter heating season with less supplies in storage than any other year since 2005. Natural-gas prices have climbed more than 50% this year-- with most of that happening since last month-- while crude oil has fallen more than 20% from its October peak. That should lead to higher heating bills this winter, particularly if temperatures are colder than predicted. The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects natural-gas heating bills to rise by 5% compared with last year on higher prices. If the winter is 10% colder than forecasts, the government agency predicts that natural-gas costs will rise by 16%. Last winter, a severe storm drove natural-gas futures above $3/mmBtu. The Northeast, which lacks the pipelines needed to move natural gas, experienced even sharper price swings, with regional prices surging as high as $175/mmBtu. “The cold to this extent was not really on anyone’s radar. Now forecasters are scrambling,” said Jacob Meisel, chief weather analyst at Bespoke Weather Services. Solar keeps looking better and better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 19 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: That describes it very well. It was an amazing spectacle. Remember it well! 8-10 inches here in western long island with more trees coming down and treacherous driving a week after Sandy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 16 hours ago, bluewave said: Congrats Houston https://spacecityweather.com/ This is quite an early cold spell for Houston. The trace of sleet and snow recorded at Bush Intercontinental Airport on Tuesday broke the record for earliest observed snow at the site, previously set on Nov. 23, 1979. Houston’s Hobby Airport also recorded its earliest trace of freezing precipitation. And although this morning’s freeze for parts of Houston did not set any records, this first freeze has come three to four weeks earlier than normal. It reminds me of December 2004 I think it was when deep south Texas had a white Christmas- maybe they will see that again? 1979 had a really cold start, I think DC had an October snow event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 15 hours ago, uncle W said: when the AO NAO went negative in certain great winters in November it repeated the negatives into December and beyond in some cases... the nine years had a stronger block in December...2010 had a stronger -ao but a lesser - nao...2002 had a stronger -nao but a lesser -nao in December...some years with blocking didn't pan out...the forecast for the nao/ao is for both to get very negative...this raises the chances for a great December... year.....AO and dates..........NAO and dates............... 2010...-4.058...11/26...........-2.696...11/30 2010...-5.265...12/18...........-1.544...12/14 2009...-0.620...11/29...........-0.946...11/15 2009...-5.821...12/21...........-2.111...12/14 2002...-3.455...11/24............-1.025...11/23 2002...-2.757...12/30............-1.585...12/10 2000...-3.114...11/05............-1.412...11/06 2000...-4.688...12/29............-1.658...12/07 1995...-1.953...11/15............-1.751...11/16 1995...-4.343...12/19............-1.846...12/07 1977...-2.245...11/20...........-0.862...11/15 1977...-3.071...12/07............-2.132...12/07 1976...-2.188...11/21............-1.266...11/21 1976...-5.287...12/30............-2.220...12/23 1968...-4.201...11/15............-1.383...11/06 1968...-4.547...12/29............-1.697...12/06 1963...-2.770...11/11............-2.471...11/09 1963...-4.470...12/20............-2.397...12/14 6 out of 9 historic snowfall winters, not bad at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 2 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Solar keeps looking better and better. I wish my property was right for solar power. The house and ground faces generally east and all of the south and west sides are lined with 60-75 foot trees on the neighbors sides so at prime time I get very little sun once the trees are leafed out. I could pull a few hours early in the day but I don't think that would be enough to justify the cost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 After today, PWAT values stay BN for next 2 weeks, while Temps. also stay, mostly BN. The warmup which was delayed from late Nov., will bore us the first week of Dec. (worst in the upper Midwest). Second and third week of Dec. will have a near certitude of multiple repeats of today's event, but with a different result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 You say that with such certainty. The LR forecasts havent exactly been spot on over last 30 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Guys/Gals: One thread for disco/obs or separate threads? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 8 minutes ago, Rjay said: Guys/Gals: One thread for disco/obs or separate threads? With short threads i dont think theres a need for separate threads. If its a long tracked system im ok with 2 threads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, BxEngine said: With short threads i dont think theres a need for separate threads. If its a long tracked system im ok with 2 threads I like the idea of one thread. But I'll leave it up to the members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Less is more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 7 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said: Less is more Thanks for giving us your go to pick up line 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 1 minute ago, BxEngine said: Thanks for giving us your go to pick up line You'd be surprised how successful it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 11 hours ago, gravitylover said: I wish my property was right for solar power. The house and ground faces generally east and all of the south and west sides are lined with 60-75 foot trees on the neighbors sides so at prime time I get very little sun once the trees are leafed out. I could pull a few hours early in the day but I don't think that would be enough to justify the cost. ugh and with all this rain thats been hitting us in our new climate pattern it feels like we get sun like maybe one day out of every week 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 another climate change storm in progress 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 If it wasn't for climate change we'ed have no more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Already surpassed winters of 97-98, 01-02 and 11-12 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Looks like we will get our warm up after Thanksgiving. It probably won't be very mild but we'll definitely see more 50s or better before December. The -NAO is going to have to wait until the Pacific turns more favorable before it has an impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: another climate change storm in progress when are they going to fix the models to factor in climate change and the new climate we are now in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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