CIK62 Posted September 27, 2018 Share Posted September 27, 2018 The RWTT now runs to Christmas and has the next 90 days at a good +3degs. for the whole country , less the Pacific NW, which is normal. The only BN period around here is week 2 of Nov. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 27, 2018 Share Posted September 27, 2018 33rd anniversary of Hurricane Gloria. We really got lucky that one struck so close to low tide. ftp://ftp.library.noaa.gov/noaa_documents.lib/NWS/NWS_ER/TM_NWS_ER_70.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted September 28, 2018 Share Posted September 28, 2018 More talk of storm surge barriers for NYC and environs: https://ny.curbed.com/2018/9/27/17908080/new-york-storm-surge-barrier-usace-climate-change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 3, 2018 Share Posted October 3, 2018 since nino decembers run warm without a -ao/-nao this one will torch hard 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted October 3, 2018 Share Posted October 3, 2018 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: since nino decembers run warm without a -ao/-nao this one will torch hard I hope so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 3, 2018 Share Posted October 3, 2018 Tomorrow's THK was predicted to be 80m lower, two weeks ago on this output, so who knows if modest drop off shown for two weeks from now will occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 3, 2018 Share Posted October 3, 2018 8 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said: I hope so March and April are now winter months 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted October 3, 2018 Share Posted October 3, 2018 9 minutes ago, Snow88 said: March and April are now winter months Easter forcast: Chance of snow melting on arrival. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 3, 2018 Share Posted October 3, 2018 https://weather.com/amp/storms/winter/news/2018-10-03-calgary-alberta-canada-snow-record-october.html?__ Calgary Just Had Its Snowiest Day in More Than Three Decades and Broke an October Snowfall Record Yesterday was #Calgary's 7th snowiest day since records began in 1881.pic.twitter.com/cR93q4D7nM 9:11 AM - 3 Oct 2018 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 3, 2018 Share Posted October 3, 2018 1 hour ago, 495weatherguy said: I hope so if it's weak and west/basinwide then we'll get buried in feb. it's the 2010's 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted October 3, 2018 Share Posted October 3, 2018 51 minutes ago, bluewave said: https://weather.com/amp/storms/winter/news/2018-10-03-calgary-alberta-canada-snow-record-october.html?__ Calgary Just Had Its Snowiest Day in More Than Three Decades and Broke an October Snowfall Record Yesterday was #Calgary's 7th snowiest day since records began in 1881.pic.twitter.com/cR93q4D7nM 9:11 AM - 3 Oct 2018 And only 12.9” fell. I never would’ve suspected that their records would pale in comparison to ours, as cold as it is there. Calgary is about as cold as Daytona Beach is warm, in relation to our climate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted October 4, 2018 Share Posted October 4, 2018 52 minutes ago, forkyfork said: if it's weak and west/basinwide then we'll get buried in feb. it's the 2010's I hope not-would you think it can be a longer period of time than the month of February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted October 4, 2018 Share Posted October 4, 2018 4 hours ago, Cfa said: And only 12.9” fell. I never would’ve suspected that their records would pale in comparison to ours, as cold as it is there. Calgary is about as cold as Daytona Beach is warm, in relation to our climate. No ocean or Great Lake to tap into for moisture. Their cold is a ‘dry’ cold lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 4, 2018 Share Posted October 4, 2018 5 hours ago, forkyfork said: if it's weak and west/basinwide then we'll get buried in feb. it's the 2010's It wouldn't shock me to see another 20"+ snowstorm or two in the region. Massive fuel source with the warm Ssts off the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 4, 2018 Share Posted October 4, 2018 7 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: It wouldn't shock me to see another 20"+ snowstorm or two in the region. Massive fuel source with the warm Ssts off the east coast. It's going to be a tough year I think for this sub-forum with the mean track closer to the coast. Going to come down to good timing of storm systems in conjunction with fresh cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 4, 2018 Share Posted October 4, 2018 13 hours ago, Cfa said: And only 12.9” fell. I never would’ve suspected that their records would pale in comparison to ours, as cold as it is there. Calgary is about as cold as Daytona Beach is warm, in relation to our climate. September was actually the snowiest on record for North America. All the cold in the Northern Hemisphere was focused in Canada due to the record blocking near Alaska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 4, 2018 Share Posted October 4, 2018 20 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: It's going to be a tough year I think for this sub-forum with the mean track closer to the coast. Going to come down to good timing of storm systems in conjunction with fresh cold air. Meanwhile other people are saying how this will be a great winter for the mid atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 4, 2018 Share Posted October 4, 2018 16 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Meanwhile other people are saying how this will be a great winter for the mid atlantic It could be a great Winter for the mid-atlantic if the blocking is strong enough, but people tend to forget how much further West they are than us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 4, 2018 Share Posted October 4, 2018 49 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: It's going to be a tough year I think for this sub-forum with the mean track closer to the coast. Going to come down to good timing of storm systems in conjunction with fresh cold air. Not necessarily, I could see a few 14/15 esque systems that were modeled to go OTS only to trend closer and hit us hard. All of the signs I've seen were really positive for us moving forward. Additionally the cold air appears to be on our side of the globe. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LAVistaNY Posted October 4, 2018 Share Posted October 4, 2018 I remember this storm well. We woke up to 6 inches of snow here in Westchester next to Ridgefield CT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 5, 2018 Share Posted October 5, 2018 LR model test coming. EURO WEEKLIES have been, and still are BN in second half of Oct. GEFS looks similar. GEPS brief cool down then a gentle trough and near normal. The RWTT does not budge from AN till second week of Nov., just when the EURO is warming again. The RWTT does not flip around and seems more stable than the others over time, and thus could be missing a brief break that means nothing long term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 5, 2018 Share Posted October 5, 2018 2018 Tornadoes Oklahoma: 13 PA: 13 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 5, 2018 Share Posted October 5, 2018 28 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: 2018 Tornadoes Oklahoma: 13 PA: 13 I believe the 13 confirmed tornadoes in PA the other day brings the annual count to 30 for 2018. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/states.php?month=00&year=2018&state=PA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 5, 2018 Share Posted October 5, 2018 18 minutes ago, bluewave said: I believe the 13 confirmed tornadoes in PA the other day brings the annual count to 30 for 2018. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/states.php?month=00&year=2018&state=PA Ah yes I misread. It was just Tuesday's count which is even more impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 5, 2018 Share Posted October 5, 2018 24 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Ah yes I misread. It was just Tuesday's count which is even more impressive. Impressive year in PA for out of season tornadoes. https://weather.com/news/news/2018-02-16-uniontown-pennsylvania-storm-damage Powerful storms rolled through southwestern Pennsylvania Thursday evening, leaving widespread damage in at least one town from a confirmed tornado. National Weather Service meteorologists surveyed the damage left behind in Uniontown, Pennsylvania, after a severe storm hit the town at about 6:40 p.m. EST. Debris was widespread in the areas hit hardest, with trees and power lines downed and several homes severely damaged, according to CBS Pittsburgh. A senior living complex lost nearly half its roof, although the storm's path just missed Laurel Highlands High School, according to the NWS. Following the storm survey, the NWS determined an EF1 tornado was in progress Thursday evening, with maximum winds of 105 mph. It was the first confirmed February tornado in southwestern Pennsylvania since records began in 1950. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 You know it’s been warm when the Crape Myrtles still have flowers on them, albeit not as much as they have in the summer. It’s difficult to imagine them being bare in a little over a month’s time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 The last hurricane to hit the Panhandle was Opal. We all know how that following winter was . JB "Years with tropical cyclones coming up into the gulf in October and having impact are signal for cold December in many cases. Why? MJO phases that help with tropical cyclones can show up again in December and they are cold phases for US at that time of the year " 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 I predict someone's imminent return now that nino 1.2 isnt as cool... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted October 8, 2018 Share Posted October 8, 2018 9 hours ago, Snow88 said: The last hurricane to hit the Panhandle was Opal. We all know how that following winter was . JB "Years with tropical cyclones coming up into the gulf in October and having impact are signal for cold December in many cases. Why? MJO phases that help with tropical cyclones can show up again in December and they are cold phases for US at that time of the year " Except for, y'know... Earl '98, Dennis '05, Hermine '16, and maybe a couple I'm forgetting about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 9, 2018 Share Posted October 9, 2018 On 10/7/2018 at 10:18 AM, Cfa said: You know it’s been warm when the Crape Myrtles still have flowers on them, albeit not as much as they have in the summer. It’s difficult to imagine them being bare in a little over a month’s time. My Crepe Myrtle died last winter. That cold snap where we hit -4 killed it. Local nursery told me that many died on the island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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