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George BM

September Discobs Thread

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
414 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2018

The National Weather Service in Wakefield has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  The City of Richmond in central Virginia...
  North central Chesterfield County in central Virginia...
  Northwestern Henrico County in central Virginia...
  Southeastern Hanover County in central Virginia...

* Until 445 PM EDT.

* At 412 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located over Virginia Union University, moving northeast at 25
  mph. This storm has a history of producing damaging tornadoes. A
  second circulation has developed near Bon Air as well.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
  Highland Springs around 420 PM EDT.
  East Highland Park and Glen Allen around 425 PM EDT.
  Mechanicsville around 430 PM EDT.
  Hanover and Studley around 445 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Solomons Store, Chamberlayne, Atlee, Ashcake, Greendale, Hanover
Airport, Dumbarton, Montrose and Longdale.

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TW for Richmond again

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
444 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2018

The National Weather Service in Wakefield has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  The City of Richmond in central Virginia...
  North central Chesterfield County in central Virginia...
  Southeastern Goochland County in central Virginia...
  Northwestern Henrico County in central Virginia...
  Central Hanover County in central Virginia...
  East central Powhatan County in central Virginia...

* Until 515 PM EDT.

* At 443 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located near Manakin, or near Bon Air, moving northeast at 35
  mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
  Bon Air, University Of Richmond and Tuckahoe around 455 PM EDT.
  Wyndham around 500 PM EDT.
  Richmond, Laurel and Lakeside around 505 PM EDT.
  Mechanicsville, Glen Allen and East Highland Park around 510 PM
  EDT.
  Ashland, Randolph Macon College, Hanover and Studley around 515 PM
  EDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Hanover Airport, Gum Tree, Midlothian, Elmont, Short Pump, Longdale,
Solomons Store, Chamberlayne, Atlee and Ashcake.

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2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Need to keep an eye on that cell coming up on the east side of 95 to the DC area.

It definitely looks like it's trying to spin something up.

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Wow..,

I made it out of NC and was driving through some of those early cells this afternoon. Some of the worst driving conditions I’ve ever seen. These things spin up fast. Keep your head on a swivel and stay safe.

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Looking at the NAM nest and HRRR, while the greatest coverage of storms will be over the next few hours, a few more could be around later during the night.   Decent shear profiles will remain in place, and instability won't drop off much in this air mass.    Not sure we can rule out an isolated supercell overnight.

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10 minutes ago, high risk said:

Looking at the NAM nest and HRRR, while the greatest coverage of storms will be over the next few hours, a few more could be around later during the night.   Decent shear profiles will remain in place, and instability won't drop off much in this air mass.    Not sure we can rule out an isolated supercell overnight.

Shear profiles were favorable when I checked the 12z and 18z NAM soundings till around or just after 06z TUES... so I assume that should be the time when the threat for a tornado should diminish

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15 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

And people are just driving by like it's no big deal lol

I was one of them as it was only few mins from my house. I’m used to the typical warning and everyone stops what doing to shelter, however today was so many warnings in few hours you just kind of became numb to it

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2 minutes ago, Rvarookie said:

I was one of them as it was only few mins from my house. I’m used to the typical warning and everyone stops what doing to shelter, however today was so many warnings in few hours you just kind of became numb to it

If anything that should have been a reason to take them more seriously than normal.

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I’m a total severe amateur but on the base velocity it looks like an area of green/red coupled together just moved through NW dc and is now up by silver spring. 

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3 minutes ago, yoda said:

I don't doubt UMD... but I don't see any TW up?

I had the same thought. Didn't get any tw alerts from any other source. 

 

Edit: thanks, high risk. It's currently lightly raining and I'm still in college park. Not sure why they do things this way.

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ah geez.   UMD has a private company issue tornado warnings for their campus, independent of NWS warnings.    

https://www.nbcwashington.com/news/local/UMD-Alerts-Students-to-Tornado-That-Never-Came-131854018.html

That must be what's happening again today.    That couplet that's near Silver Spring now was never really on a path towards campus.

 

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1 minute ago, high risk said:

ah geez.   UMD has a private company issue tornado warnings for their campus, independent of NWS warnings.    

https://www.nbcwashington.com/news/local/UMD-Alerts-Students-to-Tornado-That-Never-Came-131854018.html

That must be what's happening again today.    That couplet that's near Silver Spring now was never really on a path towards campus.

 

:facepalm:

That's sad that they would rather use Failuweather than the NWS... but I don't want to cause an argument over that in this thread. 

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Only 0.30" here today.  Well under the forecasted amounts.  Guess I should be thankful, since some roads still have water flowing across them from last week's flooding.  But I am a weenie, so not happy about the "bust."

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