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September Discobs Thread


George BM
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TW for Richmond again

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
444 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2018

The National Weather Service in Wakefield has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  The City of Richmond in central Virginia...
  North central Chesterfield County in central Virginia...
  Southeastern Goochland County in central Virginia...
  Northwestern Henrico County in central Virginia...
  Central Hanover County in central Virginia...
  East central Powhatan County in central Virginia...

* Until 515 PM EDT.

* At 443 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located near Manakin, or near Bon Air, moving northeast at 35
  mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
  Bon Air, University Of Richmond and Tuckahoe around 455 PM EDT.
  Wyndham around 500 PM EDT.
  Richmond, Laurel and Lakeside around 505 PM EDT.
  Mechanicsville, Glen Allen and East Highland Park around 510 PM
  EDT.
  Ashland, Randolph Macon College, Hanover and Studley around 515 PM
  EDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Hanover Airport, Gum Tree, Midlothian, Elmont, Short Pump, Longdale,
Solomons Store, Chamberlayne, Atlee and Ashcake.
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Looking at the NAM nest and HRRR, while the greatest coverage of storms will be over the next few hours, a few more could be around later during the night.   Decent shear profiles will remain in place, and instability won't drop off much in this air mass.    Not sure we can rule out an isolated supercell overnight.

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10 minutes ago, high risk said:

Looking at the NAM nest and HRRR, while the greatest coverage of storms will be over the next few hours, a few more could be around later during the night.   Decent shear profiles will remain in place, and instability won't drop off much in this air mass.    Not sure we can rule out an isolated supercell overnight.

Shear profiles were favorable when I checked the 12z and 18z NAM soundings till around or just after 06z TUES... so I assume that should be the time when the threat for a tornado should diminish

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15 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

And people are just driving by like it's no big deal lol

I was one of them as it was only few mins from my house. I’m used to the typical warning and everyone stops what doing to shelter, however today was so many warnings in few hours you just kind of became numb to it

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2 minutes ago, Rvarookie said:

I was one of them as it was only few mins from my house. I’m used to the typical warning and everyone stops what doing to shelter, however today was so many warnings in few hours you just kind of became numb to it

If anything that should have been a reason to take them more seriously than normal.

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ah geez.   UMD has a private company issue tornado warnings for their campus, independent of NWS warnings.    

https://www.nbcwashington.com/news/local/UMD-Alerts-Students-to-Tornado-That-Never-Came-131854018.html

That must be what's happening again today.    That couplet that's near Silver Spring now was never really on a path towards campus.

 

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1 minute ago, high risk said:

ah geez.   UMD has a private company issue tornado warnings for their campus, independent of NWS warnings.    

https://www.nbcwashington.com/news/local/UMD-Alerts-Students-to-Tornado-That-Never-Came-131854018.html

That must be what's happening again today.    That couplet that's near Silver Spring now was never really on a path towards campus.

 

:facepalm:

That's sad that they would rather use Failuweather than the NWS... but I don't want to cause an argument over that in this thread. 

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6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Every time the long range progs show some signs of real fall air getting here, it gets pushed to the right inevitably.  The summer that won't end.  

Maybe there will be no real Fall this year, but a continuation of AN temps into Nov. and  then a sudden turn to early winter weather by Thanksgiving - I could wish right :-)

Maybe we pull the rubberband as far as it can go and then we snap back and head in the other direction. 

Was thinking about Fall into Winter -

Is it true that an El Nino fall normally brings on a early to start to winter threats like 02-03, 09-10 , etc or is it random, any ideas ?   

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