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Fall Banter, Observation and General Discussion 2018


CapturedNature
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1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

ughhh it's not that. I'm using an incorrect equation or method to find e. The book gives e = es - Ap(T-Tw) but I think it's full of poop. 

haha...completed the whole chart!!! only took 2.5 pages of calculations. Hopefully it's all right but numbers make sense :thumbsup: 

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47 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

WTF is the GFS doing now? Anybody else noticing lately that it is doing these weird almost gravity wave induced pressure fields affecting srfc winds and precip? That looks unrealistic as modeled. Sure they can happen, but look at the winds and QPF on the 6z GFS. 

Cue Tip, in 3...2...1...

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

WTF is the GFS doing now? Anybody else noticing lately that it is doing these weird almost gravity wave induced pressure fields affecting srfc winds and precip? That looks unrealistic as modeled. Sure they can happen, but look at the winds and QPF on the 6z GFS. 

are you talking about the structure of the QPF or total QPF? 

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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The structure of it. The winds and QPF distribution on the 3 and 6 hr panels shows several upward/downward vertical motion areas that seem exaggerated. 

Ahhh...I see exactly what you're talking about. 

Could it be tied with the 700mb VV? Looking at 700mb VV you have almost a similar type of configuration. Or would that be tied into what you were saying with gravity wave induced pressure fields?

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4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Ahhh...I see exactly what you're talking about. 

Could it be tied with the 700mb VV? Looking at 700mb VV you have almost a similar type of configuration. Or would that be tied into what you were saying with gravity wave induced pressure fields?

Look at that pressure fields. You can see some funny looking mesoscale ridges and troughs within the area of low pressure. Just seems bizarre and exaggerated to me. 

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Look at that pressure fields. You can see some funny looking mesoscale ridges and troughs within the area of low pressure. Just seems bizarre and exaggerated to me. 

Yeah that does seem rather odd...it's striking too how obvious that is. Great catch though picking that out. Very curious now as to the cause of this within the model. Even tracing this back to when it's off the mid-Atlantic coast there are signs of these features developing but they become more exaggerated as the system progresses northward. Is it possible it's some sort of interaction with the high to the north? But it's almost like whatever is used within the algorithm for SLP/QPF didn't like do any smoothing of the data.

I also love how this run pulls the H7 low quite west lol. Lots of funky things this run

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14 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's rare though in something as complex as meteorology....and your last point certainly doesn't help either.

 

It is what it is. The convo/discussion went downhill, but the info flows in faster than it used to. If you are skilled enough on here to filter out the 80% crud that gets posted, then you'll be just fine.

This, Live above the noise.

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13 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Ha, I still use a laptop for photography and I think most would agree... to fully Weenie out over a winter storm it's better on a computer or laptop.  Model data, radars, 10 browser tabs open... it just isn't the same on the small screen.  Laptop rising while watching Jim Cantore live coverage on TWC during a snow blitz...

There's still a time and a place for breaking out the old laptop or desktop in weather.

I prefer a 22" monitor over a 4.5" phone screen...............lol

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Tornado Warning

Tornado Warning
MAC005-021-RIC007-232000-
/O.NEW.KBOX.TO.W.0012.181023T1934Z-181023T2000Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
334 PM EDT TUE OCT 23 2018

The National Weather Service in Boston/Norton has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Southwestern Norfolk County in eastern Massachusetts...
  West central Bristol County in southeastern Massachusetts...
  East central Providence County in Rhode Island...

* Until 400 PM EDT.

* At 334 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located over North Providence, moving northeast at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
  East Providence and Central Falls around 350 PM EDT.
  Pawtucket around 355 PM EDT.
  Cumberland, North Attleborough, Attleboro, Seekonk, Rehoboth and
  Plainville around 400 PM EDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4185 7148 4189 7149 4200 7136 4185 7123
TIME...MOT...LOC 1934Z 240DEG 15KT 4187 7145

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

$$

Sipprell
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