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Rtd208

E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2018 OBS Thread

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4 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Quiet in here. Arctic blast for Thanksgiving with sub freezing high temps should make it one to remember. Lows Thursday night low teens. Friday morning gonna be bitterly cold for those early Black Friday shoppers. 

Pattern looks ok going forward but nothing earth shattering. Maybe we can sneak a shortwave under us and score some light snows late Nov early Dec. Nice storms popping up in the periods I mentioned previously but the first looks warm relatively speaking. Longer range weaken the N Atl and NAO rigging and try to shift the trof out west with flat ringing in the East. Would fit the typical December Nino flip but signals are mixed. I am hearing this Nino is 'different' so I'm not exactly sure what that equates to. Guess we will see.

Have a nice Thanksgiving everyone!

Steve....for those that like winter weather and multiple storm chances this pattern over the next month could not be much better...of course this does not mean we get 20" of snow....as we could easily see a storm or two go up west of the apps and a snow to zr to rn event....but me thinks we will see at least 5 chances of wintry precipitation between now and Christmas. Plenty of tracking ahead!

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1 hour ago, ChescoPaWxman said:

Steve....for those that like winter weather and multiple storm chances this pattern over the next month could not be much better...of course this does not mean we get 20" of snow....as we could easily see a storm or two go up west of the apps and a snow to zr to rn event....but me thinks we will see at least 5 chances of wintry precipitation between now and Christmas. Plenty of tracking ahead!

Paul there is always a chance. I need to see actual production from the atmosphere to satisfy my snow appetite.

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As of 11:36 pm local time we are down to 31.0 degrees here in East Nantmeal Township. With the fact that the high temperature for today will be occurring at 12:01 am we have already recorded a tie for the  2nd coldest maximum temperature for Thanksgiving Day here in the County. If we drop another 0.1 degrees over the next 25 minutes... this year would sit alone as the 2nd coldest maximum Thanksgiving Day Temp. The only colder Thanksgiving Day in the last 125 years was back in 1996 when we could only top out at 27.0 for the high temp.

We will also have a great chance at a top 5 coldest minimum temperature <19.9 for Thanksgiving Day likely before sunrise tomorrow with an outside chance we eclipse the all-time Thanksgiving Day minimum of 14.0 set back in 1993 by potentially midnight tomorrow night. Much of the day tomorrow will feature temps in the low to mid-20's

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My high at midnight was 32 and my low so far this morning was 21 and dews have been in the single digits... I know it will drop into the teens for sure tonight.  Currently 23 and breezy, and not a cloud in the sky.  Did see the big moon this morning (will officially be full tomorrow).

Hope everyone has a happy Thanksgiving! :drunk:

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1 hour ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

My high at midnight was 32 and my low so far this morning was 21 and dews have been in the single digits... I know it will drop into the teens for sure tonight.  Currently 23 and breezy, and not a cloud in the sky.  Did see the big moon this morning (will officially be full tomorrow).

Hope everyone has a happy Thanksgiving! :drunk:

Thanks, you too! Did not see the moon itself last night, but it was sure lighting things up around 3 am. Currently 24F here.

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This is such a volatile pattern coming up. I wouldn't take any OP runs at face value until under 144 hours. There's going to be many chances for snow to start December but it's almost a guarantee that we'll strike out on most. This could be a December 2010 type pattern where we're waiting and waiting and then boom the big one shows up in the medium to short range.

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We did drop to 17.6 at 11:59pm last evening moving this Thanksgiving to the 3rd coldest max temp behind only 1903 and 1947. Also yesterday's 30.2 max temp set a new record low max for the date surpassing the 31.0 max temp set back in 1989.  Today's AM Low  of 13.8 was a couple degrees short of the record low for today which was 11.0 in 1989. We have a chance to set another record low max for the date today which is also 31.0 set back in 1989.

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Ended up with a low this morning of 15 (14.5).  The wind never went completely calm for an extended period overnight as there were some puffs on and off through the night until earlier this morning.  Still, that arctic high meant some business this early in the season!

Currently a sunny and cloudless 24, with temps steadily creeping up.

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Hope everyone had a great Turkey day. Got down to 15 F last night.. 

 I paid the piper for adventuring in the snow without my winter gear last Thursday. Have had the Flu since sunday...awful stuff but finally have gotten around to catching up on the upcoming period.  As Newman posted above, the upcoming pattern does look very volitile. Great word for this pattern. I think we'll likely be at or even slightly below normal, but the storm track does not look favorable at all for this period. I see many snow or ice to rain events for 95 for the first half of december(which is good for around here, we can have decembers with no even borderline events). This looks like a good pattern for LV though imo. Maybe not snow, but with the amount of cold air near by and already in place, even warm systems will have a chance at frozen. I think the 222 corridor N and W may do well the first half of december.

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51 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Hope everyone had a great Turkey day. Got down to 15 F last night.. 

 I paid the piper for adventuring in the snow without my winter gear last Thursday. Have had the Flu since sunday...awful stuff but finally have gotten around to catching up on the upcoming period.  As Newman posted above, the upcoming pattern does look very volitile. Great word for this pattern. I think we'll likely be at or even slightly below normal, but the storm track does not look favorable at all for this period. I see many snow or ice to rain events for 95 for the first half of december(which is good for around here, we can have decembers with no even borderline events). This looks like a good pattern for LV though imo. Maybe not snow, but with the amount of cold air near by and already in place, even warm systems will have a chance at frozen. I think the 222 corridor N and W may do well the first half of december.

Have a feeling we are going to be playing the LR tease game for a while on  guidance. Pattern and blocking was looking really good in the LR for a while but now we are seeing signs that the pattern will be short-lived and we *might* be headed into a typical Nino-ish December after the first few days. Unclear on this though as signals are mixed but if we go with history and decadal oscillation patterns one would tend to side with the -NAO transient look rolling over on itself with a possible trof setting up in the West and a flat ridge in response in the East. Again purely speculation but with the variance in the ens in the LR and how we are already seeing a backing off on some of the high lat blocking looks, leaning towards a pattern reversal as we move past very early Dec. Like I posted elsewhere tho and agree with Paul, chances will be there for a period and maybe even a surprise at small lead times but overall keep in mind it is still fall and we have been spoiled with bN temps and aN snowfall.....for now.

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from mt holly

 

Quote
Record low temperatures were set at Mount Pocono, Reading,
Allentown, Trenton and Wilmington this morning. Record reports
have been issued. Also, the low of -2 at Mount Pocono tied
their all time record low November temperature that was set
previously on November 26, 1938.

 

Anytime an all time monthly cold record falls in this day and age is pretty impressive...

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