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E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2018 OBS Thread


Rtd208
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18z NAM has the high a bit slower to scoot off the coast...looks a tad colder from 12z. should be a significant hit for the lehigh valley even with the sleet changeover. Much of 95 stays frozen as well. Even with 3:1 sleet ratios, would still be 2-3" for much of 95 over a 6 hour period. Would be a commute home from hell. Roads in NJ have been treated already in the capitol, didn't notice any treatment in lower bucks yet though. This solution was definitely a slight nod towards the euro imo especially with the low level cold. Snow to start also looks back in the picture after 12z looked like sleet even to start for much of 95. Hopefully the start of a cave in to the euro and not a hiccup.

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20 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Current temp 32 and overcast here but the dp is in the high teens/low 20s and there's virga overhead.

Trying to say this without sounding rude(not to you but to others who posted earlier) because it's an honest question, not me being a smart ass.. but I know that low dews doesn't always equal virga especially in these situations with a retreating high and a southerly flow, but with a fresh cold airmass and the dry air associated with that, I thought a few hours of virga was inevitable. Why was little to no virga expected by some here?

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7 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Trying to say this without sounding rude(not to you but to others who posted earlier) because it's an honest question, not me being a smart ass.. but I know that low dews doesn't always equal virga especially in these situations with a retreating high and a southerly flow, but with a fresh cold airmass and the dry air associated with that, I thought a few hours of virga was inevitable. Why was little to no virga expected by some here?

A bunch of years ago, I had downloaded Bufkit to compile and run (and it could pull data data points from NWS).  I'm not sure where one can get the soundings (used to have some old, now-dead bookmarks) but I think what is going on in the upper atmosphere is probably more significant here than the surface dews.

I am under what is probably more than "clutter"!

 

radar-zoom-11152018.png

radarscope-virga-nexrad-11152018.PNG

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Just now, Hurricane Agnes said:

A bunch of years ago, I had downloaded Bufkit to compile and run (and it could pull data data points from NWS).  I'm not sure where one can get the soundings (used to have some old, now-dead bookmarks) but I think what is going on in the upper atmosphere is probably more significant here than the surface dews.

I am under what is probably more than "clutter"!

 

radar-zoom-11152018.png

radarscope-virga-nexrad-11152018.PNG

Why is there such a difference between the composite radar and the nexrad in these events? When you look at the regional composite, it looks like we've been under light echoes the last few hours.

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5 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Why is there such a difference between the composite radar and the nexrad in these events? When you look at the regional composite, it looks like we've been under light echoes the last few hours.

I have been debating purchasing a GRLevel2 program to get a 3d view to get a better handle on what is happening overhead that might be distorting the radar.  I know sometimes the sleet signatures sortof screw up the radar presentation.

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2 hours ago, Newman said:

Way-out-there GEFS map showing the potential heading into December.

f384.thumb.png.88b43970e1bca9926a37c2fd797e14ee.png

PAC looks good, Arctic looks good, Atlantic is blah. The brief NAO tank that is being advertised for the last week in Nov is looking more and more transient with the Atl side rolling over on Itself as December begins with a progressive look in the East. Maybe we can time something right for a quick hitter during the period you posted? Or maybe we get an Archambault system last week of Nov as NAO flips from neg to positive? The cold air shouldn't be a major issue based on these progs. We could certainly have worse looks. First things first tho, I like the Nov 25-30 period for a threat. 

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51 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

PAC looks good, Arctic looks good, Atlantic is blah. The brief NAO tank that is being advertised for the last week in Nov is looking more and more transient with the Atl side rolling over on Itself as December begins with a progressive look in the East. Maybe we can time something right for a quick hitter during the period you posted? Or maybe we get an Archambault system last week of Nov as NAO flips from neg to positive? The cold air shouldn't be a major issue based on these progs. We could certainly have worse looks. First things first tho, I like the Nov 25-30 period for a threat. 

I agree that the first time period to watch is the 25-30th. The look is fairly progressive heading into December with the high latitude blocking suppressing everything, but the split flow pattern looks really good. At this time I think our biggest worry heading into December would be a SE or Mid-Atlantic snow storm rather than a storm that cuts. You can see the models the past recent runs have begun to step away from the cutter solutions because, well, basic physics! You can't cut a storm into a strong block as advertised. Verbatim, the last week of November and December as you mentioned could feature an Archambault event with a classic looking -NAO to a neutral/positive NAO. Good times ahead.

nao.sprd2.gif

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Starting to think the Nov 25-30 event is the stage setter for the early Dec (3rd-7th?) larger scale threat that is surfacing on LR guidance. It is noteworthy to see individual shortwaves and systems being depicted on some of the LR ensembles repeatedly.  Generally these features are smoothed out so this definitely merits some attention going forward.

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Quiet in here. Arctic blast for Thanksgiving with sub freezing high temps should make it one to remember. Lows Thursday night low teens. Friday morning gonna be bitterly cold for those early Black Friday shoppers. 

Pattern looks ok going forward but nothing earth shattering. Maybe we can sneak a shortwave under us and score some light snows late Nov early Dec. Nice storms popping up in the periods I mentioned previously but the first looks warm relatively speaking. Longer range weaken the N Atl and NAO rigging and try to shift the trof out west with flat ringing in the East. Would fit the typical December Nino flip but signals are mixed. I am hearing this Nino is 'different' so I'm not exactly sure what that equates to. Guess we will see.

Have a nice Thanksgiving everyone!

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44 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Quiet in here. Arctic blast for Thanksgiving with sub freezing high temps should make it one to remember. Lows Thursday night low teens. Friday morning gonna be bitterly cold for those early Black Friday shoppers. 

Pattern looks ok going forward but nothing earth shattering. Maybe we can sneak a shortwave under us and score some light snows late Nov early Dec. Nice storms popping up in the periods I mentioned previously but the first looks warm relatively speaking. Longer range weaken the N Atl and NAO rigging and try to shift the trof out west with flat ringing in the East. Would fit the typical December Nino flip but signals are mixed. I am hearing this Nino is 'different' so I'm not exactly sure what that equates to. Guess we will see.

Have a nice Thanksgiving everyone!

Thanks Ralph you too, and everyone. Prolly get the fireplace going tomorrow night!

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