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E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2018 OBS Thread


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As far as I know - Weather World is the Penn State University TV show based on their PSU meteorologists. Accuweather headquarters  is in State College,  but is totally independent of Weather World and has no overlap of the forecasters. My son has worked for both (now at Accuweather as an on air guy) and in his earlier years worked at Weather World. Other than being located in the same town and some of the Accuweather team being graduates of PSU there is no other relationship.  They each create their own forecast.

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13 minutes ago, Chief83 said:

As far as I know - Weather World is the Penn State University TV show based on their PSU meteorologists. Accuweather headquarters  is in State College,  but is totally independent of Weather World and has no overlap of the forecasters. My son has worked for both (now at Accuweather as an on air guy) and in his earlier years worked at Weather World. Other than being located in the same town and some of the Accuweather team being graduates of PSU there is no other relationship.  They each create their own forecast.

For that matter there is an NWS outpost there. State college is the forecast capitol of the USA! NWS says 1.75"-4" inches for Pottstown, they don't really say what type will be falling and this is how much of that type-- more of a "there will be many types and the total will be between this and this and the type changes will be then then and then" What about EPAWA or whatever they call themselves now? Wind picking up now sounds like its Force 3. 

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30 minutes ago, Chief83 said:

As far as I know - Weather World is the Penn State University TV show based on their PSU meteorologists. Accuweather headquarters  is in State College,  but is totally independent of Weather World and has no overlap of the forecasters. My son has worked for both (now at Accuweather as an on air guy) and in his earlier years worked at Weather World. Other than being located in the same town and some of the Accuweather team being graduates of PSU there is no other relationship.  They each create their own forecast.

Interesting always thought they were related maybe it was because of Joe Bastardi and Elliot Abrams working there? Also their forecast thinking often mirrored the accu guys. 

 

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This will add to the confusion- the euro holds it's ground for I95 N&W 4-6" Philly and 10-12" Qtown 

It drops me to 1"  

Another thing the Weather.us site seems too generous with potential amounts the ECM site map is around 30% lower numbers.

My early call is 2-3" Philly, 3-5" close N&W burbs, 5-8" northern sections and a brief start as snow with a coating out east here toward Bermuda. Lehigh Valley should do well.

 

 

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On 11/12/2018 at 1:57 PM, Newman said:

My forecast at the moment would be:

Philly on SE to the coast C-2" at most of snow, mostly sleet so probably less, and then over to a chilly rain.

Philly on NW to the Lehigh Valley 2-4" of snow, to sleet and freezing rain, then ending as a chilly rain.

Lehigh Valley on NW into NE PA 4-8" of snow, then to sleet and freezing rain. Depending on low-level cold, storm may remain frozen throughout.

This all depends on initial onset of precip and how strong the low-level cold hangs on. I think sleet/freezing rain will be the predominant precip with the easterly winds off the coast in the mid-levels. In fact, my snow forecasts are probably too high but it's still 3-4 days away. The Ukie and Euro are much colder and snowier than the GFS and CMC.

This forecast still stands. Cut back for those SE of Philly to C-1" at most of sleet/snow. 

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17 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

This looks like a perfect call imo

Interesting that she's so low in the coal region and the southern Poconos. Up here, WNEP's morning guy (Joe Snedeker) has 7.3" for Allentown and double digits for just about everyone else. And they are USUALLY very conservative...

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5 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Interesting that she's so low in the coal region and the southern Poconos. Up here, WNEP's morning guy (Joe Snedeker) has 7.3" for Allentown and double digits for just about everyone else. And they are USUALLY very conservative...

I think they are underplaying the mid level warmth. In storms like these with a strong southern fetch off the ocean, the mid levels warm much quicker than anticipated. Have seen it several times in the last few years and it was responsible for the mega bust 'blizzard' of 2017. Everyone will change to sleet imo and it will come much quicker than anticipated cutting down on projected totals. There is definitely a chance for some lollipops of 6-8" in the high elevation area's though. I think 3-6" in the pocono region is a fair estimate for now almost all on the front end. There is a chance though you guys get in on the deformation band. Something to watch.

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8 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

I think they are underplaying the mid level warmth. In storms like these with a strong southern fetch off the ocean, the mid levels warm much quicker than anticipated. Have seen it several times in the last few years and it was responsible for the mega bust 'blizzard' of 2017. Everyone will change to sleet imo and it will come much quicker than anticipated cutting down on projected totals. There is definitely a chance for some lollipops of 6-8" in the high elevation area's though. I think 3-6" in the pocono region is a fair estimate for now almost all on the front end. There is a chance though you guys get in on the deformation band. Something to watch.

I agree. Warm air will not be denied. I've seen it so many times. I sit at 825" and if the Lehigh Valley flips, we usually do too. I said over in our own forum that I just can't see more than 3-6 out of this even for my location.

The deformation band is the caveat, but how many times does that actually work out?

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1 hour ago, The Iceman said:

This looks like a perfect call imo

I thought so also...people shouldn't expect much in mid Nov. Believe me my eyes will be glued to skies tomorrow morning for the first flakes. (A tradition) Basically I just want to see flakes for the first time this year . If we get more...great. If we get less...great. Just need to see to first flakes!!! Save the good stuff in a couple weeks or so....good luck N and W for this event!

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19 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

I thought so also...people shouldn't expect much in mid Nov. Believe me my eyes will be glued to skies tomorrow morning for the first flakes. (A tradition) Basically I just want to see flakes for the first time this year . If we get more...great. If we get less...great. Just need to see to first flakes!!! Save the good stuff in a couple weeks or so....good luck N and W for this event!

This!

For me Nov is the "pre-season" -- tomorrow is just an exhibition game. Doesn't matter if we win or lose, I just want to see how the free agent signings and new draft picks look.

Anything frozen that falls on 11/15 is good! I'll take it as a sign mother nature maybe tipping her hand at what this winter has in store for us. I recall too many Novembers with temps in the 70's and no hint of winter in sight.

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A less talked about thing with this storm is the rainfall, should see widespread totals of 1-2" again. Pretty surprised the big rivers in the area aren't running high or in action stage with all the widespread synoptic rainfall events the past 2 months. Thought we'd see at least minor flooding in some of the creeks and rivers at this point.

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30 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

12z GFS is way warmer at the surface....most places outside of the pocono's don't even start as snow. Big rainmaker though, deform band rolls right over the area but temps are too warm aloft and at the surface.

Meh, throw it out because I have no explanation. Wait for the Euro...if that sucks wait for the next run.

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