Hurricane Agnes Posted October 3, 2018 Share Posted October 3, 2018 Ended up with 0.19" of rain overnight (between 10:30 - 11:30). Didn't seem to be extreme enough to wake me up but at one point it was almost 1/2" an hour. Currently 65 and overcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted October 3, 2018 Share Posted October 3, 2018 0.58" from last night's t-storms here in East Nantmeal - overall well above normal temps (avg hi/lo today 68.2/48.4) should continue for the next couple weeks before some below normal temps show up the last couple weeks of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted October 3, 2018 Share Posted October 3, 2018 Got 0.60" last night, a bit of a surprise, but slept through it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted October 4, 2018 Share Posted October 4, 2018 Kinda feels like shiet out there for Oct.....tomorrow/Sat should be a breathe of fresh air...then another little spike in temps. From the 15th on we will probably not see any temps 70+ for quite a while. Radar looks pretty lame. 84F/ DP 73F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted October 4, 2018 Share Posted October 4, 2018 Got 0.23" of rain and a rumble of thunder with that pre-frontal trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted October 4, 2018 Share Posted October 4, 2018 Had 20 minutes or so of heavy rain, at one point almost 1.5"/hr. Ended up with 0.30" from that. Had a surprising low of 58 this morning but it did get up to 82 after the fog burned off. Currently 74 and overcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 5, 2018 Author Share Posted October 5, 2018 Current temp 76/DP 71/RH 85% Pretty impressive for this time of night in October IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted October 5, 2018 Share Posted October 5, 2018 Next week projects warmer than this week. Who remembers when we use to talk about indian summer in October? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted October 5, 2018 Share Posted October 5, 2018 Have the AC on at 1am October 5th because it's 73F outside and 78F inside, can it get any more absurd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted October 5, 2018 Share Posted October 5, 2018 .03" of rain last evening - It's been almost a month since our last 80+ day here in NW Chester County - looks like one last small shot here on Monday. That said above normal temps continue next week but big change to below normal starts toward next weekend. Weather does have a way of balancing out.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted October 5, 2018 Share Posted October 5, 2018 14 minutes ago, ChescoPaWxman said: .03" of rain last evening - It's been almost a month since our last 80+ day here in NW Chester County - looks like one last small shot here on Monday. That said above normal temps continue next week but big change to below normal starts toward next weekend. Weather does have a way of balancing out.... It's like three or four days of average temperatures with a building ridge and a return to warmth behind it. Could make a run for a record October which was set LAST year. Balancing out how? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted October 5, 2018 Share Posted October 5, 2018 I may be wrong but don't we want a warm Oct for a better winter? In other words, we don't want snow in Oct. I thought I read something on this board about that??? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted October 5, 2018 Share Posted October 5, 2018 1 minute ago, Birds~69 said: I may be wrong but don't we want a warm Oct for a better winter? In other words, we don't want snow in Oct. I thought I read something on this board about that??? It's hit or miss with that in the analogs, but does it really matter with old analogs anymore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted October 5, 2018 Share Posted October 5, 2018 9 minutes ago, RedSky said: It's hit or miss with that in the analogs, but does it really matter with old analogs anymore? Not really....weather seems to be way out of whack these days. I could see us getting multiple blizzards this winter or T storms in Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted October 5, 2018 Share Posted October 5, 2018 With this October a mirror image of last, Let's hope the winter doesn't follow suit with a three month torch followed by a cold snowy March yuck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted October 5, 2018 Share Posted October 5, 2018 45 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: I may be wrong but don't we want a warm Oct for a better winter? In other words, we don't want snow in Oct. I thought I read something on this board about that??? Yeah, I don't think anyone has demonstrated an actual correlation between Oct snows and crappy winters, but it sure seems to work out that way. In fact, I don't think we want accumulating snow before Thanksgiving. The only time I recall that ever working in our favor was Nov '95. My other rule of thumb is I like a wet fall. I was nervous last year because of how dry in got, but we did end up doing okay (even though winter took a break during the heart of the season). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted October 5, 2018 Share Posted October 5, 2018 1 hour ago, RedSky said: It's like three or four days of average temperatures with a building ridge and a return to warmth behind it. Could make a run for a record October which was set LAST year. Balancing out how? Hi Red Sky, Data I am looking at like the attached indicate much cooler than normal which while not cancelling out the 1st 2 week warmth will bring us to a more reasonable October average temp vs. normals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted October 5, 2018 Share Posted October 5, 2018 CPC put out their latest ENSO status here (PDF file) - http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf They are predicting an incoming El Niño, with a higher probability for it making a winter appearance. Based on their data at that link, the current conditions seem to mirror 2006 & 2012. It will all depend on whether we have a strong El Niño or weak one (or even a delayed one altogether where we stay closer to neutral). As an obs, had a low of 60 this morning and currently 67 and overcast. Am thinking my "high" may end up being what it was at midnight, which was 73! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted October 5, 2018 Share Posted October 5, 2018 19 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said: CPC put out their latest ENSO status here (PDF file) - http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf They are predicting an incoming El Niño, with a higher probability for it making a winter appearance. Based on their data at that link, the current conditions seem to mirror 2006 & 2012. It will all depend on whether we have a strong El Niño or weak one (or even a delayed one altogether where we stay closer to neutral). As an obs, had a low of 60 this morning and currently 67 and overcast. Am thinking my "high" may end up being what it was at midnight, which was 73! 2012 looks like La Nina on that chart? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted October 5, 2018 Share Posted October 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, RedSky said: 2012 looks like La Nina on that chart? I was comparing what was on the chart on pg. 22... if you follow it across the rows. Edit to add - I have been seeing some write-ups thinking that El Niño might be delayed. Whether we drop into a La Niña instead is another thing altogether! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted October 5, 2018 Share Posted October 5, 2018 6 hours ago, JTA66 said: Yeah, I don't think anyone has demonstrated an actual correlation between Oct snows and crappy winters, but it sure seems to work out that way. In fact, I don't think we want accumulating snow before Thanksgiving. The only time I recall that ever working in our favor was Nov '95. My other rule of thumb is I like a wet fall. I was nervous last year because of how dry in got, but we did end up doing okay (even though winter took a break during the heart of the season). I agree, why use up a good pattern in Oct. and Nov.? It so often leads to minimal snow for Dec. - Feb. that I'd just rather not have early snow. One thing this fall is that the critters are eating like there's no tomorrow, fwiw. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 7, 2018 Author Share Posted October 7, 2018 Current temp 78/DP 71/RH 77% Not feeling much like fall that is for sure, at least not yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 On 10/5/2018 at 7:34 PM, KamuSnow said: I agree, why use up a good pattern in Oct. and Nov.? It so often leads to minimal snow for Dec. - Feb. that I'd just rather not have early snow. One thing this fall is that the critters are eating like there's no tomorrow, fwiw. One could see GFS toying with a snow look at 210 hours, WE DON"T WANT THAT!. 0z ECM hinted at it too with an anomalous eastern trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarrenCtyWx Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 13 minutes ago, RedSky said: One could see GFS toying with a snow look at 210 hours, WE DON"T WANT THAT!. 0z ECM hinted at it too with an anomalous eastern trough. Any type of trough would be more than welcome at this point. FWIW, I recall 2002 and 2009 having traces of snow in the area, so it's not automatically a death sentence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 22 minutes ago, WarrenCtyWx said: Any type of trough would be more than welcome at this point. FWIW, I recall 2002 and 2009 having traces of snow in the area, so it's not automatically a death sentence. I think it's a death sentence when it occurs in an otherwise toaster bath pattern . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 7, 2018 Author Share Posted October 7, 2018 Current temp is 81 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 78F / DP 73F....,.Oct??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 Highs in the 50s next weekend??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 12 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Highs in the 50s next weekend??? Frying pan to possibly the freezer weather coming as the tropical remnants reinforce the trough dropping in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 39 minutes ago, RedSky said: Frying pan to possibly the freezer weather coming as the tropical remnants reinforce the trough dropping in. I think starting Fiday will be the official switch to Fall from here on out....no more frying pan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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