Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Sept-Oct heavy rain and Flooding threat


janetjanet998
 Share

Recommended Posts

3 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Picked up 0.69" early this morning, and this evening so far.  The storms in the area right now are extremely electric.  Non-stop thunder right now, with occasional crashes as well.  Looks like we're in for a very stormy night.

EDIT:  Up to 1.58" as of 9pm.  Good shot at 3-5" tonight.

looks like training over you and right up the Rock River watershed

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I did very well in September with regard to heavy rainfall.  I was pretty excited about the prospect of another multi-day deluge.  The first week of October, however, has been a dud.  A few days ago very heavy rain set up just north and now tonight it's setting up just south.  In between, we've received squat.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Luckily for this area the fire hose bumped a bit north/northwest which has given us a break from the rain the past hour or so.  Radar was looking a little scary a few hours ago.  The rains will return later on, but should be progressive as the whole thing will be shifting southeastward.  Looks like perhaps another inch at most now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Oh boy.  I don't think this is the favored scenario at this point though.  

Moves through very fast, which keeps precip amounts somewhat in check

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh96-132.thumb.gif.9c40af4abb344fe9d0e6d99b5592db62.gif

12z GGEM shifted east some tracking the center through W OH bringing the heaviest rain to much of IN into SEMI. 12z GFS shifted west some basically tracking the center over the Apps giving the heaviest rain to OH. 0z Euro appears to keep it in the SE.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, snowlover2 said:

12z GGEM shifted east some tracking the center through W OH bringing the heaviest rain to much of IN into SEMI. 12z GFS shifted west some basically tracking the center over the Apps giving the heaviest rain to OH. 0z Euro appears to keep it in the SE.

A faster US landfall should favor a farther west track, with a slower landfall favoring farther east.  This thing really isn't even organized yet though and we'll have to see where the center ultimately forms.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

.85" last night in my backyard in Madison. Not a ton of rain, but it's been saturated for weeks here and just keeps coming. The area lakes are still less than a foot below the record level they hit a few weeks ago, so if we do happen to get any of the heavier rain in the next week it will be bad news and probably new records.

  • Sad 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just to illustrate the speed differences with the tropical system, here are the 12z model runs.  Canadian is the quickest, with the GFS a tad slower and the ECMWF significantly slower.  In fact, it hasn't even crossed land yet at 120 hrs on the Euro.

 

gem_z500_mslp_us_17.thumb.png.9fc0e3b195616aa8d0176df48ad1aa77.png

gfs_z500_mslp_us_17.thumb.png.2cb03f028de5c7913831aa5ca47751f2.png

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_5.thumb.png.3c7ae0958a5e4bda7d9e57656535f777.png

 

Models are similar with speed through 48-60 hours.  Given the time of year but more importantly the actual pattern in place with the trough/ridge combo steering mechanism, I'm not sure how it takes the ECMWF a full 3 days to move the system from near the tip of the Yucatan to the Gulf coast.  Not saying it absolutely can't happen but it just seems too slow in this setup.  As mentioned, a faster motion (if it occurs) should allow a farther west track through the OV because the trough will have made less eastward progress to act as a kicker/suppresser.  Slower would favor farther east.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14-day precip analysis shows that some heavy rains and floods have happened over the central US. Kansas City may be breaking out of its drought. Localized floods happened in the southwest with Hurricane Rosa's remnants. I would think that SW Oklahoma and vicinity, Kansas City, and northeast Iowa into Wisconsin may have had floods within the past several days. Drought reductions are mainly centered on Texas, Oklahoma, and Missouri, and Arizona.

 

gztvTBB.jpg

 

ScgXvYl.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...