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Sept-Oct heavy rain and Flooding threat


janetjanet998
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As expected Gordon's remnants will miss this area well to the southeast.  Very unusual to get tropical remnants this far nw.  I'd say maybe once in about 10 years estimating.  

Despite the rather ominous potential that this latest round of rains presented we came out with about the perfect amount of rain.  Just under 2" since Saturday.  Looking forward to the break in the heat and humidity in the next few days.

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0z NAM seems to have that weak Vortex the RAP has...you can see it in the 850 MB wind fields off and on and it seems to wonder around  SE IA then into northern centraL IL the next 36 hours......dumping heavy rains before gordon..

now the 01 HRRR shows something similar in the sim radar returns over SE IA

The heaviest rains form Gordon fall just south of the areas mentioned above..so there is still no overlap...but its pretty close

 

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This situation is starting to remind me of the remnants of Tropical Storm Grace (2003) which made landfall in Texas as a weaker tropical storm, then the moisture kept moving along a stationary front, all the way from Texas to the Midwest to the Northeast. Rainfall values from  Aug 31-Sep 5 2003:

Toledo - 2.78"

Indianapolis: 8.29" 

Columbus: 3.24"

Dayton: 2.96"

Louisville: 3.71"

Paducah: 2.58"

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1 hour ago, Chinook said:

This situation is starting to remind me of the remnants of Tropical Storm Grace (2003) which made landfall in Texas as a weaker tropical storm, then the moisture kept moving along a stationary front, all the way from Texas to the Midwest to the Northeast. Rainfall values from  Aug 31-Sep 5 2003:

Toledo - 2.78"

Indianapolis: 8.29" 

Columbus: 3.24"

Dayton: 2.96"

Louisville: 3.71"

Paducah: 2.58"

I remember Grace.  It set the all-time daily record for precip for Indianapolis.   

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DVN mentioning that vortex I was talking about

 

they are also disregarding the EURO

 

SUED AT 325 AM CDT THU SEP 6 2018  
  
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION RIPPLING SLOWLY E/NE TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO  
PROVIDE FOCUS FOR MAINLY RAIN/SHOWERS MUCH OF THE AREA GENERALLY   
SOUTH OF CID-FEP AXIS. SOME CONCERNS FOR SHARS (SUBTLE HEAVY   
RAINFALL EVENT) CENTRAL AND SOUTH, WITH SLOW MOVING VORT MAX   
POTENTIALLY STRENGTHENING DUE TO TIGHTENING BAROCLINICITY,   
PRESENCE OF VERY DEEP ANOMALOUSLY HIGH TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE,   
LIMITED/SKINNY CAPE, WEAK SHEAR AND LOW/SHALLOW EL. HEAVY   
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1+ INCHES LIKELY WHERE RAIN BAND STAYS   
ANCHORED AND TRAINING OCCURS WITHIN LLJ TRANSPORT AND CONTINUOUS   
FORCING...........

.........SOME CONCERNS ALSO   
EXIST THAT REMNANT MID LEVEL CIRCULATION COULD STILL BE LURKING  
ABOUT AND RE-FOCUS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOR RENEWED   
DEVELOPMENT AND HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT ESPECIALLY   
FURTHER NORTH THROUGH THE HWY 30 TO HWY 20 CORRIDORS, AS BEING   
RECENTLY SUGGESTED BY HRRR. 

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These SHARS events are low topped efficient rainfall events..often peaking at night..radar often underestimates rainfall rates..often not modeled well

3-4 inches down in place s NW of the IL river 

sparland IL 20 miles north of PIA 4.75 inches if its correct..they got trained by storms yesterday afternoon so it very well may be

 

 

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On 8/31/2018 at 9:27 PM, IWXwx said:

You're right about the short range models and the same thing happened in Southern IN this afternoon where a cluster of storms blew up and dumped heavy rains over a few counties this afternoon even though nothing was modeled. It's setup where if a butterfly flaps its wings.....

Early morning I fired up the HRRR to see what to expect for jobs today.   Showed scattered showers developing well north of us in early afternoon.   As I sit here at 10am cluster storms blowing up right over top and to our sw....latest HRRR still shows nothing.   

 

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EURO north again..not as far north as CMC

 

everyone seems to be playing catch up withe heavy rains from that vortex

 

with the more north path .Gordon may overlap this area later

 

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
152 PM EDT THU SEP 06 2018  
  
DAY 1  
VALID 1747Z THU SEP 06 2018 - 12Z FRI SEP 07 2018  
  
1800 UTC UPDATE  
  
FFG VALUES HAVING LOWERED FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINS ACROSS CENTRAL  
TO NORTHEAST MO INTO FAR SOUTHEAST IA AND NORTHWEST IL.  AFTER  
COLLABORATION WITH WFO LSX..A MODERATE RISK AREA WAS ADDED FOR  
POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE  
LOWERED FFG VALUE AREA.  ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS MAY DEVELOP LATE  
IN THE DAY 1 PERIOD...TOWARD 1200 UTC FRIDAY...THAT MAY AFFECT  
NORTHERN MO INTO NORTHWEST IL...WITH ADDITIONAL RUNOFF ISSUE  
POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME.  

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