September Models and Pattern: The March to Fall

[Typhoon Tip]

Fwiw and not to be contrarian but the 12z Euro looked like it flipped back to that look it had in the extended two days ago... which featured a fairly robust example of a pattern change. 

Guess we'll see -

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

18 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Any return flow the past 2.5 months has been instant 70F+ dews. Insane.

Good. Hope the dews continue through winter so we don’t have to fight through dry air starring at the street light with our finger up against it looking for the first sign of flurries.

[snowman21]

24 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

Normal at BDL is 74/51. The week ahead is mostly below that.

Don't think so. I just ran the 10-day against BDL's normals and it comes out to +2.95 with only one day, Sunday, coming in with a negative departure at -0.5 degree. I dunno maybe Ryan is out to lunch on this one and will be way off, but it looks like a solidly above normal forecast for the next week plus to me. Any time you hang a double digit departure on the low temp you're basically screwed and we have a few of those nights in the forecast where it doesn't get much below 60. By this Saturday most of Connecticut's 27 long term climate stations will have normal lows in the 40s, obviously away from the coast and outside the cities, but it shows you the rapid progression we're supposed to be making by this time of year when normals are dropping 1 degree/3 days.

[SRRTA22]

18z gfs....oh hi florence...back for leftovers?

[Hoth]

1 minute ago, SRRTA22 said:

18z gfs....oh hi florence...back for leftovers?

Congrats Hazey at the end of the run. 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, snowman21 said:

Don't think so. I just ran the 10-day against BDL's normals and it comes out to +2.95 with only one day, Sunday, coming in with a negative departure at -0.5 degree. I dunno maybe Ryan is out to lunch on this one and will be way off, but it looks like a solidly above normal forecast for the next week plus to me. Any time you hang a double digit departure on the low temp you're basically screwed and we have a few of those nights in the forecast where it doesn't get much below 60. By this Saturday most of Connecticut's 27 long term climate stations will have normal lows in the 40s, obviously away from the coast and outside the cities, but it shows you the rapid progression we're supposed to be making by this time of year when normals are dropping 1 degree/3 days.

Yup. There’s zero BN temps . 70’s in September is not chilly or BN. Those torched Great Lakes are gonna modify every single airmass . Maybe a few of the fake cold spots get into the 40’s one or two nights. Sounds normal 

[Sugarloaf1989]

1 hour ago, snowman21 said:

Don't think so. I just ran the 10-day against BDL's normals and it comes out to +2.95 with only one day, Sunday, coming in with a negative departure at -0.5 degree. I dunno maybe Ryan is out to lunch on this one and will be way off, but it looks like a solidly above normal forecast for the next week plus to me. Any time you hang a double digit departure on the low temp you're basically screwed and we have a few of those nights in the forecast where it doesn't get much below 60. By this Saturday most of Connecticut's 27 long term climate stations will have normal lows in the 40s, obviously away from the coast and outside the cities, but it shows you the rapid progression we're supposed to be making by this time of year when normals are dropping 1 degree/3 days.

The week ahead looks normal to me: And I'll probably be below those forecasted low temperatures. 

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Enfield&state=CT&site=BOX&lat=41.9667&lon=-72.5667#.W6GZ4B4pASw

[Hoth]

19 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yup. There’s zero BN temps . 70’s in September is not chilly or BN. Those torched Great Lakes are gonna modify every single airmass . Maybe a few of the fake cold spots get into the 40’s one or two nights. Sounds normal 

Waiting for that late October/early November crippling 100"+ lake effect event. Lakes are quite warm this year.

[HoarfrostHubb]

20 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yup. There’s zero BN temps . 70’s in September is not chilly or BN. Those torched Great Lakes are gonna modify every single airmass . Maybe a few of the fake cold spots get into the 40’s one or two nights. Sounds normal 

The Great Lakes?    Hmmmmm....

[Sugarloaf1989]

2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

The Great Lakes?    Hmmmmm....

Don't forget about the Deep South. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

38 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

The week ahead looks normal to me: And I'll probably be below those forecasted low temperatures. 

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Enfield&state=CT&site=BOX&lat=41.9667&lon=-72.5667#.W6GZ4B4pASw

Yea. Next 7days looks typical Sep around here. We moved out of the nasty stuff quickly, Florence helped swish it all up.  

[Sugarloaf1989]

8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea. Next 7days looks typical Sep around here. We moved out of the nasty stuff quickly, Florence helped swish it all up.  

And with average temperatures dropping 1-3 degrees a day, snowfall can't be far away.

[CapturedNature]

9 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yup. There’s zero BN temps . 70’s in September is not chilly or BN. Those torched Great Lakes are gonna modify every single airmass . Maybe a few of the fake cold spots get into the 40’s one or two nights. Sounds normal 

Just like the fake heat spots hitting 90°....

[CoastalWx]

I see a yo-yo look. Mean trough will be west, so we'll get a push of colder and drier air with HP building in from the NNW. Usually a good delivery for us. But with trough axis west, return flow of warm and humid air along with storm chances and cyclogenesis on the east coast. It's a good pattern for a hybrid type of storm too. May have to watch for that. 

[CoastalWx]

If this were winter, that's a great looking pattern for storms. 

[Rtd208]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I see a yo-yo look. Mean trough will be west, so we'll get a push of colder and drier air with HP building in from the NNW. Usually a good delivery for us. But with trough axis west, return flow of warm and humid air along with storm chances and cyclogenesis on the east coast. It's a good pattern for a hybrid type of storm too. May have to watch for that. 

 

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

If this were winter, that's a great looking pattern for storms. 

I am hoping for plenty of nor'easters this fall/winter and an early start in October.

[Hoth]

Perhaps a repeat something akin to that windy nor'easter last October with the upcoming pattern? Draw up some quasi-tropical entity out of the Gulf and fling it into James' back yard.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I see a yo-yo look. Mean trough will be west, so we'll get a push of colder and drier air with HP building in from the NNW. Usually a good delivery for us. But with trough axis west, return flow of warm and humid air along with storm chances and cyclogenesis on the east coast. It's a good pattern for a hybrid type of storm too. May have to watch for that. 

GL will modify any chilly air masses unfortunately 

[Damage In Tolland]

45 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Perhaps a repeat something akin to that windy nor'easter last October with the upcoming pattern? Draw up some quasi-tropical entity out of the Gulf and fling it into James' back yard.

If the trough axis is west , it should mean several opps for screaming sou’easters. That’s what that was last year. Something tells me we could be in for some extremely damaging windstorms this fall 

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

GL will modify any chilly air masses unfortunately 

That will be a bummer come December.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

That will be a bummer come December.

Especially how warm his spot is, in general, compared to surroundings. 

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

That will be a bummer come December.

How much do you think it will modify things?

[HIPPYVALLEY]

End of the week not looking quite as dry as it did yesterday. 

[dendrite]

13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

How much do you think it will modify things?

Enough to make our 33F and rain a 34F and rain.

[dryslot]

43 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Enough to make our 33F and rain a 34F and rain.

Sounds like it will still be a cold rain then.

[Typhoon Tip]

13 hours ago, SRRTA22 said:

18z gfs....oh hi florence...back for leftovers?

yeah ...I didn't catch that. 

I just posted about the 'zombie Flo' over in the scrolled 'Florence thread but I was just observing the behavior amid the 00z runs.  The Euro even had some semblence of a regeneration of 'some'thing nearing back toward the SE coast.  

it's funny ...if perhaps not so much in a 'ha-ha' way...but, in a last 1,000,000 years of eastern N/A geological history, has a 'cane ever smashed into the SE... trundled to an apparent decay as it smeared east of NE....dipped/forced S... regenerated...  smashed into the SE... trundled to an apparent decay as it smeared east of NE....dipped/forced S... regenerated...smashed into the SE... trundled to an apparent decay as it smeared east of NE....dipped/forced S... regenerated...smashed into the SE... trundled to an apparent decay as it smeared east of NE....dipped/forced S... regenerated...smashed into the SE... trundled to an apparent decay as it smeared east of NE....dipped/forced S... regenerated...smashed into the SE... trundled to an apparent decay as it smeared east of NE....dipped/forced S... regenerated...smashed into the SE... trundled to an apparent decay as it smeared east of NE....dipped/forced S... regenerated...

finally... the Cherokee Indians abandoned the 'Linas' and warned early settlers not to try and settle there ...heh. 

[SJonesWX]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

That will be a bummer come December.

this is the first time that I have ever heard of the great Lakes modifying air masses anywhere, especially in NE. I could see it on a micro level, kind of like an ocean front, but hundreds of miles away? Let me guess, more hyperbole from DIT, and he will say that he is "trying to drive discussion".

[Typhoon Tip]

15 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

this is the first time that I have ever heard of the great Lakes modifying air masses anywhere, especially in NE. I could see it on a micro level, kind of like an ocean front, but hundreds of miles away? Let me guess, more hyperbole from DIT, and he will say that he is "trying to drive discussion".

Interesting ...  'cause it's been a real physically trace-able and empirically measured phenomenon for hundreds of years ...and has been happening in Nature ever since the x-y-z geological processes carved out the GL -

[Damage In Tolland]

39 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

this is the first time that I have ever heard of the great Lakes modifying air masses anywhere, especially in NE. I could see it on a micro level, kind of like an ocean front, but hundreds of miles away? Let me guess, more hyperbole from DIT, and he will say that he is "trying to drive discussion".

If you’ve never heard of it then it’s time to ask yourself how much you know about the weather. It greatly affects all of our air masses . Wow 

[CapturedNature]

21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

If you’ve never heard of it then it’s time to ask yourself how much you know about the weather. It greatly affects all of our air masses . Wow 

It affects it, but not as much as you're thinking it will.  If you send an arctic air mass over it, it's not going to be suddenly 80's and sunny here.  The water will also cool over time, lessening the effect.  It's not like it's going to stay at the same temp all winter...lol.