September Models and Pattern: The March to Fall

[Typhoon Tip]

17 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I apologize for the false attribution, I missed the words "other than" in your stressed out maples comment.

Still I typically don't think of color showing until around my birthday (next weekend) and coastal Maine is much more like SNE than NNE.

We cooler temps but no frost, and sunny days for brilliant color. So it's been fairly warm overnight, I would expect some delay in that, but not pretty far behind. It's not hard to catch up this time of year, because the real driver is loss of daylight. 

Hmm.. I give his reader's the benefit of the doubt on that though... He counts on it that people tend, naturally, to elide those sort of buried qualifying modifiers .. because his ultimate goal is creating alternate realities ... i.,e, spin tactic -

If he really meant, 'other than' ... he would have said, "There are some stressed species that show color as they usually do at this time of year, other than those ... " but, the spinner doesn't want that focus

You gotta understand ... Kevin is by trait a salesman, and he tries to ply that acumen in here... to guile the listener - 'why' has always puzzled me.  Why does one want the world caught up in some delusion that is far beyond the extremeness of what is actually taking place in reality?  Not sure what the motivation is behind seeking that goal.  I suspect it's really just a form of troll, even if it is of the lesser pernicious type. 

That oughta poke the hornet's nest!

[tamarack]

Quite a bit of color - 20% or so - on the foothills, much less in my <400' site.  Peak here is usually Oct. 5-10.  When I lived up north, it was last week of Sept.

Ex-Florence qpf draining away from here on the models.  Would be nice to get a quick 2" to start filling up the swamps, but I expect that type of RA to stay south.

[J Paul Gordon]

Color should be beautiful this year with all the moisture. And the cool down will come no matter what. Looks like a big step down toward the weekend. Normal early October then the floor drops out from under us for a long time. Mix in some storms and we're lining up for a winter to remember and then some. 

How do I know, extraordinary production of fruits, berries, and nuts, squirrels with ridiculously bushy, and my grandmother's "old wives tales" that prove surprisingly correct. Hunch, intuition, the inner weenie in me expressing myself? And one of the various Farmers Almanacs out there confirming my wishcasting, too.

[Typhoon Tip]

Just now, tamarack said:

Quite a bit of color - 20% or so - on the foothills, much less in my <400' site.  Peak here is usually Oct. 5-10.  When I lived up north, it was last week of Sept.

Ex-Florence qpf draining away from here on the models.  Would be nice to get a quick 2" to start filling up the swamps, but I expect that type of RA to stay south.

A buddy of mine is into photography of foliage and so forth ... he says that far NNE starts showing more than mere stressing by this time...

Did y'all get that frost of there last week?  There was talk of it... I think I saw an advisory painted.  I'm asking because I've also read that cold also plays a part moving the transition along -

[powderfreak]

22 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I look forward to stick season when I arrive in Stowe for the SLS conference.

When is that?  We'll have to grab a beer.

[Typhoon Tip]

13 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said:

Color should be beautiful this year with all the moisture. And the cool down will come no matter what. Looks like a big step down toward the weekend. Normal early October then the floor drops out from under us for a long time. Mix in some storms and we're lining up for a winter to remember and then some. 

How do I know, extraordinary production of fruits, berries, and nuts, squirrels with ridiculously bushy, and my grandmother's "old wives tales" that prove surprisingly correct. Hunch, intuition, the inner weenie in me expressing myself? And one of the various Farmers Almanacs out there confirming my wishcasting, too.

That's the "science" I've come by over the years, too ... ample hydration during the presaging months lends to the vibrancy of the displays. 

However, I almost wonder if it is too much of a good thing this go around. 

I was discussing with Tam' the other day ... this 'tar fungus' blight that surged a lot of broad-leaf species last year; I was wondering if the same may take place this time. It was bad.  As I discussed then...I have this tree immediately adjacent my property that is a huge maple.  For six years running...every October ... 13 to the 16th, I could count on that sucker turning so bright in yellow-orange complexion on sunny blue-bird days that you would half to squint looking at it.  Last year?  Nothing - ... it really was quite remarkable how complete the failure was.  It went from tired mid September green... to this beige - yellow ... heavily dappled with poop colored smudges...then from their, faded to brown and downed.  Almost creepy -

Anyway, these tendencies for persistent summer ridging is trapping VOC's and elevated DPs and whatnot in the atmosphere...It's keeping lows elevated and day's succumbing now to lingering stratus and fog with the dimming sun angles less effective at evaporating the moistures off and exposing the foliage to corrective ultra-violet radiation ...etc...  It's like a steamy closet out there, which makes me wonder if that blight doesn't take place again. 

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

When is that?  We'll have to grab a beer.

Week of October 22nd, I'd love to meet up.

I was actually in VT for a wedding last weekend and visited The Alchemist and totally forgot to check out where the Stoweflake (conference venue) was. 

But by that time, we should be firmly entrenched in the -KFS pattern.

[OceanStWx]

14 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Quite a bit of color - 20% or so - on the foothills, much less in my <400' site.  Peak here is usually Oct. 5-10.  When I lived up north, it was last week of Sept.

Ex-Florence qpf draining away from here on the models.  Would be nice to get a quick 2" to start filling up the swamps, but I expect that type of RA to stay south.

EPS moved towards more members with around 2" for PWM. So that's a favorable trend, but obviously the higher uncertainty is the northern edge.

Op run is a near clean whiff of our region. 

[Great Snow 1717]

6 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

No one reads any of your posts . Just letting you know so you don’t waste time

well then you must consider yourself to be no one......lol 

I find it amazing that from the comfort of your recliner(while you gaze out the window  looking at gypsy moths) in the living room...yes the room with the window AC ….that you are able to determine that only stressed trees are showing color....remarkable indeed. Or are you gathering that info from twitter?...perhaps from the same people who were mentioning a redux of 1816 prior to the summers of 2017 and 2018????? 

 

 

 

[Great Snow 1717]

1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

So let me get this straight, no signs of color on stressed out trees, except the stressed trees that are showing color, and  SNE is pretty far behind, but NNE is totally normal. Got it.

As usual he is wrong. Smartest man in the room......

[dendrite]

It’s going to feel like a shock when we finally get into a normal/BN pattern. This is perfect timing for extended warmth. Days and days of 80/55 are fine by me.

[LurkerBoy]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It’s going to feel like a shock when we finally get into a normal/BN pattern. This is perfect timing for extended warmth. Days and days of 80/55 are fine by me.

When do you think that’s coming though?

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It’s going to feel like a shock when we finally get into a normal/BN pattern. This is perfect timing for extended warmth. Days and days of 80/55 are fine by me.

Despite the 00z run tenor ...which attempts to deride the previous multi-guidance, multi-day persistent dynamic with the extended ... I still think that time has a chance to be sooner.

I'm only median confident, but the hemisphere might enter reshuffling here in about 10 days. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Someone tell that Grand Wizard of 1717 poster we just see his screen name and keep scrolling 

[tamarack]

6 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

A buddy of mine is into photography of foliage and so forth ... he says that far NNE starts showing more than mere stressing by this time...

Did y'all get that frost of there last week?  There was talk of it... I think I saw an advisory painted.  I'm asking because I've also read that cold also plays a part moving the transition along -

Frozen dew on the pickup roof last Sunday and 32 on the max-min but no garden damage.  That plus the 33 the next morning kick-started the color a bit.

Though I'm more than tired of AN temps and especially dews, that's just personal preference.  When it comes to the lead-up to winter, AN is no concern to me unless/until it extends into November.

[Great Snow 1717]

4 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Someone tell that Grand Wizard of 1717 poster we just see his screen name and keep scrolling 

Personally I do not care if anyone reads any of my posts. You are the one who constantly seeks and needs  attention! 

 

[powderfreak]

6 hours ago, dendrite said:

It’s going to feel like a shock when we finally get into a normal/BN pattern. This is perfect timing for extended warmth. Days and days of 80/55 are fine by me.

84/65 this afternoon is warmer and more humid than the climo norm in July here.  Of course we had a low of 49F and excellent sleeping wx last night, but dews back to 65F with mid-80s is hot for mid-September.

I can't believe we had a solid frost already and yet it keeps being summer.

[alex]

43/80 yesterday and 41/81 today. May not feel like fall but this weather is hard to beat. 

[Hoth]

Seeing a few blue pixels and that 540 thickness line slung across CNE at the end of the GFS run just puts a smile on my face.

[kdxken]

12 hours ago, J Paul Gordon said:

Color should be beautiful this year with all the moisture. And the cool down will come no matter what. Looks like a big step down toward the weekend. Normal early October then the floor drops out from under us for a long time. Mix in some storms and we're lining up for a winter to remember and then some. 

How do I know, extraordinary production of fruits, berries, and nuts, squirrels with ridiculously bushy, and my grandmother's "old wives tales" that prove surprisingly correct. Hunch, intuition, the inner weenie in me expressing myself? And one of the various Farmers Almanacs out there confirming my wishcasting, too.

Great post!

[CapturedNature]

On 9/15/2018 at 7:16 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

Of course there’s the usual stressed out trees of which there’s many .. but my point was we are already pretty far behind in SNE. NNE is a different story 

Stafford & Union must have a fair amount of stressed out trees...lol

Besides, it's 9/16, not 9/30.  Peak isn't for another month or so here and 6 weeks for the valley.  The leaves changes not only by temperature but by daylight as well.  It's a balance of the tree being able to produce the sugar it needs given the temperature with the amount of daylight available.

I remember one year, I think it was 1988 or 1989 when I was at Lyndon where we had a very warm and storm free late Summer/early Fall and not only did the leaves change late but when the leaves changed they stayed on trees for a very long time.  It gave the effect that it looked like peak from Connecticut to Northern Vermont.  Perhaps we'll get one of those years?

[Bostonseminole]

Heavy Rain incoming.. northern MA to NH border seems like the heaviest right now, 3-5"?  any chance for severe? isolated tornado? 

[CoastalWx]

A lot of the guidance shifted south. It’s gonna be tough to know exactly. Any spinner threat is near and south of warm front. My guess is near pike to srn Vt and srn NH zone for rain. 

[Damage In Tolland]

3-6” rains are pike to SNH

Tors are South of 90

[OceanStWx]

Congrats everyone, the FV3 is moved on from evaluation period. 

Apparently they were accepting recommendations from the field, but as part of the field the graphics are really tough to find (especially when you are working an event worth looking at), so I'm not sure how useful the recommendations will be. 

[LurkerBoy]

End of Sep looks N/BN!

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

Congrats everyone, the FV3 is moved on from evaluation period. 

Apparently they were accepting recommendations from the field, but as part of the field the graphics are really tough to find (especially when you are working an event worth looking at), so I'm not sure how useful the recommendations will be. 

Make sure they include the American Weather forum's consensus recommendation to have the model portray a histrionic, D7 hyper bomb upon every release point that verifies every time  -   

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said:

End of Sep looks N/BN!

Lol . Umm no

[Bostonseminole]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Lol . Umm no

i guess if he was looking at the GEFS sure

[LurkerBoy]

21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Lol . Umm no

I’m going off the GEFS. Should I be looking elsewhere?