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September Models and Pattern: The March to Fall


moneypitmike
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On 9/5/2018 at 11:08 AM, tamarack said:

That "f" word showed up in GYX's discussion as well.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High Impact Weather Potential: Low potential for frost in the
mountains and points north Saturday Night...otherwise minimal.

I anticipate the first sub-40 morning since mid June this weekend.
 

Somewhere up here is going to see there first frost, Won't be here but i may have a shot at first 30's Saturday night.

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17 hours ago, snowman21 said:

Sorry 'bout that. Was gonna just list the first orders, but didn't want to leave out anyone's favorite weenie radiating spot.

Farmington, Maine (just 10/50/90%):  Sept. 1/19/30, probably most similar to Newport, VT or Woodland, ME.    My 20 years here, 1998-17:  Sept. 2/17/26, and more tightly bunched than most locations - only 15 days separates 20% and 80% (9th/24th) and 17 for 20/90.

Edit:  Tip, did you mean "grapple" or "graupel"?  PF might see some on the picnic tables.  :weenie:

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1 hour ago, tamarack said:

Farmington, Maine (just 10/50/90%):  Sept. 1/19/30, probably most similar to Newport, VT or Woodland, ME.    My 20 years here, 1998-17:  Sept. 2/17/26, and more tightly bunched than most locations - only 15 days separates 20% and 80% (9th/24th) and 17 for 20/90.

Edit:  Tip, did you mean "grapple" or "graupel"?  PF might see some on the picnic tables.  :weenie:

yeah that one :D

You have to understand ...despite all protestation, I carry on a love-hate relationship with the art of "spellitry" 

anyway, that was intended to lean on the side of amusing more than anything else - obviously.. .But it was 300 or so hours out so -

We can't really get a bead on the mid range ... Seems every cycle spins a new complexion for that D4.5 through 9 time frame - the latter half being more extended...  The GGEM's 12z run decides to pin Florence over southern GA long enough to turn the near shore oceanic waters the color of turbid mud from the bible rains that surge forth...  while driving 850 mb temperatures to 19C or even 20 for four straight days over top, circa ORD to PWM...  

So much for the 'back of summer is broken' in that run.   This may be latest in the year I've ever seen this sort of geopotential height panache frankly, regardless of that stupid model ..regardless of this weekend's seasonal lie.  The Euro out through D7 may not be quite as pig bum sultry in the 850s but if anything looks even more ridgy at mid levels.  

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah that one :D

You have to understand ...despite all protestation, I carry on a love-hate relationship with the art of "spellitry" 

anyway, that was intended to lean on the side of amusing more than anything else - obviously.. .But it was 300 or so hours out so -

We can't really get a bead on the mid range ... Seems every cycle spins a new complexion for that D4.5 through 9 time frame - the latter half being more extended...  The GGEM's 12z run decides to pin Florence over southern GA long enough to turn the near shore oceanic waters the color of turbid mud from the bible rains that surge forth...  while driving 850 mb temperatures to 19C or even 20 for four straight days over top, circa ORD to PWM...  

So much for the 'back of summer is broken' in that run.   This may be latest in the year I've ever seen this sort of geopotential height panache frankly, regardless of that stupid model ..regardless of this weekend's seasonal lie.  The Euro out through D7 may not be quite as pig bum sultry in the 850s but if anything looks even more ridgy at mid levels.  

What does this mean for sensible weather?

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah that one :D

You have to understand ...despite all protestation, I carry on a love-hate relationship with the art of "spellitry" 

anyway, that was intended to lean on the side of amusing more than anything else - obviously.. .But it was 300 or so hours out so -

We can't really get a bead on the mid range ... Seems every cycle spins a new complexion for that D4.5 through 9 time frame - the latter half being more extended...  The GGEM's 12z run decides to pin Florence over southern GA long enough to turn the near shore oceanic waters the color of turbid mud from the bible rains that surge forth...  while driving 850 mb temperatures to 19C or even 20 for four straight days over top, circa ORD to PWM...  

So much for the 'back of summer is broken' in that run.   This may be latest in the year I've ever seen this sort of geopotential height panache frankly, regardless of that stupid model ..regardless of this weekend's seasonal lie.  The Euro out through D7 may not be quite as pig bum sultry in the 850s but if anything looks even more ridgy at mid levels.  

Seems like GFS, at least, does daily (even run-to-run) flip-flops, from "pattern is finally broken" to "here we go again."  I'll just enjoy the weekend cool and hope Florence doesn't crash our woods tour on Thursday.  (Currently looks to stay south, but lots of time to change.)  I recall a 2-day field trip in 2005 on which the first half was done in heavy rain (had 2-3") from the remains of Katrina.  The rain quit just after sunset and we then enjoyed several hours of mid-70s with 30 mph winds, not common after-dark wx in northern Aroostook County.

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Not gonna lie...I haven’t been paying too much attention to the pattern the past week or so. I have been cheating and peeking at MOS and I know the numbers keep coming down for this upcoming week. High 80s and 70F dews at CON have become low 80s and lows either side of 60F. Maybe we end up with one really muggy night in there.

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2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

But it’s not just the eps. Everything is pointing to a shift to cooler temps and dews after the cane leaves the continent.

 

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Ok. We’ll see how the cool pattern works out I guess 

Give it a week but its not really a cool pattern more like a normal. You have got to like how things are shaping up for winter. 

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2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Heat this week looks more meh than we’ve had recently. It’ll be warm and humid, but nothing insane. Deep summer is slip slidin’ away, but fall warmth will linger. 

Was in Groton Ct yesterday for my wifes softball tourney. Chilly rain fell in the afternoon, have to say it was the first day in a long time I was cold.This morning outside playing with the dogs was invigorating. Side note back surgery laminectomy Sept 26th  ski season cancel, bummed but I fought it for 8 years since my accident. 

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13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Ok. We’ll see how the cool pattern works out I guess 

 

8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

Give it a week but its not really a cool pattern more like a normal. You have got to like how things are shaping up for winter. 

I said ‘cooler’, not a ‘cool pattern’. Want to get that on record so when it’s 74/60 at BDL one day DIT won’t lose control of his emotions.

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