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WxWatcher007

Major Hurricane Florence

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5 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

What about Irene. 

I included Irene as an example because it came from the South, landfalling in NC and then moving NNE up the coast.

The NW movement into the Carolinas is very common. The uncommon NW movement North of OBX is what makes this setup potentially anomolus.

In fact Irene began moving NNE in the Bahamas.

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10 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

GFS is identical to euro with a similar LF location

 

Was thinking the same thing. UK should come inline soon. If this is the solution, at least there is many days to prepare. Thankyou to the NCEP programmers who are making a difference in the models! 

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Landfall on Assateague. Nightmare scenario for Ocean city. Not that the specifics matter right now, but it's fun.gfs_2018-09-05-18Z_198_39.266_281.618_34.985_287.878_Winds_10m_highways_cities.png&key=e4a1c95cde7c332d521c5cb988ba746375ecac4fec54d76dd4f8c99c19690c0d

Even if the GFS or ECMWF verified on track, and disclaimer disclaimer disclaimer ad nauseam, I am not saying it will, the GFS continues to be horrible with long-range intensity at high latitudes. No way in hell it's 927 mb near the Delmarve.

Edit: 927, not 922; point still stands, however.

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5 minutes ago, SN_Lover said:

Was thinking the same thing. UK should come inline soon. If this is the solution, at least there is many days to prepare. Thankyou to the NCEP programmers who are making a difference in the models! 

You cant be serious. Models will diverge again and I'm 100% certain of it. This "agreement" is essentially just luck.

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1 hour ago, OSUmetstud said:

Good luck everybody!

12_es3 (4).png

Even a few that make it to the GOM. Somewhat obvious bottom line, no state along the east coast should be ruled out at this point (and neither should a fish storm). 

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2 minutes ago, hlcater said:

You cant be serious. Models will diverge again and I'm 100% certain of it. This "agreement" is essentially just luck.

You cant deny models are better now than they were 10 years ago or before. I can being up statistics if you want. I'm looking at the upper levels not the center is at this point. 

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6 minutes ago, SN_Lover said:

You cant deny models are better now than they were 10 years ago or before. I can being up statistics if you want. I'm looking at the upper levels not the center is at this point. 

Was I making that argument? Look at the ensembles, look at run to run consistency of both the EC and GFS and you'll see  that they just happen to match at this time and will likely be undone next run. You should know this by now.

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1933 Chesapeake–Potomac hurricane looks like the only recorded storm (cat 1 or higher) that ever took a track like the Euro shows

2018-09-05_185759.JPG

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1 minute ago, hlcater said:

Was I making that argument? Look at the ensembles, look at run to run consistency of both the EC and GFS and you'll see why that they just happen to match and will likely be undone next run. You should know this by now.

Agreed tropical systems are too unstable and easily pushed around by the slightest weakness.  Models be damned this far out. 

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31 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said:

GFS is identical to euro with a similar LF location

gfs_pres_wind_watl_33.png

If the EURO and GFS actually agree on something that should raise a few eyebrows...

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Even the FV3-GFS has thrown in the towel and now agrees with the other models that Florence will miss the Atlantic weakness.  

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The water temp anomalies kinda worry me. If Florence were to miss that trough, and go west like some of the major global models, it would encounter some 27-29C waters all the way up to Ocean city.

cdas-sflux_sst_watl_1.png

cdas-sflux_ssta_atl_1.png

Look at those anomalies..

 

 

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1 hour ago, hlcater said:

You cant be serious. Models will diverge again and I'm 100% certain of it. This "agreement" is essentially just luck.

Correct.  And ukie was supposedly out to lunch with Irma last year and totally nailed it before the big boys caught on.

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9 minutes ago, Jakkel138 said:

The water temp anomalies kinda worry me. If Florence were to miss that trough, and go west like some of the major global models, it would encounter some 27-29C waters all the way up to Ocean city.

cdas-sflux_sst_watl_1.png

cdas-sflux_ssta_atl_1.png

Look at those anomalies..

 

 

To add

 

sst_naQG3_ddc.gif

ohc_naQG3_ddc.gif

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Newbie here but have been passionate about weather my entire life. The closest analogy to this could be the 1933 Chesapeake and Potomac Hurricane. Here is an article from the Washington Post/ the track is even similar. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/08/23/eighty-years-ago-today-the-chesapeake-and-potomac-hurricane/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.b9d6d7921852

 

As a side, I’m realllly hoping this goes out to sea. I’m flying out of NYC on the 17th for a vacation in the Alps and a visit to Oktoberfest. Stay away Florence!!

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1 minute ago, CrystalCityWeatherGuy said:

Newbie here but have been passionate about weather my entire life. The closest analogy to this could be the 1933 Chesapeake and Potomac Hurricane. Here is an article from the Washington Post/ the track is even similar. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/08/23/eighty-years-ago-today-the-chesapeake-and-potomac-hurricane/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.b9d6d7921852

 

As a side, I’m realllly hoping this goes out to sea. I’m flying out of NYC on the 17th for a vacation in the Alps and a visit to Oktoberfest. Stay away Florence!!

We are not permitted to wish away historic weather events for personal gain. Code of silence like the mafia.  As far as the track I wouldn’t sweat it 8 days out even with this ominous op runs.  There are still plenty of recurve tracks.  

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4 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

We are not permitted to wish away historic weather events for personal gain. Code of silence like the mafia.  As far as the track I wouldn’t sweat it 8 days out even with this ominous op runs.  There are still plenty of recurve tracks.  

Noted!

What’s interesting about the 1933 storm is how similar the setup could be for Florence. Strong ridge over New England coupled with a storm passing to the south then west of DC. The result was a bigger storm surge in DC than in Norfolk. 11 feet for the former, 9 feet for the latter. 

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42 minutes ago, SN_Lover said:

876mb landfall. It's a slow mover too. This is king tide season too! 

 

gfs_pres_wind_06L_34.png

If the GFS were correct, Japan would get hit with sub 900mb storms once a week.

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2 minutes ago, CrystalCityWeatherGuy said:

Noted!

What’s interesting about the 1933 storm is how similar the setup could be for Florence. Strong ridge over New England coupled with a storm passing to the south then west of DC. The result was a bigger storm surge in DC than in Norfolk. 11 feet for the former, 9 feet for the latter. 

10 years ago I would have been all in.  Been burned by good looking models.  Cautiously interested.  

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It's safe to say the 12z UKMET is not going to happen.   Florence is already on the northern edge of the envelope. 

 

 

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6 minutes ago, Amped said:

If the GFS were correct, Japan would get hit with sub 900mb storms once a week.

You are such a weenie downer :(

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3 minutes ago, SN_Lover said:

You are such a weenie downer :(

Looks like their luck ran out with Typhoon Jebi. While not sub 900mb I feel it's the canary in the coal mine for the East Coast.

4 minutes ago, Amped said:

It's safe to say the 12z UKMET is not going to happen.   Florence is already on the northern edge of the envelope. 

 

 

That would probably be one of the better solutions to have so I don't see your point. A dive into Cuba or a meandering recurve sounds good for the US. A cute little Irma'esque dive to the SW. Conveniently into Cuba.

But yes guys. Cape May has been destroyed 3 times since Sandy on the models. (Matthew - Irma - Joaquin). Model land porn but hold up.

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5 minutes ago, SN_Lover said:

You are such a weenie downer :(

Common, the earths gotta save up energy for the 700mb 500mph that's going to kill us all on day 16. It can't waste it all on this thing.

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14 minutes ago, Amped said:

It's safe to say the 12z UKMET is not going to happen.   Florence is already on the northern edge of the envelope. 

 

 

Lol

You cant just toss models and say it's not going to happen

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