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Major Hurricane Florence

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31 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

The interaction between a hurricane this powerful and a ridge that is best described as moderately strong west of 70W is so full of uncertainty that nobody north of the projected landfall zone should assume they are in any kind of impact-free situation. I think the most likely outcome is for a fast recurvature through the Mid-Atlantic (after the NC landfall) and probably a track through southern New England and across Nova Scotia. Intensity would likely be down to cat-1 or weak cat-2 by the time the center reaches central Chesapeake and tropical storm from about PHL to PWM. I am not seeing much justification for the offshore stalls, loops or southwest motion scenarios. Late October 1963 offered as one example was a time of very strong high pressure ridge formation and six weeks later than this in the season.

SST values from the current location of the storm to the Cape Lookout to Hatteras zone currently average 29 C. There is almost no 500 mb wind field ahead of the storm at all excluding what it is producing locally. I don't see this ridge holding back the inevitable and most frequent solution of a steady recurve north and northeast over 48 hours after landfall. The impacts would be moderately severe for southeast VA, moderate for regions further north trending to less severe by NYC and New England. But nobody in those regions should be assuming they are just on the sidelines of Florence. Just my opinion and would say this scenario 50% likely, steady west then north movement 30% and the other loops and meanders about 20% likely. 

Nice write-up. We are in uncharted waters with this set-up. Who knows the exact strength of the HP in the Atlantic 3-5 days from know. No folks esp.in Va. Md. should not leave themselves unprepared. 

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