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WxWatcher007

Major Hurricane Florence

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Average of the recon fixes looks like about 295 degrees to me (give or take obviously).

 

I should clarify that I was referring to the late bend back W-WNW on the EPS ensemble, not current real time motion of Florence.

 

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They got 139kts at roughly 900mb in the NE eyewall which is right around 3243 feet above sea level. So she's basically already up to cat 5 intensity just above the surface.

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2 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

Yikes. From Michael Ventrice on Twitter.

image.thumb.png.c42b205d36e894c6d5be466b4feb1df4.png

 

This is unreadable. Why can't they zoom in?

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The takeaway is that most of those members have it at high end cat 4 or low end cat 5 at landfall.

Oh how I was raked a few days ago for saying this would likely be a cat 4 at landfall. Still a long way to go but crow is on the menu.

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2 minutes ago, WidreMann said:

Also I don't see how it maintains cat 2 status after landfall like so many of those members are showing.

Hugo was still a Cat 1 all the way to Charlotte. 

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2 minutes ago, WidreMann said:

Also I don't see how it maintains cat 2 status after landfall like so many of those members are showing.

Aren't those the tropical models that are kind of disconnected from land interaction? You can see the non-tropical models plunging down in intensity after 72 hours.

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I was just examining the 12z EPS tracks and the IR loop over the last several hours.  On its current trajectory, Florence would cross 65 West at about 27 North.  That coordinate is at the northern edge of the 12z EPS spread.

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5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The takeaway is that most of those members have it at high end cat 4 or low end cat 5 at landfall.

Oh how I was raked a few days ago for saying this would likely be a cat 4 at landfall. Still a long way to go but crow is on the menu.

You should probably dial back the gloating since you were also downplaying the threat to the Carolinas.

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What kind of steering/stalling influence can disturbance 1 (east of the Yucatan) have on Florence or is it a non-factor alltogether?

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