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WxWatcher007

Major Hurricane Florence

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1 minute ago, TriPol said:

Could be an Earl (2010) redux.

You can pretty much throw out the analogs with this storm. You will be hard pressed to find a system that moved on a NW trajectory into the coast. Almost all East coast threats come from the South, (Irene, Floyd, Bob, Gloria, LI express, September 1944 cane).

The only exception I can think of is Sandy. I hate to throw that name out there because as we all know that was a transitioning system which was being aided by baroclinic forces. 

At least now, Florence should be mainly tropical and therefore weakening on approach.

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1 minute ago, MarkSC said:

Pretty much stalled. Makes sense given the ridge.

Eventually the system gets caught up in the Westerlies but the ridge is blocking to the East. 

Anyway, so long to go with this one.

ecmwf_z500_mslp_atl_10.png

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49 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Ecmwf has been poor with this storm compared to the gfs but sure. In fact it's been the worst model at 72 and 96 hours.  

 

 

mae.png

This is surprising. Given the track record on TCs of GFS vs EC...

Agree that there is a bit too much bickering back and forth in the thread from run to run. As far as USEC impacts, OP and ENS runs have been like windshield wipers, with perhaps more of a lean toward a more westward

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Just now, TriPol said:

The 1903 NJ hurricane is the best analog I can find. Every storm has some kind of analog.

1903_Atlantic_hurricane_4_track.png

Yeah that was a good find. Never heard of that storm.

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8 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Euro at 204 is a devastating scenario.

Storm rides north up the coast.

Multi-billion dollar losses with this type of track. Doubt it happens as shown. But still not good to see. 

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The takeaway today is that every global model except the FV3 GFS has Flo missing the mid Atlantic weakness and heading toward the U.S beginning the turn near Bermuda.  This would be real coup for the FV3 if it is correct. It has been a good performer so far.

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8 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

I notice the new Euro is also leaving behind a bit of a weakness over the US in Gordon's wake, like the GFS/GEM are doing.

Looks like a remnant of the retrograding ULL currently east of the Bahamas... Strength and placement of that remnant weakness could definitely play a role in the future track of Florence, especially in regards as to how it effects placement and strength of the high(s) across NA.

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Florence is gaining latitude though. It's north of OFC track and model guidance a fair bit already. Yet, ironically the same issue of being much stronger than intensity guidance and more steered by mid level flow in the short term may place Florence in the stronger axis of wind shear, impeding the core this evening and leading to faster weakening. Florence's CDO is so very close to that 30 kts of shear analyzed 300mb WSW flow just to its NW.

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Felix 1995 could be another track that would be useful here. Not sure of surrounding setup and how it analogs to this one.

 

220px-Felix_1995_track.png

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1 minute ago, shaggy said:

Fenix could be another track that would be useful here. Not sure of surrounding setup and how it analogs to this one.

 

220px-Felix_1995_track.png

Felix from 1995?

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20 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Florence is gaining latitude though. It's north of OFC track and model guidance a fair bit already. Yet, ironically the same issue of being much stronger than intensity guidance and more steered by mid level flow in the short term may place Florence in the stronger axis of wind shear, impeding the core this evening and leading to faster weakening. Florence's CDO is so very close to that 30 kts of shear analyzed 300mb WSW flow just to its NW.

The GFS keeps Florence close to that shear axis over the next several days.

It appears that at least in the short term, the more poleward movement is because of a high to the East of Florence.

wg8dlm5-1.GIF

Probably the most astonishing aspect is how ideal the upper level environment is forecasted to be as the system approaches the coast. I mean, does it get any better than this?

gfs_shear_atl_31.png

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1 hour ago, MattPetrulli said:

interesting little SW dip in the mean there

Yeah the average track here on the Ukie would greatly increase the chances of the EC landfall and even then on this spread the storm will pass well north of the islands so if it does end up being a hit it will be one of a very few that was that far north that far east and gone on to hit the US.....

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BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Advisory Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018
500 PM AST Wed Sep 05 2018

...FLORENCE STRENGTHENS INTO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 46.6W
ABOUT 1110 MI...1790 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1295 MI...2080 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Florence was located
near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 46.6 West. Florence is moving
toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue through Thursday.  A turn toward the
west-northwest with a decrease in forward speed is forecast to begin
Thursday night, followed by a turn back toward the northwest early
next week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 130 mph (215 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Florence is now a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some weakening is forecast
during the next couple of days, but Florence is expected to remain
a powerful hurricane through early next week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 953 mb (28.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Florence will begin to affect Bermuda on
Friday.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg/Rhome

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Hurricane Florence Discussion Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018
500 PM AST Wed Sep 05 2018

Florence has continued to intensify during the day, with colder
cloud tops completely encircling a clearer eye. Both subjective and
objective Dvorak estimates have unanimously increased to T6.0/115
kt, and on this basis, the initial intensity is raised to 115 kt,
making Florence a category 4 hurricane.

Florence appears to be right along the southern edge of a zone of
stronger vertical shear and continues to defy the intensity
guidance, which has consistently been predicting weakening.  That
said, the last few satellite images indicate that the eye may be
becoming slightly disrupted by the shear.  Since the shear is
anticipated to increase during the next day or so, gradual weakening
is shown in the short-term official forecast, which lies along the
upper end of the guidance through 48 hours.  Beyond 48 hours,
vertical shear is anticipated to weaken, which would allow Florence
to intensify and potentially regain major hurricane status. However,
Florence will need to thread the needle between areas of stronger
shear for this to happen, and there is significant uncertainty in
the intensity forecast.  The new official intensity forecast is
little changed from before except to adjust upward to account for
the higher initial intensity.

The initial motion estimate remains northwestward, or 305/11 kt.
Strong upper-level ridging is forecast to strengthen north of
Florence over the next few days, forcing the hurricane to turn
toward the west-northwest through about 48 hours.  Track guidance is
good agreement during this period, and the official forecast is
essentially an update to the previous one.  Beyond day 2, a break
forms in the ridge, which results in a weakening of the steering
currents, a slowdown in Florence's forward speed, and a turn back
toward the northwest. The new official forecast is shifted south a
bit on days 3-5 to account for recent model trends and is closest to
the TVCN consensus.

It should be noted that there is considerable model ensemble spread
and run-to-run variability for Florence's track beyond day 5. Given
the large uncertainty at these time ranges, it is far too soon to
speculate what, if any, impacts Florence may have on the U.S. East
Coast next week. Regardless of Florence's eventual track, large
swells emanating from the hurricane will reach Bermuda beginning on
Friday, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents on the
island. Swells from Florence could also reach the U.S. East Coast by
early next week.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/2100Z 22.7N  46.6W  115 KT 130 MPH
 12H  06/0600Z 23.5N  48.1W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  06/1800Z 24.5N  49.7W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  07/0600Z 25.2N  51.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  07/1800Z 25.5N  52.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  08/1800Z 26.0N  55.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  09/1800Z 27.0N  57.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
120H  10/1800Z 29.0N  60.0W  105 KT 120 MPH

$$
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We're about to lose the visible on Florence for the night as the sun is already setting out there, but I personally don't see any signs of weakening.

The eye did look a little ragged for a frame or two, but it has since cleared out again.

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2 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

You can pretty much throw out the analogs with this storm. You will be hard pressed to find a system that moved on a NW trajectory into the coast. Almost all East coast threats come from the South, (Irene, Floyd, Bob, Gloria, LI express, September 1944 cane).

The only exception I can think of is Sandy. I hate to throw that name out there because as we all know that was a transitioning system which was being aided by baroclinic forces. 

At least now, Florence should be mainly tropical and therefore weakening on approach.

What about Irene. 

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