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WxWatcher007

Major Hurricane Florence

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Just now, WhiteoutWX said:

Landfall at Cape fear/Wilmington area at 84 hours.

Image? Link?

 

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Also, I know the global raw pressures shouldn’t be trusted, but if the pressure trend is right it shows it strengthening right up to landfall. 976 mb at 78 hrs, down to 957 mb at 84 hours landfall.

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9 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

then get these people under control.  the comparisons to irma based upon looks alone are worthless.

I'm going to start with you. Drop this now.

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1 minute ago, WhiteoutWX said:

Also, I know the global raw pressures shouldn’t be trusted, but if the pressure trend is right it shows it strengthening right up to landfall. 976 mb at 78 hrs, down to 957 mb at 84 hours landfall.

Ryan Maue thinks this is a solid 4 on landfall on the Euro.

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3 minutes ago, Chucktown81 said:

SC Governor McMaster just ordered the entire SC Coastline to be evacuated on Tuesday.

Any link to this? Can't find any sources.

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Just now, WhiteoutWX said:

Also, I know the global raw pressures shouldn’t be trusted, but if the pressure trend is right it shows it strengthening right up to landfall. 976 mb at 78 hrs, down to 957 mb at 84 hours landfall.

I believe that conditions support deepening on approach. Wind shear shouldn't be a problem and Florence will cross directly over the gulf stream.

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Considerably slower and farther north than 0z run. The 0z run at 108 hours had the center due south of Charlotte. 12z run at 96 hours is way back over Fayetteville. Can't tell if this is just slower or stalling (not sure there's really even a difference) but it's definitely making less westward progress than the 0z run.

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At 120 hours it's only moved north to the N.C./Va. line. Would be huge rainmaker for Va./WV, particular the highlands.

Honestly, this stall/meander is going to be virtually unforecastable -- steering is so faint, this thing could end up anywhere Day 5 and beyond (with HUGE implications on sensible weather). 

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12z run just a touch slower than 00z Euro. Shifts the majority of the heavy rain from NC/VA and northward. Not a good look through 120HR

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It keeps it’s speed until about Fayetville, NC. Then it slowly meanders northwestward from there to just northwest of RDU 24 hours later. The stall is definitely after landfall, though it is for sure stalling sooner than the 0z run. Though I should stay it never truly stalls like the GFS, just slows down.

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Euro slows down in Day 4 range, but then speeds up after and takes remnants up into Ohio Valley -- this holds down (relatively speaking, of course) rain totals. Don't see anything much over 15 inches. 

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