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WxWatcher007

Major Hurricane Florence

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The Canadian stalls the storm off ILM.  The Canadian has a worse record with tropicals than the GFS does overall so I think at this point the GFS is a toss.  If the UKMET does this too then maybe you start thinking about I but it too has had inconsistencies the last 2-3 runs 

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Levi Cowan mentioned that the environment near landfall will be unusually moist given the lack of any trough attempting to wrap dry air in like we normally see in East coast storms. He doesn’t expect the Southern half of the core to dry up like we normally see as a result.

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On a slightly different note, Folks are taking this seriously in NC. Even Inland here in Greensboro the water and batteries are getting gone fast. 

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1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The Canadian stalls the storm off ILM.  The Canadian has a worse record with tropicals than the GFS does overall so I think at this point the GFS is a toss.  If the UKMET does this too then maybe you start thinking about I but it too has had inconsistencies the last 2-3 runs 

Every single model stalls Florence. We know this. It's just where Florence will stall...

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8 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The Canadian stalls the storm off ILM.  The Canadian has a worse record with tropicals than the GFS does overall so I think at this point the GFS is a toss.  If the UKMET does this too then maybe you start thinking about I but it too has had inconsistencies the last 2-3 runs 

UKMET landfalls between Wilmington and Morehead City. 

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Past skill is no guarantee of future skill, but keep in mind that the GFS is the leading of the pack in track skill for Florence thus far. And it's not the only model showing the northern track. Among the TVCN members UKMET and COAMPS are also north of the NHC track.

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11 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

It’s not unusual for deep hurricanes to try and plow into the ridge like what the GFS is showing but obviously upwelling would never allow for those intensities with a forward speed like that.

The stall occurs right over the Gulf Stream. I think that critical detail complicates the modeling of intensity from that point forward. Might need to refer to an ocean physicist to figure out what would likely happen to SST’s if that track/stall verified. Fascinating nonetheless.

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1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

The stall occurs right over the Gulf Stream. I think that critical detail complicates the modeling of intensity from that point forward. Might need to refer to an ocean physicist to figure out what would likely happen to SST’s if that track/stall verified. Fascinating nonetheless.

very true.  what kind of upwelling would one expect with a constant flow of warm water being transported into the area of the stalled system.

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13 hours ago, ncskywarn said:

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro                                                                                                                                                                                                             

You can change the weather model and parameters listed under Model Charts.

Just curious, how does a hurricane of this magnitude affect the sea life as it passes through the ocean? How deep is the affect felt and what is the affect. Thanks

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16 minutes ago, Casualbrain said:

900 is what Camille was when it made landfall in '69.  I had relatives in Western VA that told me harrowing tales of Camille - 
 

Florence is going to be deadly - especially if it moves inland.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/08/19/unprecedented-rain-hurricane-camilles-deadly-dlood-in-the-blue-ridge-mountains/?utm_term=.74dea3b04940

Some places got more rain in 8 hours than NYC measured for the whole of 1965.

Very informative article, though I question the East of the Mississippi record, unless it's for a certain drainage basin area, or if "gallons" were actually cfs.  36 million gallons per minute is about 1/3 of the flow measured on 4/1/87 a bit north of Augusta, Maine in the Kennebec's record flood, a combo of snowmelt and 4-7" warm rain.  (There were no fatalities caused by that latter event, however.)

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1 minute ago, Tater Tot said:

Convection really blew up on AVN within the last two frames:

 

avn_lalo-animated.gif

Can you post a link to this? I can't seem to get mine to update for me

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2 minutes ago, hazwoper said:

very true.  what kind of upwelling would one expect with a constant flow of warm water being transported into the area of the stalled system.

Not sure the current is fast enough to replenish mixing losses as it typically runs at 1-1.5m/s (3-4mph), but it could offset it somewhat.

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Not sure the current is fast enough to replenish mixing losses as it typically runs at 1-1.5m/s (3-4mph), but it could offset it somewhat.

How deep is the warm layer? Some charts have 25C+ water down to like 60-75m off Charleston. And how deep does the upwelling usually go?


.

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10 minutes ago, SN_Lover said:

This South or north of 0z?

maybe 50 miles west of the 00Z instead of Drum Inlet into the Pam it comes in over Emerald Isle and moves NNW up Hwy 17....

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10 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Not sure the current is fast enough to replenish mixing losses as it typically runs at 1-1.5m/s (3-4mph), but it could offset it somewhat.

I've seen it closer to 5-6 mph and it is the fastest ocean current in the world.  of course it gets slower once past Hatteras and further out to sea

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The further north of ILM it comes in the lower the chance it’s greater than a 3 at landfall.  The history shows it’s significantly more likely to get a 4 south of there.  I wouldn’t expect anything better than a remote chance it landfalls as a 5.  Even in SC.  

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