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WxWatcher007

Major Hurricane Florence

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Wowzers ILM already forecasting ~115mph sustained winds with 130+mph gusts for Wilmington. 

7BE3A147-464D-408B-81BB-0AE72D850FF9.png

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1 minute ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

Eye is getting bigger and bigger

It’s fixing to close off the stronger convection and become a beaut

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And the EURO goes south of previous run at landfall. Appears to be NC/SC line and before it was right around Topsail Beach. Going to be interesting tomorrow,

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Just now, senc30 said:

And the EURO goes south of previous run at landfall. Appears to be NC/SC line and before it was right around Topsail Beach. Going to be interesting tomorrow,

May even be in SC by the look of it.  

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And it's still moving at a halfway decent pace from 96-120 hours.  Where and when this possible stall happens is one of the bigger forecast issues at this point.

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5 hours ago, yoda said:
BULLETIN
Hurricane Florence Advisory Number  43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 09 2018

...FLORENCE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY MONDAY NIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 57.7W
ABOUT 685 MI...1100 KM SE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 560 MI...905 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states should monitor
the progress of Florence.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Florence was
located near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 57.7 West. Florence is
moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion
is forecast to continue tonight. A west-northwestward motion with an
increase in forward speed is expected on Monday, and that motion is
forecast to continue through mid-week.  On the forecast track, the
center of Florence will move over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean
between Bermuda and the Bahamas Tuesday and Wednesday, and approach
the southeastern coast of the United States on Thursday.

Satellite data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased
to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts.  Florence is forecast
to rapidly strengthen to a major hurricane by Monday night, and is
expected to remain an extremely dangerous major hurricane through
Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and
portions of the U.S. East Coast.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

NHC mentions MH by Monday night.....this will be a major Hurricane by 11am Monday.

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3 hours ago, Windspeed said:

Well the ECMWF essentially modeled rivers out of valleys in this run...fe90e310c0fb7705a2c49910749fed8a.jpg

Trying not to be a Ass here..  But, a question.. How many of those big Reservoirs up there are "earthen", (capped with concrete) Dams up that way? Like Jordon & Lake Wylee et al? I believe they were prone, (worried) about Failures during Hugo & Floyd.. ??? Anyone? Asking for Hundreds of thousands *friends* downstream.. (With those anticipated rainfall amounts)...

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5AM update: 

 

672 WTNT41 KNHC 100906 CCA TCDAT1 Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 44...CORRECTED NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 500 AM AST Mon Sep 10 2018 Corrected to reflect that the 96 hour forecast point is inland. Florence is rapidly strengthening this morning.

The satellite presentation has improved markedly overnight with a small 10-n-mi wide-eye becoming apparent in infrared satellite pictures. The upper-level outflow continues to expand over the northern and northwestern portions of the storm, but is somewhat restricted over the southeastern quadrant. Dvorak satellite classifications from TAFB and SAB supported an intensity of around 80 kt at 0600 UTC, but with the cooling of the cloud tops around the eye since that time, the initial intensity has been increased to 90 kt for this advisory.

Satellite fixes indicate that Florence has turned west-northwestward (285 degrees), and is moving at a slightly faster forward speed of 8 kt. A high pressure ridge building to the north and northwest of Florence is expected to steer the hurricane west-northwestward to northwestward at a much faster forward speed over the southwest Atlantic during the next few days. After that time, a building ridge over the Ohio Valley is expected to cause a gradual reduction in the forward speed of the cyclone as it approaches the southeastern United States coastline.

The latest run of the ECMWF has shifted southwestward, along with its ensemble suite, while there was little overall change in the GFS and its ensemble. On the other hand, the UKMET shifted northeastward and is now along the right side of the guidance envelope. With these changes to the guidance, the overall spread has increased this cycle, however, the corrected consensus aids (FSSE and HCCA) are not much different than before, and the NHC track again follows these models very closely.

Users are cautioned to not focus on the exact forecast track as the average NHC errors at days 4 and 5 are about 140 and 180 n mi, respectively. Florence will be traversing very warm SSTs of around 29C and remain within a very favorable upper-level environment during the next couple of days. These conditions are expected to lead to significant strengthening during the next 12 to 24 hours, and Florence is forecast to be a very powerful major hurricane on its approach to the southeastern United States.

The NHC intensity forecast is slightly above all of the intensity guidance during the first 24 hours, and is then a blend of the FSSE and HCCA models. The global model guidance also increases the size of Florence's wind field during the next few days, and this has been reflected in the NHC wind radii forecast.

The NOAA G-IV jet is conducting another synoptic surveillance mission this morning in support of the 1200 UTC model cycle, and these flights will continue through Tuesday. A NOAA P-3 Hurricane Hunter aircraft is also scheduled to conduct a research mission into Florence this morning, with Air Force C-130 fix missions beginning late this afternoon.

Additional upper-air data are being collected across portions of the central and eastern U.S. via special 0600 UTC and 1800 UTC radiosonde launches.

Hopefully these data will help improve the track and intensity forecasts.

Key Messages: 1. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening impacts from Florence: storm surge at the coast, freshwater flooding from a prolonged and exceptionally heavy rainfall event inland, and damaging hurricane-force winds. While it is too soon to determine the exact timing, location, and magnitude of these impacts, interests at the coast and inland from South Carolina into the mid-Atlantic region should closely monitor the progress of Florence, ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, and follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East Coast will continue this week. These swells will result in life-threatening surf and rip currents.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 24.9N 58.9W 90 KT 105 MPH

12H 10/1800Z 25.4N 60.5W 110 KT 125 MPH

24H 11/0600Z 26.1N 63.1W 120 KT 140 MPH

36H 11/1800Z 27.3N 66.2W 125 KT 145 MPH

48H 12/0600Z 28.8N 69.3W 130 KT 150 MPH

72H 13/0600Z 32.2N 74.8W 125 KT 145 MPH

96H 14/0600Z 34.5N 78.1W 100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND

120H 15/0600Z 35.8N 79.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Brown

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43 minutes ago, SENC said:

Trying not to be a Ass here..  But, a question.. How many of those big Reservoirs up there are "earthen", (capped with concrete) Dams up that way? Like Jordon & Lake Wylee et al? I believe they were prone, (worried) about Failures during Hugo & Floyd.. ??? Anyone? Asking for Hundreds of thousands *friends* downstream.. (With those anticipated rainfall amounts)...

GSP long term doesn't talk about dams specifically but they are already beginning to bring to light some possible impacts after landfall in their long term. Here is part of it.

 

 Both global models and dynamic hurricane-
specific models seem to be converging on a track that brings
Florence into the Carolinas...though of course finer details, which
will be extremely important to local impacts, are plagued with
uncertainty this far out. Any impacts in our forecast area are still
roughly 5 days away, which leaves a very large window for forecast
refinement.

Rapid intensification is occurring even at the present time, and
Florence`s wind field will likely expand significantly as it drifts
westward. This could result in tropical-storm force winds being felt
in parts of our eastern forecast area by late next Thursday/early
Friday...though of course any wind threat will be track-dependent
and will continue to be assessed. The biggest potential change to
our local forecast could result from shifts in guidance once
Florence moves inland toward the second half of the medium range
period. We do have to contend with the usual uncertainty that
surrounds tropical systems and extended forecasts in general, but
some similarities in steering flow in the long range models once
Florence moves inland are coming to light. Florence (or whatever
remains by next weekend) actually becomes cut off from the mean
flow, and meanders slowly westward towards the spine of the
Appalachians late in the weekend and even into early next week.
Exactly where this will occur and what impacts may result are yet to
be determined, but if this solution were to verify, the heavy rain
threat for our area may be more widespread than what it appeared to
be previously. I will also note that though much of the focus of
this storm is on the wind threat, most deaths in tropical systems
result from water...specifically flooding, which could become a very
significant threat for inland areas. It is too far out to estimate
exact rainfall totals and locations, but it should be noted that a
significant inland flooding threat will likely materialize across
parts of the southeast as Florence stalls out late next week.

As far as expected impacts...don`t want to get too specific as far
as exact location at the moment considering the strong track-
dependence, but some realistic hazards to be prepared for include
the potential for flooding rainfall, mudslides in mountainous areas,
and strong winds capable of doing tree/power line damage. Stay aware
of changes in the forecast, and begin taking preparedness actions
now if you have not already done so. Very few people regret being
over-prepared.
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4 hours ago, Windspeed said:

Well the ECMWF essentially modeled rivers out of valleys in this run...fe90e310c0fb7705a2c49910749fed8a.jpg

Catawba river and all it's man made lakes would be done for

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13 minutes ago, Wow said:

Catawba river and all it's man made lakes would be done for

This is almost surreal. Like it’s fake or something. To have that much rainfall forecasted is just beyond me. Time to start stocking up on some household necessities. 

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A couple of interesting details on these 00/06z runs from last night. First is the continued trend of a stronger ridge over the Northeast-Quebec-Nova Scotia region before and during landfall. This has been going on for the better part of 48 hours and has gotten to the point that the amplification has now resulted in a significant change downstream to the trough that crests the ridge around tau 48-72. It continues to get more amplified and starts to erode the WAR more quickly as Florence approaches. This is what made the UK jump northeast (as well as the rest of the guidance that moved NE). If the trend continues, we could see a track shift. It's interesting that the EC shows more erosion of the WAR in the last run, but moved further southwest (as most of the weakening was on the north side of the ridge on that run).

Something to watch. It may or may not end up mattering in the end, but that's the main reason for the track shifts on some of the modeling as of late.

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28 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

A couple of interesting details on these 00/06z runs from last night. First is the continued trend of a stronger ridge over the Northeast-Quebec-Nova Scotia region before and during landfall. This has been going on for the better part of 48 hours and has gotten to the point that the amplification has now resulted in a significant change downstream to the trough that crests the ridge around tau 48-72. It continues to get more amplified and starts to erode the WAR more quickly as Florence approaches. This is what made the UK jump northeast (as well as the rest of the guidance that moved NE). If the trend continues, we could see a track shift. It's interesting that the EC shows more erosion of the WAR in the last run, but moved further southwest (as most of the weakening was on the north side of the ridge on that run).

Something to watch. It may or may not end up mattering in the end, but that's the main reason for the track shifts on some of the modeling as of late.

6z GEFS was a 100 mile shift east vs 0z through 96 hr. Mean is LF near OBX around hr 120. So much for the narrowing of possibilities...I’m strongly hedged towards the north/east side of guidance given the biases thus far, and the details you point out.

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When do you think hurricane watches might be issued? Is it 48 hours before the earliest possible arrival of TS force winds or 48 hours before the most reasonable forecasted arrival of TS winds?

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9 minutes ago, jjwxman said:

She's becoming a beast.  I wouldn't be surprised to see a Cat 3 status by 11am. goes16_vis_06L_201809101205.jpg?24.8301.6

ADT supports high end cat 2 currently

Current Intensity Analysis
 

                     UW - CIMSS                     
              ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE       
                    ADT-Version 9.0                
         Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm       

             ----- Current Analysis ----- 
     Date :  10 SEP 2018    Time :   114531 UTC
      Lat :   24:58:47 N     Lon :   59:28:47 W

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T# 
                5.3     5.4     5.8

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Someone in here, cant find the post, asked about the material dams are made of.  Most dams are earthen with some having a concrete or rolled clay core.

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