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WxWatcher007

Major Hurricane Florence

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1 minute ago, purduewx80 said:

watching and analyzing every single operational run is fairly pointless this far out. keep an eye on the ensembles and overall trends.

i think the best forecasting tool right now is the observed bias for the west atlantic ridge to be weakened too soon in the extended period. assuming that ridge will be longer-lived and more robust than modeled - especially on the GFS - has been useful going back through last winter.

This would favor a track closer to the coast then, correct?

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3 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

watching and analyzing every single operational run is fairly pointless this far out. keep an eye on the ensembles and overall trends.

i think the best forecasting tool right now is the observed bias for the west atlantic ridge to be weakened too soon in the extended period. assuming that ridge will be longer-lived and more robust than modeled - especially on the GFS - has been useful going back through last winter.

Yeah good point. 

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The 12z Euro has initialized the ridge as being more robust compared to the GFS. Perhaps someone can shed some light on the process behind the global integration of weather observations. In a perfect world, both models should have an identical initialization.

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2 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said:

The 12z Euro has initialized the ridge as much more robust compared to the GFS. Perhaps someone can shed some light on the process behind the global integration of weather observations. In a perfect world, both models should have an identical initialization.

? There's a slight difference north of the hurricane. 

gfs_z500aNorm_atl_1.png

ecmwf_z500aNorm_atl_1.png

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1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said:

? There's a slight difference north of the hurricane. 

gfs_z500aNorm_atl_1.png

ecmwf_z500aNorm_atl_1.png

It's rather significant for two model runs in the same suite. The upper level low over the Bahamas moving west faster can't be good.

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Just now, Vice-Regent said:

It's rather significant for two model runs in the same suite. The upper level low over the Bahamas moving west faster can't be good.

It's a metre or two at 500mb. The ecmwf has a superior initialization because of 4 d var. But it's not "much more robust". 

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2 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

It's a metre or two at 500mb. The ecmwf has a superior initialization because of 4 d var. But it's not "much more robust". 

I always assumed the parallel GFS was using 4 dvar initialization or something newer. If not it needs it ASAP. Lol. You can try to downplay it but the Euro is superior. It's not even close.

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3 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said:

I always assumed the parallel GFS was using 4 dvar initialization or something newer. If not it needs it ASAP. Lol. You can try to downplay it but the Euro is superior. It's not even close.

Ecmwf has been poor with this storm compared to the gfs but sure. In fact it's been the worst model at 72 and 96 hours.  

 

 

mae.png

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Looks like the Euro might be a close miss or hit the southern mid Atlantic. There isn't an exit path on this run.

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Euro looking nearly identical to 0Z so far.  I find it interesting that the FV3 GFS is an east outlier while the UKMET is a south outlier.  Both have been in the top 3 with performance this season.

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2 minutes ago, MarkSC said:

Euro looking nearly identical to 0Z so far.  I find it interesting that the FV3 GFS is an east outlier while the UKMET is a south outlier.  Both have been in the top 3 with performance this season.

12Z is a little further North compaired to 00Z

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The Euro looks nearly identical to the 00z run in terms of strength and positioning of the upper level features. 

The only difference is that landfall this run should be further North.

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Just now, ncskywarn said:

12Z is a little further North compaired to 00Z

It's going to be very close for the east coast on this run.

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The fact that seemingly any western Atlantic ridging for the last 3-4 years verifies stronger than expected you almost have to go with the fact if it misses the first trof (which it sure looks like it will) that it’s going to get close.  What we can’t know yet is if some other feature is able to kick it before it makes landfall but if it misses that first trof I think it’s likely to be at least a close miss 

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1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The fact that seemingly any western Atlantic ridging for the last 3-4 years verifies stronger than expected you almost have to go with the fact if it misses the first trof (which it sure looks like it will) that it’s going to get close.  What we can’t know yet is if some other feature is able to kick it before it makes landfall but if it misses that first trof I think it’s likely to be at least a close miss 

Agreed. I think this is why climo really doesn't apply to this system.

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1 minute ago, olafminesaw said:

Runs right into the ridge which seems odd. I agree, Mr. Ridge, Florence is tasty.

ecmwf_z500aNorm_eus_9.png

It's not moving North here. It's moving NW.

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