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WxWatcher007

Major Hurricane Florence

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Decent octane under it, it's going to run into some AV Gas the next couple of days.

Water
Depth Temperature
0m (0ft) 27.32°C (81.2°F)
1.5m (4.9ft) 27.32°C (81.2°F)
3m (9.8ft) 27.32°C (81.2°F)
4.5m (14.8ft) 27.32°C (81.2°F)
6m (19.7ft) 27.32°C (81.2°F)
7.5m (24.6ft) 27.32°C (81.2°F)
9m (29.5ft) 27.32°C (81.2°F)
10.5m (34.4ft) 27.32°C (81.2°F)
12m (39.4ft) 27.32°C (81.2°F)
13.5m (44.3ft) 27.32°C (81.2°F)
15m (49.2ft) 27.32°C (81.2°F)
16.5m (54.1ft) 27.32°C (81.2°F)
18m (59.1ft) 27.32°C (81.2°F)
19.5m (64ft) 27.30°C (81.1°F)
21m (68.9ft) 27.29°C (81.1°F)
22.5m (73.8ft) 27.29°C (81.1°F)
24m (78.7ft) 27.28°C (81.1°F)
25.5m (83.7ft) 27.28°C (81.1°F)
27m (88.6ft) 27.28°C (81.1°F)
28.5m (93.5ft) 27.26°C (81.1°F)
30m (98.4ft) 27.24°C (81.0°F)
31.5m (103.3ft) 27.23°C (81.0°F)
33m (108.3ft) 27.22°C (81.0°F)
34.5m (113.2ft) 27.20°C (81.0°F)
36m (118.1ft) 27.20°C (81.0°F)
37.5m (123ft) 27.16°C (80.9°F)
39m (128ft) 27.10°C (80.8°F)
40.5m (132.9ft) 26.96°C (80.5°F)
42m (137.8ft) 26.82°C (80.3°F)
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Appears a touch faster at 96. Was thinking landfall thursday night late but looks like earlier to me

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2 minutes ago, Jakkel138 said:

Have the elements even come into play to build the atlantic ridge as advertised by the models yet, or are they too early and too strong with the ridge?

Still too early.  The 00z and 12z models do contain data gathered from the Gulfstream IV and Recon, however, so there's that, at least.   I'd argue that the recent reverse in trend to a more poleward trajectory with the consensus of the models may be a possible precursor to the building ridge being weaker than initially modeled...allowing Florence to exploit the weakness with its own growing size and intensity.

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What is interesting to note is the EURO has been inconsent on the placement of the HP and its stregnth. At 96 it's in NH/VT, instead of Binghamton, sparing Charleston another Hugo. What will be interesting to see is if the HP retreats Eastward and allows Florence to come up the coast.

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1 minute ago, SN_Lover said:

GFS is all over the place and European most consistent.

As usual... Just sad at this point. 

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Very good agreement between the EC, UK, HWRF, HMON and FV3GFS on the landfall point.   Landfall intensity 937-970mb with most clustered around 955mb.

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3 minutes ago, SN_Lover said:

GFS is all over the place and European most consistent.

Not really. It has been consistent with the stall along the OBX for quite a few runs now. I don't currently buy or favor its solution, but it's not really wildly flopping around with it.

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5 minutes ago, TriPol said:

What is interesting to note is the EURO has been inconsent on the placement of the HP and its stregnth. At 96 it's in NH/VT, instead of Binghamton, sparing Charleston another Hugo. What will be interesting to see is if the HP retreats Eastward and allows Florence to come up the coast.

Can't come up close record ridge over the Northeast it will die over NC

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5 minutes ago, TriPol said:

What is interesting to note is the EURO has been inconsent on the placement of the HP and its stregnth. At 96 it's in NH/VT, instead of Binghamton, sparing Charleston another Hugo. What will be interesting to see is if the HP retreats Eastward and allows Florence to come up the coast.

High Pressure barely moves over 24 hours and Florence just drops half the Atlantic Ocean over NC. Not going up the coast at all.

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Euro is downright scary for my region. The stall would be a continuous SE/E flow over the eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge. Worst possible place for the storm to go.

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7 minutes ago, Wow said:

12z Euro.. Hit at ILM and drives it inland just SW of GSO by 120.  

41YJ8jC.png

Downright scary man for flooding purposes for NC/VA. Going to be some epic totals on the maps coming out with that solution.

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11 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

12z ECMWF drives Florence well inland over the upper Piedmont.4ab0675fef69cadcebd8ed8bf7593c89.gif

Could be some catastrophic flooding across parts of NC and VA if that verifies.

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13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The wind and surge won't be the main story with this.

Seems increasingly possible, as long as models don't trend to a more progressive movement after landfall.  The flooding potential may end up drowning out (no pun intended) the other storm effects. Almost like an eastern US version of Harvey.  

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My apologies. Yesterday's 12z map is bad enough regardless. But I jumped the gun. I thought the totals looked a little weak on the western portion of NC/VA with today's track and they will probably be worse.

 

..and over 25+ for Roanoke and a large region.

 

 

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Just now, Hoosier said:

Seems increasingly possible, as long as models don't trend to a more progressive movement after landfall.  The flooding potential may end up drowning out (no pun intended) the other storm effects. Almost like an eastern US version of Harvey.  

Especially with a cat 3 LF...extensive coastal damage, but nothing catastrophic or extreme.

Flooding may be catastrophic..

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21 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The wind and surge won't be the main story with this.

I don’t know if I’d say that to be honest.

sure the flooding will be awful, but a major landfalling hurricane on Willmington would be a huge story

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