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WxWatcher007

Major Hurricane Florence

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As someone who lives on a relatively flat road in Raleigh and parents who live in Wilmington, this is a less than ideal trend. Obviously still far away and lot of time for things to change. I've seen when rain and winds would start on the coast, but does anyone have a breakdown on when inland like Raleigh would start getting in on it? 

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I'm no hurricane expert but not sure what satellite images NHC is looking at. The clouds tops have been very cold all night esp around the center. I'm shocked this hasn't been upgraded to hurricane yet

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Convection is still more robust in the northern semicircle. Still fighting some dry air to the south I think. Compact circulation though, which as we know means intensity changes can rapidly occur. I think we will see a strengthening trend very shortly as it continues to mix out drier air.

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2 minutes ago, WhiteoutWX said:

Convection is still more robust in the northern semicircle. Still fighting some dry air to the south I think. Compact circulation though, which as we know means intensity’s changes can rapidly occur. I think we will see a strengthening trend very shortly as it continues to mix out drier air.

What the heck happened to the easy link from the NHC to zoom in on a storm? The new system is tons more complex ... I'm lost.

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51 minutes ago, Jakkel138 said:

High pressure can't form as fast as modelled because of the impacts of that disturbance north of Florence on it. Probably some eroding before the disturbance is gone

No SC landfall like that. Still possible but less likely right now

I find it funny sometimes when weather weenies think they can integrate the primitive equations in their heads (and therefore deduce that a model is "wrong") better than state-of-the-art numerical models on supercomputers...

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Current consensus solution looks very similar to Fran in 1996.  Inland rainfall, as modeled, could be catastrophic across southern and western Virginia (especially with recent rainfall).

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4 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

An eye looks to be clearing out in the middle of the CDO on the latest sat imagery.

Florence seems to be rapidly intensifying right now.

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2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Florence seems to be rapidly intensifying right now.

With a closed ring of fresh convection around the center and virtually all of the dry air near the center gone, it certainly looks that way. This thing could be a powerful buzzsaw by later tonight.

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50 minutes ago, jpeters3 said:

I find it funny sometimes when weather weenies think they can integrate the primitive equations in their heads (and therefore deduce that a model is "wrong") better than state-of-the-art numerical models on supercomputers...

I'm jealous of people who don't know you.

Recon halfway to florence.

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14 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

With a closed ring of fresh convection around the center and virtually all of the dry air near the center gone, it certainly looks that way. This thing could be a powerful buzzsaw by later tonight.

Yeah really looking good now. Dry air appears to have choked out and she is ready to go. Gonna be a good looking storm in the next 24 hours.

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Anyone know why the AF hurricane hunters aren't doing anything with Florence right now? I expected to see a busy schedule today and tomorrow with the rapid intensification that has been forecast (not to mention getting all the data possible for a likely landfalling major) and there's absolutely nothing. There hasn't been much of anything to do all season, seems very odd to ignore what is forecast to be a landfall inside of 120 hours. For those wondering, the first scheduled fix for them is 2330z tomorrow.

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1 minute ago, Dunkman said:

Anyone know why the AF hurricane hunters aren't doing anything with Florence right now? I expected to see a busy schedule today and tomorrow with the rapid intensification that has been forecast (not to mention getting all the data possible for a likely landfalling major) and there's absolutely nothing. There hasn't been much of anything to do all season, seems very odd to ignore what is forecast to be a landfall inside of 120 hours.

A plane is currently on its way for a visit.

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Just now, fourseasons said:

A plane is currently on its way for a visit.

It's the NOAA plane on what is considered to be a research mission.

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Just now, fourseasons said:

A plane is currently on its way for a visit.

But it's a non-tasked NOAA mission rather than AF recon. Not that it's any less important - but usually we have multiple flights going into storms like this.

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362 
NOUS42 KNHC 071616
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1215 PM EDT FRI 07 SEPTEMBER 2018
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 08/1100Z TO 09/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2018
         TCPOD NUMBER.....18-106

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. HURRICANE FLORENCE
       FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 49
       A. 09/0000Z
       B. NOAA9 0106A FLORENCE
       C. 08/1730Z
       D. NA
       E. NA
       F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: NOAA G-IV SYNOPTIC
       SURVEILLANCE MISSIONS AROUND HURRICANE FLORENCE
       FOR 10/0000Z AND 10/1200Z.
    3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 12-HRLY FIXES ON
       HURRICANE FLORENCE AT 10/2330Z.
    4. REMARKS: A NOAA P-3 RESEARCH MISSION WILL BE FLOWN INTO
       HURRICANE FLORENCE DEPARTING TXKF AT 08/1200Z, SFC TO
       20,000 FT.

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Yeah, that's 7:30 eastern tomorrow night. Anyway, I expect to see a mission added and flying this afternoon unless the NOAA plane finds Florence much weaker than it looks on satellite right now. And I'm sure there's an explanation, I just can't come up with one.

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Yeah, that's 7:30 eastern tomorrow night. Anyway, I expect to see a mission added and flying this afternoon unless the NOAA plane finds Florence much weaker than it looks on satellite right now. And I'm sure there's an explanation, I just can't come up with one.

Funding.


.

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7 minutes ago, Dunkman said:

Yeah, that's 7:30 eastern tomorrow night. Anyway, I expect to see a mission added and flying this afternoon unless the NOAA plane finds Florence much weaker than it looks on satellite right now. And I'm sure there's an explanation, I just can't come up with one.

It could be funding, range, equipment availability - really any number of things. 

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They are flying Olivia in the Pacific and are going to be flying Issac every 6 hours in a couple days also.  Probably just logistically getting planes and personnel in place for a busy 10-14 days coming up.  

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