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WxWatcher007

Major Hurricane Florence

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16 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Hazel was going through extratropical enhancement and approaching quickly. Hugo was between a nice trough over the gom and a ridge to the northeast causing very quick motion on approach. It's just so hard to get a 4 this far north. 

Does seem hard to believe it could make landfall as a cat 4 if the forward motion slows dramatically prior to landfall.  Of course if the significant slowdown occurs after landfall then all bets are off. 

I think the only shot to get this as a cat 4 into the coast in the slow motion scenario would be if it overachieves to cat 5 in the meantime and then sort of hangs on to cat 4 status toward landfall.

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3 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

00z early cycle is just the 18z model with adjustment for initial position. You won't see the dropsonde advantage until the regular 00z models run. 

Oh.

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3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Does seem hard to believe it could make landfall as a cat 4 if the forward motion slows dramatically prior to landfall.  Of course if the significant slowdown occurs after landfall then all bets are off. 

I think the only shot to get this as a cat 4 into the coast in the slow motion scenario would be if it overachieves to cat 5 in the meantime and then sort of hangs on to cat 4 status toward landfall.

Yeah maybe it can hit as a 130 mph still which is technically a Cat 4 if the storm is really a 140-145 where the NHC has the current 5 day plot......I mean Fran was a ass kicker and she was "only" 115 mph....so this at least has the potential to be the strongest hit in NC in at least 22 years....

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43 minutes ago, Jakkel138 said:

Not with these record warm waters, should be easier to get a higher intensity than it normally would. I mean, waters are 28-29C ahead of florence. But a number of other factors are potential inhibitors, like shear, that could prevent this thing from becoming any stronger. But it's safe to say that mid-cat 3 to low end cat 4 is a good bet right now.

The record warm waters cannot be ignored but the atmospheric dynamics and the interaction of the westerlies probably would be the reason Nick is saying it is hard to get a category 4 this far north.  Now with that said Category 2-3 coming northbound would do enough damage with wind but especially flooding rains especially if this storm ventures up into the Mid Atlantic into Pennsylvania where all water ways and reservoirs are full to capacity.  I mean really we received inches and inches of rain in August, had 3 inches in two hours last night, and 2-4" coming tomorrow into Monday from Remnant Gordon.  Tough times ahead for sure if Florence moves like the 18z GFS depicts. 

 

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7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Convection appears to be wrapping around the center in the past few frames.

Can someone post a link for this? TIA

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7 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Invest 94 L also exploding too now over top of Bermuda I wonder what if any effect that Invest 94L has on Florence? 

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=94L&product=ir

Center of circulation looks really weak in that, and displaced way west of the convection. Looks like its at around 30N and 70W. Looks like a big "meh" to me.

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10 minutes ago, MUWX said:

Can someone post a link for this? TIA

rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=14653.5&y=5684.5&z=5&im=24&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=6&p%5B1%5D=31&opacity%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B1%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&hidden%5B1%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

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26 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

The record warm waters cannot be ignored but the atmospheric dynamics and the interaction of the westerlies probably would be the reason Nick is saying it is hard to get a category 4 this far north.  Now with that said Category 2-3 coming northbound would do enough damage with wind but especially flooding rains especially if this storm ventures up into the Mid Atlantic into Pennsylvania where all water ways and reservoirs are full to capacity.  I mean really we received inches and inches of rain in August, had 3 inches in two hours last night, and 2-4" coming tomorrow into Monday from Remnant Gordon.  Tough times ahead for sure if Florence moves like the 18z GFS depicts. 

 

The mid levels are where its at...same thing with snowstorms.

No one is guaranteed snowfall just because its cloudy cold at the surface...it needs to be favorable in the mid levels, both thermally and moisture wise.

Warm water is just the foundation.

Mid levels of the atmosphere are inherently more hostile for tropical systems above 30 degrees in latitude.

 

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14 minutes ago, AndrewJL said:

Center of circulation looks really weak in that, and displaced way west of the convection. Looks like its at around 30N and 70W. Looks like a big "meh" to me.

seems to me the convection is starting to wrap around the center...

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2 minutes ago, Disco-lemonade said:

06L_tracks_latest.png

Hot off the press

edit ah darn it did the thing

 

 

Shows 12z unless you click on it

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So did North and South Carolina.
These are done because it starts the chain of events needed for disaster declarations and therefore a freeing up of federal funds.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

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2 minutes ago, Disco-lemonade said:

Hot off the press

edit ah darn it did the thing

 

 

Umm... May need to update that link.

 Florence is a go for main engine “re-start” and booster ignition, RI looks likely starting tonight and perhaps continuing to Monday.

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4 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

These are done because it starts the chain of events needed for disaster declarations and therefore a freeing up of federal funds.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk
 

Yup.  It's what I do for a living.

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2 minutes ago, WeatherNC said:

Umm... May need to update that link.

 Florence is a go for main engine “re-start” and booster ignition, RI looks likely starting tonight and perhaps continuing to Monday.

There I count 3 towers. Past 48 hours it's been supported by 1. All engine's go!  

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Yup.  It's what I do for a living.
Ah. Apologies. My line of work as well

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

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Before I am crucified, I know it's the NAM and the worst model. But the Ridge is stronger on the NAM and it's faster. This is the first glimpse of the new data's output. 

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