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WxWatcher007

Major Hurricane Florence

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The euro and gfs are similar in location but euro gets flo inland and stall. The Ukmet also agrees with that. As scary as the 18z gfs was, I would lean against that  scenario playing out. 

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Before you toss the ridiculous QPF maps, just remember how we all tossed them prior to Harvey and we all know how that turned out. Not exactly the same setup, but a stall or small loop could produce totals in that neighborhood.

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13 minutes ago, jewell2188 said:

Annnnnd west of 95 it’s pathetic lol

 

12 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Yea amazing cutoff.

Looks similar to Irene.

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16 minutes ago, jewell2188 said:

Annnnnd west of 95 it’s pathetic lol

Yeah but see how it continues to edge west...another tick and it’s a different story..we are 150 hours away...don’t wrote this off yet

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A banter thread has been created. General chit chat, weenie wishcasts and subjects that aren't directly about Florence (e.g. what's the best way to hook up a generator?) are the types of things that go there.

Being that this is still several days out and not locked in to a major U.S. impact, we have been very loose with moderation so far.  This will change as the storm gets closer.

 

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1 minute ago, SN_Lover said:

Virginia declared a state of emergency 

So did North and South Carolina.

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2 things I've thought about this afternoon regarding Florence:

1) The 18z GFS ensembles (see image) have been more agreement than normal. Sure, there are a few simulations that plow south Carolina or take it out to sea, but by and large they're pretty tightly packed. It's only the 18z, but trends have to start somewhere.

2) Is there any reason to think that the 18z operational GFS might be correct regarding that stall over eastern NC? I'd assume that as the ridge moves east the storm would move northward or northwestward, but maybe I'm missing something here...

06L_gefs_latest.png

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1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

Got my wish this run. 12”+ of rain all the way into New England.

I don't want that much rain up here, that would still be devasting for tons of people along the rivers around here. 

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I'd personally go with about a 75 percent chance of landfall and forecast a high end 2 or low end 3 at landfall with the best opportunity in NC. Combination of slowing motion near the coast and increasing SSWerly shear at 108 and 120 hours via ships (19 and 28 kt, respectively) leads to weakening after peaking as a 4. 

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

A banter thread has been created. General chit chat, weenie wishcasts and subjects that aren't directly about Florence (e.g. what's the best way to hook up a generator?) are the types of things that go there.

Being that this is still several days out and not locked in to a major U.S. impact, we have been very loose with moderation so far.  This will change as the storm gets closer.

 

Much appreciated! Thank you, thank you.

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I'd personally go with about a 75 percent chance of landfall and forecast a high end 2 or low end 3 at landfall with the best opportunity in NC. Combination of slowing motion near the coast and increasing SSWerly shear at 108 and 120 hours via ships (19 and 28 kt, respectively) leads to weakening after peaking as a 4. 

 Did you see the ECMWF 400 and 300 mb charts? That's my hope that there will be some southerly shear off flow from the Florida ULL and TUTT over the Greater Antilles prior to landfall. However, 200 mb flow will likely remain favorable for outflow channel ventilation to the SW and East with the strong cutoff east of Bermuda.

 

 

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, Windspeed said:

 

Did you see the ECMWF 400 and 300 mb charts? That's my hope that there will be some southerly shear off flow from the Florida ULL and TUTT over the Greater Antilles prior to landfall. However, 200 mb flow will likely remain favorable for outflow channel ventilation to the SW and East with the strong cutoff east of Bermuda.

 

 

Yeah. I mean the gfs has the shear on the ships analysis too. 

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Hazel was going through extratropical enhancement and approaching quickly. Hugo was between a nice trough over the gom and a ridge to the northeast causing very quick motion on approach. It's just so hard to get a 4 this far north. 

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3 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

Hazel was going through extratropical enhancement and approaching quickly. Hugo was between a nice trough over the gom and a ridge to the northeast causing very quick motion on approach. It's just so hard to get a 4 this far north. 

Not with these record warm waters, should be easier to get a higher intensity than it normally would. I mean, waters are 28-29C ahead of florence. But a number of other factors are potential inhibitors, like shear, that could prevent this thing from becoming any stronger. But it's safe to say that mid-cat 3 to low end cat 4 is a good bet right now.

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1 minute ago, Jakkel138 said:

Not with these record warm waters, should be easier to get a higher intensity than it normally would. I mean, waters are 28-29C ahead of florence. But a number of other factors are potential inhibitors, like shear, that could prevent this thing from becoming any stronger. But it's safe to say that mid-cat 3 to low end cat 4 is a good bet right now.

I think someone mentioned a few pages ago that there's an INVEST near the Bahamas that could potentially inhibit development.

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FV3 GFS direct hit to MHX then inland over eastern NC.....a good 100 miles west of the GFS...also lost that annoying loop...it does stall out over NE NC/Tidewater for a day or so but weakens alot.....turns into quite a snowstorm up in Canada as well

1602199854_fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_23(1).thumb.png.25fb46df9e3b974d9cf3c6aca8b7d2bf.png

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Just now, drscottsmith said:

Can someone please remind when NHC will begin issuing advisories more often (I believe it is every three hours)?

Thank you all - enjoying following the commentary.

NHC does 3 hourly advisories once headlines(TS watch etc.) are issued. 

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